Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

[Strikes Out Looking]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

. Other teams' young arms are light years ahead of ours: Hanson, Jimenez, Jurrjens. Heck, Brad Penny would be the Reds' ace.

Yes, Jurrjens has been lights out! He couldn't even make it out of the fourth inning the other night in San Diego.

The Reds pitchers have started out just fine--not perfect, but they are consistently getting into the sixth inning and keeping the game close. They've played 9 games so far, and won 5 of them.

I give Homer at least ten starts before I really worry about him. The Reds still have Wood, Chapman and Maloney at AAA and Edison may be back in the second half of the season.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

There's no way I'd give up on him--the guy is only 23 years old. I'd be willing to put him in the bullpen until things start to come together. Who would take his spot in the rotation? I'm open to Owings having it for a while, but I also wouldn't mind optioning Ondrusek and calling up Wood.

I agree with most of what you have posted. As stated by membengal before, I would give him all of this year to figure it out unless he is a 7+ ERA by the end of May. I would think that Wood would be the next one knocking on the door for the starting rotation since it was down to him and Leake. I also would not want to have Owings in the rotation at all. Let him stay where he has had some success and let him thrive in a role he was meant for. I also want to give Ondrusek a little bit of leash. He has flashed potential to me and I think he has the stuff necessary to be successful.

This being said, I really think Homer will start to zero in and we will be laughing at the end of May looking back at this thread. Or at least that is what my heart is feeling...

[Spring~Fields]

I don't know the answers.

Other than the season is young, give him more time, just as it has seemed justifiable and warranted for the other players.

			2010 BABIP 	Total BABIP 	2007 	2008 	2009
Arthur Rhodes 		.155		.295			.319	.249
Aaron Harang 		.168		.315		.298	.317	.339
Micah Owings 		.180		.375		.280	.302	.286
Michael Leake 		.225
Bronson Arroyo 		.228		.334		.318	.321	.270
Francisco Cordero 	.287		.315		.341	.314	.301
Mike Lincoln 		.304		.304			.284	.283
Johnny Cueto 		.350		.305			.309	.296
Homer Bailey 		.381		.320		.286	.376	.306
Nick Masset 		.396		.308		.357	.327	.250
Logan Ondrusek		.403
Daniel Ray Herrera 	.532		.325			.415	.309

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?...n=2010&month=0

[OnBaseMachine]

Bailey's stuff is still good. I went back and checked, he had 13 swings and misses last night. His biggest problem right now is location. How many times do you see him get ahead 1-2 and then lose the batter to a walk.

IIRC, Bailey was always a slow starter in the minors and never really got things going until May. Obviously starting slow isn't ideal for the team but hopefully he can get things going soon.

[TheNext44]

I actually have been encouraged by what I've seen in Bailey so far this year.

He has had two starts in which he had no command, especially with his offspeed pitches. And yet, he didn't get clobbered in either of them.

That's a sign of a major league pitcher. He didn't get upset and start trying to overthrow, he simply toughed it out, and in both cases, kept the Reds in the game for at least 5 innings.

It's also a sign of how good his stuff is. He really looked terrible out there last night, and the Marlins are good offensive team, but they couldn't knock him out. Even with no command, he was able to skate by without getting blown out.

Now, he may never get his command back, and may pitch like this all year, in which case, he ends up in middle relief. But he I doubt that will happen, and am pretty confident that he will have enough starts where he does have his command, that turns out to be decent starter overall.

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Probably. I think this team wants to win this year, but no way they're better than the Cards, Rockies, or Braves. I have no problem tinkering this season, but yeah, this should be Bailey's last MLB tryout with the Reds.

This team's starting, again--just as I said--is not very good at all. Other teams' young arms are light years ahead of ours: Hanson, Jimenez, Jurrjens. Heck, Brad Penny would be the Reds' ace.

Brad Penny right now is pitching like the ace of the Cardinals' staff.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Originally Posted by reds1869

I give him the entire season to see how things pan out, then I revisit the question in September. By then we will know what the club truly has with him.

Yea, I give him until the end of the season at least. I'd rather watch him then Harang on any night. Cueto hasn't been much better even at his best.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Bailey's stuff is still good. I went back and checked, he had 13 swings and misses last night. His biggest problem right now is location. How many times do you see him get ahead 1-2 and then lose the batter to a walk.

IIRC, Bailey was always a slow starter in the minors and never really got things going until May. Obviously starting slow isn't ideal for the team but hopefully he can get things going soon.

What's a good number of swings and misses for a pitcher to have?

[lollipopcurve]

Bailey's stuff is still good. I went back and checked, he had 13 swings and misses last night. His biggest problem right now is location. How many times do you see him get ahead 1-2 and then lose the batter to a walk.

IIRC, Bailey was always a slow starter in the minors and never really got things going until May. Obviously starting slow isn't ideal for the team but hopefully he can get things going soon.

On target.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

What's a good number of swings and misses for a pitcher to have?

13 is very good. Double digits is always pretty good.

For example, Tim Lincecum had 17 swings and misses in his 7 IP, 10 K outing against the Braves on Sunday.

In Adam Wainwright's 8 IP, 0 R outing against the Astros a few days ago, he had 7 swings and misses.

[Superdude]

I'm definitely not ready to change my opinion of Homer after two starts, but I was definitely expecting a big time breakout year. This team needs the young, high-upside guys to start producing in order to compete, so I'd say we can pretty much throw in the towel if Homer pitches like a borderline #5 all season long.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Superdude

I'm definitely not ready to change my opinion of Homer after two starts, but I was definitely expecting a big time breakout year. This team needs the young, high-upside guys to start producing in order to compete, so I'd say we can pretty much throw in the towel if Homer pitches like a borderline #5 all season long.

Agreed.

I would give Bailey until about the All-Star Break. If he hasn't shown significant improvement by then (something like an ERA under 5.00), I would look to move him for some kind of reconcilable value- maybe in a package with Alonso. This would coincide with Volquez coming back from his injury and/or Chapman+Wood being ready to make their debuts.

I made a similar post to this thread last year, but got temporarily blinded by his September performance. Hoping that was real, I expected a breakout season (which obviously is still quite possible.) If he doesn't start to put it together in the next couple months though, his time here will have expired. We're starting to move into Austin Kearns territory, where we've heard about such potential from this #1 pick for such a long time, we begin to forget that he actually has to start harnessing some of it at some point. Otherwise, he's nothing more than a mediocre player taking up space on the roster. There's still time, but the horizon doesn't go on forever.

[HokieRed]

The superabundance of statistics makes this game seem so simple. Bailey's just automatically supposed to start the way he finished last year: as one of the most effective pitchers in the league. If he doesn't, away with him! Amazing.

[Always Red]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

The superabundance of statistics makes this game seem so simple. Bailey's just automatically supposed to start the way he finished last year: as one of the most effective pitchers in the league. If he doesn't, away with him! Amazing.

Agreed; it's only been 10 innings!

[dougdirt]

The difference between Homer at the end of 2009 and Homer in 2010 so far is one thing... the ability to locate his fastball. When he can throw his fastball where the catcher puts his mitt, he can get guys out. When he can't, he can't.