Zach Stewart's progress

[TheBigLebowski]

Maybe I work in a different environment than some people who participate here, but in my profession, judgment on work quality is results-based. While it is true that Toronto was not going to compete the year the deal was consummated nor the year after, the fact is, we fleeced them in this deal. In return for Rolen and 4 MILLION DOLLARS, we gave up a guy who is nothing more than organizational fodder in Roenicke (and I will admit, at the time, I hated losing the dude because I saw something in him I really liked), an awful person and terrible baseball player in Edwin and a top prospect in Stewart. However, in my very humble opinion, the only thing tougher in all of sports for scouts to project than a pitching prospect's development and long-term potential is doing the same for a high school offensive lineman to college or a collegiate offensive lineman to the pros.

I don't see how we aren't getting everything we could have wanted out of Rolen. Yes, he has been injury prone - it's not like one could make the argument that he magically got healthy when he arrived here. But his defense has been stellar, he has hit very well, and there is just no question that his "intangibles" factor is real and not imagined. With no Rolen, we do not win the division last year. "But how can you possibly know that???" Can I tell you with any degree of certainty that a perfectly-cooked pork loin won't fall on my head next time I step outside? No, but let's just say I won't be carrying two slices of Texas Toast and a bottle of barbecue sauce next time I let my dogs out back.

The move was a wonderful move - when considered against circumstances as they were at the time and as they are now. Truly a great move by a great GM.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I understand simply saying, I think the Reds gave up too much to get Rolen, but it was a good deal for the Reds in the end. Fine. Some had a higher value on Stewart...I get that. But I asked Doug a few months back if he would undo the trade if he could, and he said yes. I doubt you stand with him on that front. And to be honest, I struggle with Doug on that one, for he is one of the more knowedglable ones on here...but I just hope one day he sees the light and realizes this deal was a plus for the Reds.

And I would have not been happy at the time of the deal myself had it been Yonder instead of Stewart.

I'd have dealt Yonder and Stewart to the Indians with other spare parts for Cliff Lee and kept him for the 2010 season. In the winter between the 2009 and 2010 seasons I'd have dealt a bag of balls and EdE for Rolen from the Jays because they would have faced dealing him or losing him to retirement.

Put Lee on the 2010 Reds and they may just have been known for something in the post season besides being no hit.

[757690]

Originally Posted by mth123

I'm not sure that is the way to look at it. Rolen has been a windfall that has provided tons of value and even those who were against the deal knew that he was a big upgrade from EdE, but that doesn't mean the Reds couldn't have gotten him for less.

If you buy a house for 200K and its value rockets to $500K you're surely happy with the deal. But if you could have bought the same house for $75K, then you still overpaid.

I'm with Doug, Rolen wanted out of Toronto and there was really nowhere else for him to go. His OPS of .840+ last year was probably about 60 points higher than what should have been expected and he was and is a damaged player whose skills have been compromised by injury and isn't the guy that the back of his baseball card says anymore. Under those conditions, giving up Stewart seemed too much to me. Even if the Reds had made the decision that Stewart was a mirage, his value was skyrocketing and he could have been dealt for something else. At the time, he probably had more value than any prospect the Phillies gave for Cliff Lee.

IMO, even the Chicago market was too far from Rolen's home for him to accept a deal there. Since he'd burned his bridge in St, Louis, I think it was Cincy or retirement to be near his family for Rolen. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say Rolen asked Walt "get me out of here now" and Walt simply tired of negotiating and made a deal that he knew would be accepted quickly. Rumor at the time was that the Jays wanted Alonso. Had it been Alonso instead of Stewart, I'd have thought it was a fair deal. I just hate giving up highly regarded pitching without getting pitching in return. Intead the Reds got some cash to pay the salary difference and that is what made this an overpayment in my mind. I'm not opposed to selling off assets to help with the budget, but dealing what was, at the time, the best pitching prospect simply to balance the dollars in the deal didn't seem a good idea. I'd have waited until the off-season and added Rolen before the 2010 season when that money to balance the 2009 budget was no longer a factor. Adding him for the end of 2009 was meaningless in the overall plan and I really don't think he'd have willingly played anywhere else.

The fact that Rolen wanted to play closer to home is rather meaningless in determining his trade value at that time. He had no right to demand a trade, let alone demand where he wanted to go.

The Jays could have traded him to any team they wanted to and there was nothing that Rolen could have done, nor would the Jays suffer any blowback from it.

Plus there was nothing stopping the Jays from just keeping him at that point and trading him in the offseason.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by 757690

The fact that Rolen wanted to play closer to home is rather meaningless in determining his trade value at that time. He had no right to demand a trade, let alone demand where he wanted to go.

