Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?

[lollipopcurve]

Combine it with his MLB BB rate, and the picture gets a lot uglier. So yeah, if you want to cherry-pick Bailey's "history" you can make it look better.

Cherrypicking? You made the claim that Bailey should be defined by "years of terrible control." I cited his entire minor league history -- no evidence of terrible control.

Now you say we should ignore Bailey's last 10 starts (or thereabouts -- 58 innings) in 2009 in favor of the innings he pitched in the majors prior to that plus the 2 starts this year. I think if you examine the BB rate in the innings you deem acceptable for consideration -- just the acceptable major league innings now, we'll ignore the 519 minor league innings, to help your cause -- you'll find the BB rate comparable to Ubaldo Jimenez's 100+ BBs in less than 200 innings in his age 24 season, the age Bailey turns this year.

You need to realize your claims re: Bailey's control are decidedly hyperbolic. Does he need to refine his control? Yes. Does he have major issues with his control? No.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Agreed.

I would give Bailey until about the All-Star Break. If he hasn't shown significant improvement by then (something like an ERA under 5.00), I would look to move him for some kind of reconcilable value- maybe in a package with Alonso. This would coincide with Volquez coming back from his injury and/or Chapman+Wood being ready to make their debuts.

I made a similar post to this thread last year, but got temporarily blinded by his September performance. Hoping that was real, I expected a breakout season (which obviously is still quite possible.) If he doesn't start to put it together in the next couple months though, his time here will have expired. We're starting to move into Austin Kearns territory, where we've heard about such potential from this #1 pick for such a long time, we begin to forget that he actually has to start harnessing some of it at some point. Otherwise, he's nothing more than a mediocre player taking up space on the roster. There's still time, but the horizon doesn't go on forever.

I understand this line of thinking, but there's simply one thing that people tend to overlook so easily. His age. It seems like Bailey's been here forever and he's had chance after chance after chance. That's not Homer's fault. He shouldn't have been up here so early. Not by a longshot. If he had been in the minors all this time and just came up last year initially...I doubt we'd be having this discussion (of course he'd also still have all those options...durnit). Yes, the Reds screwed up his development timetable in regards to the bigs and his options, but his actual development as a pitcher is right on schedule IMO. We should be patient with him and let him pitch. He seems to be the kind of pitcher that gets stronger as the season moves along (and in games too it seems). A few seasons in the bigs and he should settle down into what his career will be. I always expect a pitchers first 2 seasons to be somewhat rocky. I'm counting LAST season as that first "real" season. But that's me.

[Will M]

I posted in the game thread that both Cueto & Bailey are starting to frustrate me as a fan. this is despite Homer's late 2009 success.

as a fan i really hope everyone gets it together & we have something like 9 quality starters

what i can reasonably hope for is that we have five quality guys. lets say for the sake of arguement that Chapman has 2-3 more great starts in AAA & Leake pitches better than Cueto/Bailey. then i send one of them to the bullpen. light a fire under his you know what. back in the bad ole days guys with potential like Homer & Johnny got a large amount of leeway before the team pulled the plug. EE was a good example of this. a rebuilding team could afford to give EE a lot of time to try & improve and reach his potential. a contending team would never have stuck with him as long as the Reds did.
i believe the Reds brass is trying to move from being an annual rebuilding team to an annual contending team. therefore guys like Homer & Johnny need to realize its time to git er done so to speak. if you don't perform we have other guys chomping at the bit to take your place in the rotation.

[Ghosts of 1990]

I think Bailey's main issue at the Major League level is that after he gives up a hit--he starts to mess around a little too much and nibble rather then coming back in and going right at the next hitter. That is what causes him problems in control. He can be rattled and early or strung out in his own mind on the mound a bit.

As for just overall struggles, I don't think we've done him any favors. I remember reading an article this offseason where Bailey cited back in 2007 when he went like 7 shutout innings of 2 hit ball against the Oakland A's. Two starts later he went on short rest, got hit hard and got sent down--a waste of an option--and a hit to his confidence. Bailey's reaction then was "what the heck"

As a fan, that was my reaction too. The organization struggles developing young players. There's got to be a reason for it. I think them being so shaky in the handling of Bailey has hurt him a little bit.

[lollipopcurve]

We haven't had good pitching prospects here in so long, it's like people don't want them if they can't provide instant and unremitting gratification.

Bailey's 23/24. He throws mid 90s. He overmatched lineups for several weeks at the end of last season (including excellent games vs. St Louis, Florida, Colorado and LA, all playoff or contending teams). He's been very durable -- no health history to be concerned about. He's cheap. Yet some posters are already throwing him under the bus? Once a hater, always a hater....

