Reds Top Prospects- May Edition

[Benihana]

Partially because I've been so negative on prospects recently, and partially due to the fact that it is just about time, I thought this off day would be as good as any to post the May edition of Benihana's Top Prospect Report. And because Heisey has been promoted to the Reds, Francisco is back in AAA (and injured), and Alonso has now been promoted, I will revert to the old style of making everyone in a full season league under the age of 26 available for ranking. Of course the big story this month is the resurgence of Devin Mesoraco. As always, feel free to provide feedback.

GRADE A

1. Aroldis Chapman LHP AAA- Would like to see him continue to refine his stuff in Louisville until the ASB at least.

GRADE B

2a. Todd Frazier 3B/LF AAA- would like to see him continue to get 3B/LF reps and not play 1B.
2b. Juan Francisco 3B/LF AAA- 4 weeks on the DL won't help, but he was just starting to regain his stroke.
2c. Travis Wood LHP AAA- coming back to Earth after a career season. Still best bet for an arm in the system after Chapman.
5. Yonder Alonso 1B/LF AAA- would like to see him continue to get reps in LF. Hopefully he hits better in Louisville than he did in Carolina.
6. Devin Mesoraco C A+- may be atop this grade if he continues to hit like this in AA.

GRADE C

7. Brad Boxberger RHP A+- best pitcher in the lower minors.
8. Zach Cozart SS AAA- Unlike Valaika, I think his glove could earn him a starting job in the majors.
9. Neftali Soto C/3B A+- Still my pick for helium watch. Could be the next Geovany Soto/Russell Martin.
10. Donnie Joseph LHP A- Best prospect in Dayton. Could finish the year in Carolina, and be in Cincy by early 2011.
11. Chris Valaika 2B AAA- Nice start to the year after a mediocre campaign last season. Still not much higher because he doesn't project to more than a utility player at the next level.


OTHERS TO WATCH


12. Daryl Thompson RHP AA
13. Matt Klinker RHP AA
14. Henry Rodriguez 2B A
15. D.D. Gregorious SS A
16. Juan Carlos Sulbaran RHP A
17. Matt Fairel LHP A+
18. Josh Fellhauer OF A+
19. Miguel Rojas SS A+
20. Phil Valiquette LHP A+

KEEP AN EYE ON (too early to tell)

Yorman Rodriguez CF
Juan Duran OF
Juan Silva OF
Billy Hamilton SS/2B/CF
Junior Arias SS/2B/CF
Humberto Valor SS

PROMOTIONS ON THE HORIZON

LHP Matt Maloney to REDS
RHP Matt Klinker to AAA
RHP Daryl Thompson to AAA
RHP Brad Boxberger to AA
LHP Matt Fairel to AA
C Devin Mesoraco to AA
C Kevin Coddington to A+
LHP Donnie Joseph to A+

[mth123]

Love these kind of threads, but with the horrible starts by all the top guys its hard to like anyone other than Chapman and Mesoraco right now. Cozart, Soto and Valaika have done pretty well and of course the Rodney Dangerfield of the Red's system is Danny Dorn. Others I like include Matt Fairel, Mace Thruman and Donny Joseph.

One thing to ponder, Valiaka still has an outside shot at being a MI in the majors. The Reds evidently think the he still could ne a viable option as a 2B. Frazier on the other hand appears to be a corner player if he becomes a regular or a Supersub if he's still going to get any time in the middle. In my mind, that means that Valaika has leapfrogged Frazier for now. Valaika likely has enough bat for the middle. Frazier would be a corner player that we'd always hope for more from.

Unfortunately, I think they are both Supersub types. Its OK though, good teams could use a Mark Derosa and a Ronnie Belliard on the bench. I'd be higher on either if they hit left handed. Wish the Reds had a lefty bat that can play MI. I still long for Reid Brignac.

[Homer Bailey]

Surprised at the lack of discussion about Zach Cozart this year.

.270/.356/.460/.816 24 K's/16 BB's

Pretty solid considering his glove is (reportedly) MLB ready. Love to see him keep up solid offensive numbers through the entire season and take over the SS job next year.

[Will M]

the decision to keep Leake over Wood has sure turned out well. nothing against Travis but it seems he needs a bit more work on his control. once he didn't make the big league team out of spring training i knew it meant at least 3 months in AAA. i think both he & Chapman could be ready by the All Star break.

so many of our top guys are off to slow starts. however, several guys have come back from the dead a bit: Valaika, Soto, Mesoraco.

I feel pretty good overall about our minor league guys. one thing to remember is that the core of the Reds is very very young. we don't need a ton of "can't miss" guys to come via the minors. Leake, Chapman, Votto & Bruce could be a mighty big four to build around. that doesn't even count other very young guys on the big league squad (Cueto, Bailey, Stubbs, DRH, Masset,etc).

[Will M]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

Surprised at the lack of discussion about Zach Cozart this year.

