Reds promote Yonder Alonso to Louisville

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Lockdwn11

I don't think it would take 18+ million if the Reds would lock him up now.

Lock him up for arbitration, no. Lock him up post arbitration? I can't really say, but I do know that guys who OPS .975 consistently get paid that much.

[medford]

Sign me up for the camp that hopes Votto is signed long term. W/ Arroyo & Harang due to come off payroll at the end of this year (assuming they decline the options on them) and Phillips & Coco on the last year of thier deals next season, the Reds should have some room in the buget to sign Votto long term. Aside from Bruce, there are no other bats in the organization due long term contract any time soon. Perhaps signing Votto long term means you can't extend Phillips long term (assuming he'd want to), but if you've got to pick and choose going forward, I'm stickign w/ Votto and hoping Frazier or Valiaka can fill the void at 2nd. On the pitching side, Volquez, Cueto & Bailey will force their hand on whom to sign long term and who to move or let go at some point, but the hopefully effectiveness of Chapman, leake, Wood and others should allow them to pick 1 or 2 of the "older" three and remain w/ a lower payroll going forward.

[medford]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Lock him up for arbitration, no. Lock him up post arbitration? I can't really say, but I do know that guys who OPS .975 consistently get paid that much.

I would think the plan would be to "overpay" him for some of those arbitratin years, so that you can "underpay" him for his post arbitration years and trade a little contract secruity for the unknown that he could fall off the table the next couple of seasons and be worth less than a millon on the open market (not likely but its just the extreme example)

A lot of it depends on how Joey feels about it. Either way, they guy is going to get paid. Would he be happy signing a 6 year, $80 mil deal w/ the Reds today, or is he the type that is intent to getting to free agency as quickly as possible unless the Reds throw $20 mil+ a season at him? Considerring his issues last year, and the support system in Centerville, does he give the Reds more lee-way for playing in a familar, comfortable environment in an organization that appears to have a very solid young nucleaus? Or perhaps he'd like nothign more than to sign w/ toronto in the future, or perhaps he doesn't care where he lives, he wants that big contract. Only Joey can answer that right now, but the Reds would be foolish to not at least be having discussion with his agent, attempting to at least gleam what his desires are. If they match up, great. If not, hopefully Yonder gives them another option for a left handed masher at 1st.

[TC81190]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

Possible scenario the FO will have to confront: Is it worth paying Votto 20 million a year over 6 years for the difference between him and Alonso? That's not going to be an easy question, and I don't think the figure for Votto is inflated at all.

Honestly, I think it is. I know Votto is good, and in my opinion, probably better than Ryan Howard. But Ryan Howard got his 20+ millions a year all because he got that round number of 50 home runs, and brought a ring to a huge city, high profile team such as the Phils.

Pujols will get his because he's historically good and has been so for a better part of this decade.

Joey is good, but he doesn't have the eye popping, glamour stats that Howard has, nor has he been an all time great for almost 10 years. He'll hit over .300, get on base somewhere near .400, and hit his 30 home runs. I think on the open market, which is looking to flooded by 1B such as Adrian Gonzalez or Carlos Pena going to big market teams within the next couple years that would otherwise be paying the big dollars, Votto will get somehere around 13-15 million. We paid that much to Dunn for a good handful of years, and will be paying Brandon Phillips around that much next year.

I think the team can and should hand out that kind of contract to a Joey Votto type player.

[TC81190]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

Possible scenario the FO will have to confront: Is it worth paying Votto 20 million a year over 6 years for the difference between him and Alonso? That's not going to be an easy question, and I don't think the figure for Votto is inflated at all.

As far as the difference in the players, honestly, I think it would be worth it to pay Votto. We know how good Votto is now. The odds are Alonso having a good major league career are extremely high as with all prospects, let alone becoming a Votto type player. But the point is, even if he does, we need them both to reach the main goal, that is, winning a title.