The Jays could have traded him to any team they wanted to and there was nothing that Rolen could have done, nor would the Jays suffer any blowback from it.

Plus there was nothing stopping the Jays from just keeping him at that point and trading him in the offseason.

Sure he did. All he had to do was say trade me close to home or I'm done playing baseball. He's set for life and can walk away from his contract at any time. So the Jays choice was get something or get nothing.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by mth123

Sure he did. All he had to do was say trade me close to home or I'm done playing baseball. He's set for life and can walk away from his contract at any time. So the Jays choice was get something or get nothing.

You could say the same for most veterans in the game though. I just don't think it works that way.

[757690]

Originally Posted by mth123

Sure he did. All he had to do was say trade me close to home or I'm done playing baseball. He's set for life and can walk away from his contract at any time. So the Jays choice was get something or get nothing.

Well if he said that, I would have called his bluff, because I can't imagine Scott Rolen walking away from baseball just because he has to drive far.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

You could say the same for most veterans in the game though. I just don't think it works that way.

They all could do it. Rolen probably would have done it. How can they stop him from retiring? The only recourse they have is to stop paying his salary. I think Rolen wanted to be close to home more than he wanted the money. The discount he gave the Reds on the extension is pretty good evidence of that.

IMO Rolen's first choice was to play close to home. His second choice was to simply quit playing so he could be close to home. I don't think playing or any other job anywhere far from home was or is an option anymore.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by 757690

Well if he said that, I would have called his bluff, because I can't imagine Scott Rolen walking away from baseball just because he has to drive far.

I can't imagine him continuing to play anywhere far away. I guess we'll just disagree.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by mth123

They all could do it. Rolen probably would have done it.

Oh, good God, mth. That makes absolutely no sense. Unless you know Rolen personally or are privy to some heretofore unmentioned information, assuming the man would quit rather than continue playing for Toronto is ridiculous.

He asked for a trade. Toronto management (and Jocketty) made that trade happen. There was no demand, no hold-out, no shenanigans.

That's not Rolen's style.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Oh, good God, mth. That makes absolutely no sense. Unless you know Rolen personally or are privy to some heretofore unmentioned information, assuming the man would quit rather than continue playing for Toronto is ridiculous.

He asked for a trade. Toronto management (and Jocketty) made that trade happen. There was no demand, no hold-out, no shenanigans.

That's not Rolen's style.

His exits from Philly and St. Louis might indicate his style is to get out when he wants out.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

That is a pretty good question. Odds are he would probably be in AAA. But, lets note that at the time of the trade, he was the top pitching prospect we had, Mike Leake wasn't yet signed and Travis Wood was the only other prospect showing anything close to signs of life above Low A. The Reds pitching depth kind of exploded on them after that trade, but at the time of it, it wasn't really close to being what it is right now.

Maybe it exploded on us, and the Reds knew what kind of depth they had at the time of the deal? You have to include Bailey and Cueto in that depth analysis.

And wow, Zach Stewart is floundering in AA, looking like a below average AAer at 24. All the hand-wringing...

[Revering4Blue]

Originally Posted by mth123

I'd have dealt Yonder and Stewart to the Indians with other spare parts for Cliff Lee and kept him for the 2010 season. In the winter between the 2009 and 2010 seasons I'd have dealt a bag of balls and EdE for Rolen from the Jays because they would have faced dealing him or losing him to retirement.

Put Lee on the 2010 Reds and they may just have been known for something in the post season besides being no hit.

Exactly.

Even though he had the Jays over a proverbial barrel, WJ clearly overpaid and blew a major trading chip just to bring Rolen over at the 2009 deadline. Why? So the Reds could finish 4th instead of fifth?

Given that, you bet I'd undo that trade in a heartbeat.

[kaldaniels]

I like how it is written as a fact that Rolen was gonna retire if he didn't get traded.

[Doc. Scott]

Couldn't help but notice this bit from a BA Prospect Hot Sheet chat earlier this week:

Clint (BC, Canada): I thought Zack Stewart had a strong finish last year, but this year he seems pretty mediocre for a 24 year old repeating AA. His K rate is down from last year and I heard at the start of the year his velocity was sitting around 88-92mph. Is my hope of seeing him in the Jays starting rotation this year unrealistic?

Ben Badler: I think his future is in middle relief.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...1/2611741.html

[camisadelgolf]

I refuse to acknowledge the possibility that members of RedsZone my have overestimated the ceiling of a prospect.