Thoughts on David Sappelt

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

This lowballing of Sappelt is hard to understand. I like Drew Stubbs but David Sappelt's having a better season this year than anything Drew Stubbs ever did in the minor leagues. Why's he Norris Hopper? (And additionally, he's so far ahead of Chris Dickerson at 23 that the comparison is laughable.)

The lowballing of Sappelt is because his ceiling isn't real high and despite AA production there is no gaurantees he will reach that mediocre to slightly above ceiling. I don't comprehend why people want to directly equate production at minor league levels with potential production at the major league level, it doesn't necessarily translate, it's a different game.

[RED VAN HOT]

Last year, it was reported that Sappelt had a weak arm, but that an injury was suspected. Can anyone provide an update?

[flash]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

The lowballing of Sappelt is because his ceiling isn't real high and despite AA production there is no gaurantees he will reach that mediocre to slightly above ceiling. I don't comprehend why people want to directly equate production at minor league levels with potential production at the major league level, it doesn't necessarily translate, it's a different game.

I don't believe success in the minors is an indicator of success in the major leagues. Definitely not for pitchers. However I do feel that it is a prequesite. If you can't hit minor league pitching how will you ever hir major league pitching. I use .300 as a measuring point.

[RedsFanInBama]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

The lowballing of Sappelt is because his ceiling isn't real high and despite AA production there is no gaurantees he will reach that mediocre to slightly above ceiling. I don't comprehend why people want to directly equate production at minor league levels with potential production at the major league level, it doesn't necessarily translate, it's a different game.

Who determines one's ceiling? Is there a committee that gets together and puts a stamp on players when they are drafted or signed?

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by RedsFanInBama

Who determines one's ceiling? Is there a committee that gets together and puts a stamp on players when they are drafted or signed?

Yeah they are called talent and skill.

[RedsFanInBama]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Yeah they are called talent and skill.

What was Ryan Hanigan's ceiling when he went undrafted? Must have been about High-A.

No doubt a "ceiling" is a very real thing, but us pretending to know it for a given player is not realistic. There are too many factors that go into baseball that can't be measured on a tools' sheet.

[HokieRed]

Originally Posted by RedsFanInBama

Who determines one's ceiling? Is there a committee that gets together and puts a stamp on players when they are drafted or signed?

I share your reservations about judgments from on high about players' "ceilings."

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by RedsFanInBama

What was Ryan Hanigan's ceiling when he went undrafted? Must have been about High-A.

No doubt a "ceiling" is a very real thing, but us pretending to know it for a given player is not realistic. There are too many factors that go into baseball that can't be measured on a tools' sheet.

Ryan Hanigan clearly doesn't have power, and he has no speed. That's already two strikes right there. At best, he was a three-tool prospect. When you combine that with him being a backup on his college team, it's understandable that he was never seen as having a high ceiling. With that said, what Ryan Hanigan is currently doing for the Reds was always considered to be his ceiling. The Reds gave him a chance, and Hanigan has managed to be one of the very few to actually reach his ceiling.

On the flip side of that, players with higher ceilings don't need to fulfill all of their potential to help a team; Drew Stubbs is an excellent example of that. He's so naturally gifted that his inability to make contact doesn't stop him from being a very valuable player. However, if he ever reaches his ceiling, look out--he'll be a major superstar.

[sabometrics]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Ryan Hanigan clearly doesn't have power, and he has no speed. That's already two strikes right there. At best, he was a three-tool prospect. When you combine that with him being a backup on his college team, it's understandable that he was never seen as having a high ceiling. With that said, what Ryan Hanigan is currently doing for the Reds was always considered to be his ceiling. The Reds gave him a chance, and Hanigan has managed to be one of the very few to actually reach his ceiling.

On the flip side of that, players with higher ceilings don't need to fulfill all of their potential to help a team; Drew Stubbs is an excellent example of that. He's so naturally gifted that his inability to make contact doesn't stop him from being a very valuable player. However, if he ever reaches his ceiling, look out--he'll be a major superstar.