.270/.356/.460/.816 24 K's/16 BB's

Pretty solid considering his glove is (reportedly) MLB ready. Love to see him keep up solid offensive numbers through the entire season and take over the SS job next year.

i think it comes down to a couple of issues:
1. everyone expects him in AAA all year
2. no one expects him to be an All Star whereas other prospects have higher ceilings & people like to dream about a prospect reaching his potential

i think if he is OPSing over 800 in August you will see a lot of guys excited about him. a good glove & OPS 750 bat at SS is a really good player in the bigs.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by mth123

Love these kind of threads, but with the horrible starts by all the top guys its hard to like anyone other than Chapman and Mesoraco right now. Cozart, Soto and Valaika have done pretty well and of course the Rodney Dangerfield of the Red's system is Danny Dorn. Others I like include Matt Fairel, Mace Thruman and Donny Joseph.

One thing to ponder, Valiaka still has an outside shot at being a MI in the majors. The Reds evidently think the he still could ne a viable option as a 2B. Frazier on the other hand appears to be a corner player if he becomes a regular or a Supersub if he's still going to get any time in the middle. In my mind, that means that Valaika has leapfrogged Frazier for now. Valaika likely has enough bat for the middle. Frazier would be a corner player that we'd always hope for more from.

Unfortunately, I think they are both Supersub types. Its OK though, good teams could use a Mark Derosa and a Ronnie Belliard on the bench. I'd be higher on either if they hit left handed. Wish the Reds had a lefty bat that can play MI. I still long for Reid Brignac.

You may be right about Frazier vs. Valaika. I don't know why, but I see Valaika in the Drew Sutton/Adam Rosales/Jeff Keppinger mold, in terms of his major league ability. Of course, there is nothing wrong with that, and as you said, every good team could use at least one of those. Frazier may not hit enough to be an All-Star at any of the corner positions, but I do think he could be an average starter. Mark DeRosa is a very good comp for him IMO.

[TRF]

Considering he's fighting a blister problem, how much better does Matt Maloney have to pitch before people notice he's actually pretty good? 1.12 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 3.13 ERA.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

Considering he's fighting a blister problem, how much better does Matt Maloney have to pitch before people notice he's actually pretty good? 1.12 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 3.13 ERA.

Fortunately, the blister problems haven't cost him a chance yet. This year is very likely his last chance to get a legit shot with the Reds before they fully commit to others. He needs to stay healthy moving forward though, in case a spot opens up in Cincinnati for some reason, so he can get his chance.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by TRF

Considering he's fighting a blister problem, how much better does Matt Maloney have to pitch before people notice he's actually pretty good? 1.12 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 3.13 ERA.

If you're referring to this list, he was left out because he is 26 years old, and because he is within 10 innings of not even being considered a rookie.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I'm a bit surprised that many are still thinking Chapman will be up around the ASB. He's so inconsistent it's almost laughable. I know they're working on different things with him and that's affecting him from start to start...but the only thing that's remained consistent for him is the high number of walks. I think he needs to stay down there all year...maybe next year too.

I know he's got a live arm and is a lefty...but thus far, I'm not that impressed. Radar guns aside, he's got to hit the strike zone with it. Golf analogy...he'd thrive in a long drive competition but he's got no short game to play with the big boys. He needs time. 24 walks in 38 innings, he ain't done cookin' yet.

[GIDP]

Only thing Chapman would be doing at the majors right now is relief. I think for the most part the Reds have enough relief pitching.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I'm a bit surprised that many are still thinking Chapman will be up around the ASB. He's so inconsistent it's almost laughable. I know they're working on different things with him and that's affecting him from start to start...but the only thing that's remained consistent for him is the high number of walks. I think he needs to stay down there all year...maybe next year too.

I know he's got a live arm and is a lefty...but thus far, I'm not that impressed. Radar guns aside, he's got to hit the strike zone with it. Golf analogy...he'd thrive in a long drive competition but he's got no short game to play with the big boys. He needs time. 24 walks in 38 innings, he ain't done cookin' yet.

I don't disagree, and I said that he needs to be down until the ASB at least. More than likely he'll be down there through the end of August.

I do find it ironic, though, that the same poster who is touting Homer Bailey's last three starts is complaining of inconsistency from a starting pitcher like Chapman.

[KoryMac5]

Saw Chapman last night in Rochester and he got rocked. He was all over the strikezone and seemed to have trouble getting loose. I would think the best we could hope for out of him this season would be a Sept call up. If he continues to have trouble getting started, relief may be out of the realm of possibilities for him. With Edison possibly coming back around the later part of the year it may serve Chapman better in the long run to stay in Louisville all season.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I do find it ironic, though, that the same poster who is touting Homer Bailey's last three starts is complaining of inconsistency from a starting pitcher like Chapman.

Considerable difference, wouldn't you agree. Homer's proved all he's able to in the minors AND the Reds have burnt all his options. To say it plainly, Homer is in a completely different bind than any of our other prospects due to the Reds mishandling of him. We can't treat him the same or look at him the same because the Reds tied their own hands with him.

And yes, Homer is inconsistent too. He's young, just like Chapman is. Aroldis is MUCH more raw than Homer. It's not even close.

And I wasn't "touting" his last 3 starts. Brutus the Pimp pointed out ALL of our starters' last 3 starts and I was referring to that post as a reference. That is all. If I wanted to point to a string of success for Homer, I'd go to the second half of last year.

[GIDP]

Some of these guys gotta be getting looks on the major league roster soon.

Valaika should probably take over for Cairo.
Dorn could probably take over for Nix.

Fixes bench issue and adds a back up 1st baseman in the process. I dont care if hes a lefty, although I'm guessing the Reds cant get past that little fact.