More positive reaction on Chapman

[OnBaseMachine]

I was only able to watch Chapman's first inning of work today but he sure was impressive in that first inning. He made Tulowitzki look foolish on a 79 mph changeup, and then the next two batters made weak contact. I didn't think anything of it at the time, but I noticed his velocity was down from where it was in his previous outings. Even though it doesn't sound like his back problem is serious, this will probably cost him a chance at starting the season with the Reds. I'd be cautious with him and I'm sure the Reds will.

[icehole3]

I didnt know he had a back problem, he looked pretty bad yesterday, wild and threw in the low 90's that second inning, he kind of came unglued after the error, I will say this, the double wasnt a bomb it was just in the gap, he should be given another shot IMO.

[Ron Madden]

Originally Posted by icehole3

I didnt know he had a back problem, he looked pretty bad yesterday, wild and threw in the low 90's that second inning, he kind of came unglued after the error, I will say this, the double wasnt a bomb it was just in the gap, he should be given another shot IMO.

I'd take it easy with him for a few days.

[nate]

He was good in the first inning. Quite frankly, I think he would've gotten out of the second inning but the error by Sutton on the play up the middle extended the inning as did Francisco's dropped ball. Two outs given away by the defense led to...what...five runs?

He didn't start getting hittable and wild until after the Sutton muff.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by westofyou

I'm not saying throw him in the mix, but if his talent is ready and the club is ready for that impact then he pushes his way in, he'd be like the 1800th 22 year old to pitch MLB, not exactly an outlier.

He'd be an outlier in that he would be a 22 year old who never pitched in the minors.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

He'd be an outlier in that he would be a 22 year old who never pitched in the minors.

He threw the ball for Cuba for some time, it's not like he was just handed a ball this year for the first time.

Maybe he's not ready, maybe he is, but if he is and the Reds need to win I'd say that's more important now than how many years until he can be FA.

[Roy Tucker]

Chapman's Cuban stats...

http://soxbronzetitan.wordpress.com/...-league-stats/

[icehole3]

Originally Posted by westofyou

He threw the ball for Cuba for some time, it's not like he was just handed a ball this year for the first time.

Maybe he's not ready, maybe he is, but if he is and the Reds need to win I'd say that's more important now than how many years until he can be FA.

thats what I've said day one, screw the arb clock and everything else this town is starving for a winner, BCast is hungry for one, if theyre in the race it sounds like BCast will throw his money behind this team, let the kid start in the bigs, if he fails send him down

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by nate

He was good in the first inning. Quite frankly, I think he would've gotten out of the second inning but the error by Sutton on the play up the middle extended the inning as did Francisco's dropped ball. Two outs given away by the defense led to...what...five runs?

He didn't start getting hittable and wild until after the Sutton muff.

Yep. If Sutton turns that double play, Chapman throws two shutout innings and fewer pitches.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by nate

He was good in the first inning. Quite frankly, I think he would've gotten out of the second inning but the error by Sutton on the play up the middle extended the inning as did Francisco's dropped ball. Two outs given away by the defense led to...what...five runs?

He didn't start getting hittable and wild until after the Sutton muff.

To be fair to Chapman, it's since come out that he's been dealing with a tight back. He was able to get it loose in the 1st inning but not the second. He basically stopped throwing his fastball because of it.

Just one more example of why not to read much in to ST stats and small samples generally. There are idiosyncratic events that create so much noise as to make generalization pointless.

[lollipopcurve]

Yep. If Sutton turns that double play, Chapman throws two shutout innings and fewer pitches.

The ball Fowler hit was a real rocket, a hooking line drive short hop off the hard AZ dirt. Tough chance for Sutton.

It was what it was -- Chapman couldn't get loose, his velo was down and he was getting hit hard.

[nate]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

To be fair to Chapman, it's since come out that he's been dealing with a tight back. He was able to get it loose in the 1st inning but not the second. He basically stopped throwing his fastball because of it.

Just one more example of why not to read much in to ST stats and small samples generally. There are idiosyncratic events that create so much noise as to make generalization pointless.

Yep and as Cowboy kept pointing out (between Thom asking him about his seemingly superhuman capacity for ice cream), it may've been a _good_ thing for him him to experience a little adversity. Plus, who knows how long he would've hid the back problem had it not manifested itself in a subpar performance.

[OnBaseMachine]

From John Fay's blog:

Dusty Baker wouldn’t speculate after the game yesterday, but you’ve got to think that Chapman won’t be in the rotation to start the year. The Reds need a fifth starter on April 11. Chapman’s only gone three innings once. He’s sure to be shut down for a few days at least, so it will be impossible for him to get his pitch count to where it needs to be in a little over two weeks.

I think the Reds prefer that he starts the year in the minors. But if he had pitched four more scoreless yesterday, it would have been difficult not to give him the fifth starter spot.

Chapman’s stuff is major league-ready. “No one in baseball has better stuff,” an NL scout told me before yesterday’s outing.

more from Fay on Chapman:
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...y-guess-is-no/

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

From John Fay's blog:

more from Fay on Chapman:
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...y-guess-is-no/

Wow. That's one smart accounting of where we now stand. Almost as smart as a certain RZer who said this yesterday:

...Back to the question of where Chapman starts the year, I think today cinches it. He will start somewhere in the minors. The reason is that he will not be ready to pitch 6 innings two weeks from now. They'll shut him down a bit after this back issue and that will leave them too little time to stretch him out to 6 innings. Dusty doesn't like 5 inning pitchers and the effect that has on his bullpen. This has nothing to do with his stuff.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Roy Tucker

Chapman's Cuban stats...

http://soxbronzetitan.wordpress.com/...-league-stats/

Doesn't look to me like he's ready for the load.