[GIDP]

If Joey Votto OPS .950+ for the next 4 years just watch and see all the press he gets.

[Griffey012]

This Louisville lineup is going to be absolutely stacked with good prospects. Should be very fun to watch for Reds fans who get a chance.

[lollipopcurve]

I'm rooting for Alonso as a LF. The reports about his defense have been better than expected, and I love his OBP.

But I'm rooting even more for Votto to get a long-term deal. If he's not a core player, I don't know what one is.

[HokieRed]

I certainly consider Votto a core player for as long as he's here, but I think the estimates given here are way too low, unless the whole market collapses due to the economy and general bad attendance. Seems to me a lot of the speculation here is based on undervaluing Votto. For instance, who would pay up for Carlos Pena rather than Votto? My assumption is that Votto is playing himself into a group that includes Howard, Fielder, and Gonzalez, a group just one move down from Pujols. What did Howard get? Would you really rather have Howard than Votto?

[jmcclain19]

Well lets confine the "Should the Reds sign Votto" talk elsewhere boys & girls.

Alonso's path to the majors has been staked out and laid forth for him, with no hurdles blocking the path.

The question is - does he treat AAA pitching like a bull in a china shop and force the Reds hand? Or does he answer with a whimper?

Time will tell, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

[GIDP]

I have no links or anything proving that I actually read these things but I saw somewhere that Yonder isnt awful in left. Seems to take good routes and has an accurate arm. I dont know much more than that.

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

As for Alonso.... he hit two balls to the wall last week. Two balls that go five more feet and the guy has an .890 OPS. He isn't exactly struggling.

I hate these kinds of statements. We don't discount the wall-scrapers or the seeing-eye grounders with "a few inches the other way ... " Everyone has warning track outs. If we're going to start to give credit for those, we have to give the same credit to everyone. Then the "average" OPS creeps up and that imaginary .890 doesn't mean as much anyway.

He is what he is at this point. If you want to make the argument it's a small sample, that's fine. Recovering from injury? Fine. But this "two balls go five more feet and he has an .890 OPS" stuff is ridiculous.

[GIDP]

I think the statement is to mean that 2 balls can change how people view him. It actually is a lot similar to our Jay Bruce arguments over the last year. We see things and it makes our judgment of the guy not as bad. Similar to when we see a guy batting .360 we tend to discount it a little bit.

Its a way of judging the situation better. Doesnt mean he should be viewed at a .890 guy but it does put it in a little perspective.

[Griffey012]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

I hate these kinds of statements. We don't discount the wall-scrapers or the seeing-eye grounders with "a few inches the other way ... " Everyone has warning track outs. If we're going to start to give credit for those, we have to give the same credit to everyone. Then the "average" OPS creeps up and that imaginary .890 doesn't mean as much anyway.

He is what he is at this point. If you want to make the argument it's a small sample, that's fine. Recovering from injury? Fine. But this "two balls go five more feet and he has an .890 OPS" stuff is ridiculous.

Late in the season, it doesn't matter, but this early in the season it is just a way to show the effect of a small sample size. Now if at the end of the season Alonso doesn't have a higher OPS, there are no excuses about warning track outs and what not.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

I hate these kinds of statements. We don't discount the wall-scrapers or the seeing-eye grounders with "a few inches the other way ... " Everyone has warning track outs. If we're going to start to give credit for those, we have to give the same credit to everyone. Then the "average" OPS creeps up and that imaginary .890 doesn't mean as much anyway.

He is what he is at this point. If you want to make the argument it's a small sample, that's fine. Recovering from injury? Fine. But this "two balls go five more feet and he has an .890 OPS" stuff is ridiculous.

Its also a fact that his power isn't 100% right now and the wrist injury is still affecting his numbers and that a fully healthy Yonder Alonso is going to provide better overall numbers because of it. Holding him back because his OPS isn't as good as you would like isn't always looking at the situation correctly. Alonso is doing all that he should be asked to do, and when he is back at 100%, its going to show.