Drew Stubbs: Why Doesn't He Make Enough Contact?

[forfreelin04]

To expound on what I was talking about in the game thread, I think the mechanics of Drew's swing is causing him to miss wayyyy to many pitches.

Keep in mind, Stubss was a K machine before he ever played in the Reds system. At UT, Stubbs led the team in strikeouts for three years. "04, 05, and 06" And when I say led, I don't mean by a couple strikeouts. I'm talking nearly double the guy behind him.

http://www.texassports.com/sports/m-...ebl-stats.html

Okay, we know that he didn't improve much with the K's in the Reds Minor League System.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=stubbs001and

Obviously, we know nothing has changed since he's been with the major league team. So how to fix this? Many will say, he is what he is. He's a guy with Rickey Henderson speed with the plate approach of Mark Reynolds. However, Drew doesn't hit homeruns like Reynolds. He's striking out every 3.2 at bats compared to the MLB average of nearly 5.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...dr01-bat.shtml

Now, someone brought up the fact that if Drew only learned how to make contact, the chances of him getting on base were that much better because of his speed to 1st base. Brantley mentioned today that there is a certain sway in Drew's swing. I did some research and looked at some video on MLB.com. I already knew what Brantley meant, (seen it live in Dayton) but I wanted to be sure I just wasn't imagining it. It is there.

I tried to find a GIF of his swing to post but couldn't. If anyone knows of a good site, please PM and let me know. It's so much easier to describe mechanics when its in slow motion.

Anyways, Drew's "sway" is him overextending himself on his step towards the pitcher. When he steps, his body comes with the weight transfer. This causes his hands to drag behind him, causing a bit of a dip on the level of his hands. By throwing the hands back at various levels, (depending on weight transfer) Drew is constantly swinging from a different hand level. His slight uppercut in his swing only makes this worse. This causes the swing to be extremely long in the zone causing A TON of swings and misses.

I searched the web to back up this information and found this message board.

http://hsbaseballweb.com/eve/forums/...962#9611025962

They talk about frames in a swing. I guess Drew's swing is 5.5 frames long, which is crazy long for a blue chip prospect. From what I understand, the frames actually correspond to the video frames during Drew's swing on Quicktime.

Now my prescription would be too to start Drew's Swing sooner with a kickback like Gary Sheffield or a no step like Chase Utley. Each would dramatically reduce the moving parts in Stubbs swing. I've always been a huge fan of the no step since it is pure weight transfer and leaves almost nothing to chance.

Okay..... now back to work.

[Mario-Rijo]

Interesting I was thinking bat speed all along but this would give the appearance of a lack of bat speed if true. Sounds a little like Jay as well when is going bad his body is "out in front", if that is what your partially suggesting with Drew.

[RedsManRick]

We heard a few years back how the Reds were really working with Stubbs to cut down on his swing. I was under the impression that this was his cut-down swing. Perhaps not?

It seems like he's got decent "speed" from a velocity standpoint, as the distance on his HR the other day suggests, but that it's just a very long swing giving him too little time to adjust on breaking balls (because he has to start so early) and not enough quickness to catch up to high heat.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Interesting I was thinking bat speed all along but this would give the appearance of a lack of bat speed if true. Sounds a little like Jay as well when is going bad his body is "out in front", if that is what your partially suggesting with Drew.

And as I meandered thru that message board above I read this part, don't know how much truth to it but it makes some sense to me.

Posted February 02, 2008 08:22 PM
Lastly, Swingbuilder, your comments about Stubbs are very telling. Yes, the Reds think they can make him a player, but they made a multi-million dollar bet on it that has yet to pan out. His hitting stats so far are dreadful as you know so DMac's admonitions were spot on, and this was before the draft. Maybe others were unimpressed, but his foresight made a huge impression on me and from then on I've been very sensitive to frame counts.

As you are also aware, the line of Stubbs (from Baseball America) was that he was an athletic freak, but there was a concern from "a few scouts" that he had a slow bat. OK, many scouts don't use DMac's techniques but I have been told that other organizations do count frames identically to DMac. It's an easy decision for me. I want the frame count of my players under 5 (I am very proud my 14 year old son is now at 4.5), and a swing speed above 75 mph. I'll take my chances with that. A quick, powerful swing isn't a bad thing to have, even if it doesn't meet the Tom Guerry seal of approval.

-JJA

[forfreelin04]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

And as I meandered thru that message board above I read this part, don't know how much truth to it but it makes some sense to me.

Yeah, Stubbs frame rate was 5.5 out of college. I wonder if its improved?

Judging by the strikeouts, not much.

Like I said, I think you can change the mechanics of his swing and make it quicker. He's a tall guy with a straight up batting stance. Certainly is not the atypical leadoff guy out of the Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan type mold.


Eric Davis certainly wasn't someone that screams fundamentals at the plate but Davis kept his weight back for an insane amount of time. He too generated his swing from his wrists and it could often be long at times. Funny how Davis and Stubbs are comparable in skill sets.

Perhaps, if Stubbs exagerrated the weight transfer like Davis, he too could generate more contact, power, and bat speed.

I wonder if Davis had anything to say to Stubbs during ST.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

We heard a few years back how the Reds were really working with Stubbs to cut down on his swing. I was under the impression that this was his cut-down swing. Perhaps not?

It seems like he's got decent "speed" from a velocity standpoint, as the distance on his HR the other day suggests, but that it's just a very long swing giving him too little time to adjust on breaking balls (because he has to start so early) and not enough quickness to catch up to high heat.

Agreed. I don't think it's a matter of speed but the long, sweeping motion that is causing him longer to get around. Sometimes it seems as if he's extending his arms too early prior to making contact. Ideally, you would want to explode into full extension on the swing at the point in which the ball meets the bat to maximize contact and power. I'm not sure he's always doing that.

[Falls City Beer]

I have a theory: AAA pitching sucks and MLB pitching is hella tough.

[dougdirt]

Long swing, takes too many pitches that he should swing at and has trouble recognizing off speed pitches.

[MississippiRed]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Long swing, takes too many pitches that he should swing at and has trouble recognizing off speed pitches.

and that's a triple whammy!

[VR]

Home run swing in a built-for-singles body.


Even with two strikes, he's swinging to hit it out of the stadium.

[fearofpopvol1]

Maybe he should go back to his Dayton days and "choke up" on the bat a bit more? At least when he's down 0-2?

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

Maybe he should go back to his Dayton days and "choke up" on the bat a bit more? At least when he's down 0-2?

He already does that, I believe all the time.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Long swing, takes too many pitches that he should swing at and has trouble recognizing off speed pitches.

So why were you so high on him?

[dabvu2498]

Originally Posted by VR

Home run swing in a built-for-singles body.


Even with two strikes, he's swinging to hit it out of the stadium.

He's listed at 6'4", 205 lbs.

Not exactly David Eckstein.

[forfreelin04]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I have a theory: AAA pitching sucks and MLB pitching is hella tough.

While I agree, Stubbs minors and college numbers suggest he doesn't make basic contact enough. Which was always the rub with Stubbs, but the Reds chose to ignore that. They also chose to ignore it through the minors. Now its on the big stage and WOW it can't be ignored now.

What's sad is the fact, many organizations probably overvalued his "freakish" abilities. (Cue the "white buffalo") He has power (the potential), speed, and plays a rangy center. Now that the Reds have let the cat out of the bag, so to speak, they can't package him as sweetner in a trade to get a vet pitcher or left fielder.

Given the right location, you and I might strike him out. And I'm actually quite serious. His lack of contact is eye popping.