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

We haven't had good pitching prospects here in so long, it's like people don't want them if they can't provide instant and unremitting gratification.

Bailey's 23/24. He throws mid 90s. He overmatched lineups for several weeks at the end of last season (including excellent games vs. St Louis, Florida, Colorado and LA, all playoff or contending teams). He's been very durable -- no health history to be concerned about. He's cheap. Yet some posters are already throwing him under the bus? Once a hater, always a hater....

I'm not writing him off yet, but he's about to have his 40th start and 4th season in the big leagues. Yes, he's still young, but it's not like he hasn't had plenty of opportunities. We're beyond "instant unremitting gratification."

I think he's been around long enough, now, for people to expect he put it together. I most certainly will not give up on him. He looked like he was on the verge of a breakthrough last season. And he's only had two starts this year, so sample is a huge issue to this point in the year. But nonetheless, let's not pretend he just got to the big leagues.

[lollipopcurve]

I think he's been around long enough, now, for people to expect he put it together. I most certainly will not give up on him. He looked like he was on the verge of a breakthrough last season. And he's only had two starts this year, so sample is a huge issue to this point in the year. But nonetheless, let's not pretend he just got to the big leagues.

And let's not pretend he wasn't rushed.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

I'm not writing him off yet, but he's about to have his 40th start and 4th season in the big leagues. Yes, he's still young, but it's not like he hasn't had plenty of opportunities. We're beyond "instant unremitting gratification."

I think he's been around long enough, now, for people to expect he put it together. I most certainly will not give up on him. He looked like he was on the verge of a breakthrough last season. And he's only had two starts this year, so sample is a huge issue to this point in the year. But nonetheless, let's not pretend he just got to the big leagues.

This is the part that skews everyone's perspective. He should NOT have 4 seasons in the bigs at this point. We should stop looking at this from the aspect of what he's done in the bigs so far, to where he is CURRENTLY in his development. He's showing poise when he doesn't have his best stuff. He's matured and much more humble than he was earlier. He's much more coachable. He's added a new pitch and had success with it. And for a 23 year old, he's locked down a slot in an above average starting rotation. TWENTY-THREE. Forget the 4 years in the bigs. That was beyond foolishness.

[HokieRed]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

We haven't had good pitching prospects here in so long, it's like people don't want them if they can't provide instant and unremitting gratification.

Bailey's 23/24. He throws mid 90s. He overmatched lineups for several weeks at the end of last season (including excellent games vs. St Louis, Florida, Colorado and LA, all playoff or contending teams). He's been very durable -- no health history to be concerned about. He's cheap. Yet some posters are already throwing him under the bus? Once a hater, always a hater....

Agree 100%.

[paulrichjr]

Originally Posted by Always Red

Agreed; it's only been 10 innings!

I remember a few years ago in the minors he started off horribly slow and suddenly turned it on after a month or so. I'm not worried at all. I am a little concerned about Leake though with those first 3 batters he faced in that last game. That was just horrible.

[KoryMac5]

I think we need to give the kid another season or two. This is the first year he gets to work with Price who has a pretty good reputation as a pitching coach. I would imagine the Reds would have a good idea about Homer after the season based off what Price has to say about him.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

And let's not pretend he wasn't rushed.

Rushed or not, he's pitched more than 600 professional innings. It's time to judge him on what he is or will be and not what he may have been.

[lollipopcurve]

It's time to judge him on what he is or will be and not what he may have been.

That's what I would say, too. Don't expect him to be a #1 starter just because he was a high draft pick.

How can you judge someone based on "what they will be" if you don't know what that is yet?

What he is, is 23/24 with plus stuff and no injury history, and a recent track record of success in the bigs.

600 professional innings is no threshold at which one should be drawing definitive conclusions about the future of a pitcher.

[HeatherC1212]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

This is the part that skews everyone's perspective. He should NOT have 4 seasons in the bigs at this point. We should stop looking at this from the aspect of what he's done in the bigs so far, to where he is CURRENTLY in his development. He's showing poise when he doesn't have his best stuff. He's matured and much more humble than he was earlier. He's much more coachable. He's added a new pitch and had success with it. And for a 23 year old, he's locked down a slot in an above average starting rotation. TWENTY-THREE. Forget the 4 years in the bigs. That was beyond foolishness.

Quoted for truth and for how I feel right now too.

[Falls City Beer]

As every single poster who is critical of Bailey is saying, give him this season. No argument. As has been pointed out, no one's beating down in the door in the minors. Such is the Reds' organization's plight.