At age 23 in High-A Potomac, 2 years after being a NDFA, I don't think anyone thought Ryan Hanigan would sniff the major leagues. I'd think it would be pretty safe to say that he has far exceeded what his perceived "ceiling" was at 23, and there's no reason Sappelt can't do that too.

[dougdirt]

Ceilings can of course change. Guys can make changes in their swings that can change their skillsets. They can improve their diet/nutrition/work ethic to improve their body type, position and even speed.

Here is the main thing with Sappelt, as he has always been a fast guy with excellent range in CF who makes a lot of contact.... is the power improvement this year for real, or a by product of the stadiums he has been playing in? At home, his power is in line with where it has been for his career. On the road, its real good (.216 IsoP). If the power increase is legit, then he is showing an improved tool, one that no one really thought was as good as it is. That really is the only thing that has changed in his game. He isn't striking out less and while his walks are up a little bit, its not even a full percent better than it was in Dayton last season.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by sabometrics

At age 23 in High-A Potomac, 2 years after being a NDFA, I don't think anyone thought Ryan Hanigan would sniff the major leagues. I'd think it would be pretty safe to say that he has far exceeded what his perceived "ceiling" was at 23, and there's no reason Sappelt can't do that too.

To be fair--and I know this because I was one of them--some of us (not necessarily on RedsZone but other sites) said he could be a Major League backup someday at that time. It wasn't until after his 2006 season that people were really starting to write him off. 2007 completely changed everyone's view on him, though.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Ceilings can of course change. Guys can make changes in their swings that can change their skillsets. They can improve their diet/nutrition/work ethic to improve their body type, position and even speed.

Here is the main thing with Sappelt, as he has always been a fast guy with excellent range in CF who makes a lot of contact.... is the power improvement this year for real, or a by product of the stadiums he has been playing in? At home, his power is in line with where it has been for his career. On the road, its real good (.216 IsoP). If the power increase is legit, then he is showing an improved tool, one that no one really thought was as good as it is. That really is the only thing that has changed in his game. He isn't striking out less and while his walks are up a little bit, its not even a full percent better than it was in Dayton last season.

Sappelt's power is slightly deceptive. He is very aggressive when it comes to taking the extra base, so if he succeeds in stretching a double into a triple, it improves his SLG; if he fails, there's no decrease. Wondering if Sappelt's power will stay with him in MLB is like wondering if Daniel Ray Herrera's strikeout rate would stay high. In other words, Sappelt has surprising power, but it won't be much a part of his game in the big leagues.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Sappelt's power is slightly deceptive. He is very aggressive when it comes to taking the extra base, so if he succeeds in stretching a double into a triple, it improves his SLG; if he fails, there's no decrease. Wondering if Sappelt's power will stay with him in MLB is like wondering if Daniel Ray Herrera's strikeout rate would stay high. In other words, Sappelt has surprising power, but it won't be much a part of his game in the big leagues.

Well I know he isn't going to be a 25 HR guy.... but if he can be a 12-15 HR guy, that is starter material. If he is a 5-10 HR guy, then he is a 4th outfielder in all likelihood.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Well I know he isn't going to be a 25 HR guy.... but if he can be a 12-15 HR guy, that is starter material. If he is a 5-10 HR guy, then he is a 4th outfielder in all likelihood.

All else staying the same, whether he hits 5 homeruns (.768 OPS) or 15 homeruns (.819 OPS), he'd still be a starting center fielder on a lot of teams. But for the sake of argument, we're basically talking about the difference between a fourth outfielder and a 'third' outfielder with the third outfielder being a center fielder.

As you're aware, center fielders don't require the same offensive output as corner outfielders. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe corner outfielders are generally expected to have an OPS around .810 while center fielders are expected to have an OPS around .760. Will Sappelt ever have the power needed to justify putting him in a corner outfield position everyday? Heck no. But I see him as an 8-12 HR guy with an OPS around .780-.790 in his prime, which is pretty impressive--especially someone with a 5'8" frame.

[RedsFanInBama]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

What Ryan Hanigan is currently doing for the Reds was always considered to be his ceiling.

I don't believe that for a second. Maybe Ryan's mom and dad thought he could do it, but I have a really hard time believing that people ALWAYS believed he could be this type of contributor at the major league level.