Who is your pick?

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I worry about that logic. When you are that much better than anyone on your team (or in your league for that matter) teams should be pitching around you all the time. If you still have a low BB rate, that is a bit alarming.

Not saying I am against Brentz, but I think the low BB rate, particularly in the league he plays in, is a red flag.

It's not like he's hack-tastic.

His 2009 line was .465/.535/.930

His 2010: .348/.440/.636.

You really can't fault the guy, as he's almost 100 points above BA with OBP. Last season, he hit so well that his BB rate really didn't matter. Neither set of numbers are bad, per se, and it's quibbling at this high of a level, but patience isn't his strongest suit. That's all I'm saying.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Exactly.... there are no guarantees in life. It is why you take the player that your scouts tell you will be the best, even if it takes him longer.

If the scouts were actually accurate a good percentage of the time, this philosophy would make sense. The scouts have been wrong plenty of times.

Unless the longer term guy is a special type talent that they can't pass up, this team should be focused on quick to the majors type guys. College guys who can play along side the current players.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

If the scouts were actually accurate a good percentage of the time, this philosophy would make sense. The scouts have been wrong plenty of times.

Unless the longer term guy is a special type talent that they can't pass up, this team should be focused on quick to the majors type guys. College guys who can play along side the current players.

The problem with this logic is, scouts are wrong all the time on both college and high school guys. So using any logic that someone is 'closer' because they went to college isn't always correct. Heck, Drew Stubbs was the 2nd college hitter taken in 2006 and to be honest, he probably has been the 2nd best hitter from that draft so far despite a sub .750 OPS in the majors and it took him over 3 years to get here.

It is all perception as to how fast one can actually help out. Jay Bruce went 12th overall and got to the majors quicker than a lot of college guys do. Its about making the right pick, not the one who may get there quickest.

[KoryMac5]

I went with Castellanos for the pick. Draft is not very deep after the first few picks so I am hoping the Reds gamble with HS talent with lots of upside. If your going to gamble on a HS arm or position player I would rather they do it this year, when the potential burn isn't so bad.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The problem with this logic is, scouts are wrong all the time on both college and high school guys. So using any logic that someone is 'closer' because they went to college isn't always correct. Heck, Drew Stubbs was the 2nd college hitter taken in 2006 and to be honest, he probably has been the 2nd best hitter from that draft so far despite a sub .750 OPS in the majors and it took him over 3 years to get here.

It is all perception as to how fast one can actually help out. Jay Bruce went 12th overall and got to the majors quicker than a lot of college guys do. Its about making the right pick, not the one who may get there quickest.

I am obviously not saying that they need to find the next Ryan Wagner. What I am saying is that they should focus on guys who they believe to be the best guy in a group of close to the majors guys who may fit a need. If it is a HS guy then so be it. Brett Anderson was viewed to be a close to the majors guy a few years back. I said college b/c that's what they generally are, but it doesn't matter HS or college.

There are a number of scouts employed by the Reds who all have their own opinions, so unless Junior is on the board I doubt there will be one player who everyone says is the guy to draft.

In my mind, the focus should be on a guy who has a good shot to supplement the current team in 2-3 years. If there is a guy who isn't projected to do that but is a special type talent, then bring him up during the discussion. But if he isn't there, then let's try and get this team a player for the short term.

[Benihana]

So Doug, who would you like to see?

[krm1580]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Sure but wouldn't you like to see someone closer to the majors? I'd rather get someone to add to the lineup to play along side Bruce than get his replacement.

Small payroll teams need to have consistently productive farm systems to remain competitive. So the more talent you can stockpile, the better regardless of how close to the majors they are.

Realistically I don't see the Reds drafting Wilson because he will be expensive since he has a pretty strong commitment to Stanford and he is still raw/toolsy and carries the inherent risks associated with that.

That being said the guy has the biggest upside of any hitter not named Harper and since I don't see the Reds picking this low in the draft anytime soon I say roll the dice and try to grab the potential all-star rather than a "safe" back of the rotation/ back of the batting order type guy.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I am obviously not saying that they need to find the next Ryan Wagner. What I am saying is that they should focus on guys who they believe to be the best guy in a group of close to the majors guys who may fit a need. If it is a HS guy then so be it. Brett Anderson was viewed to be a close to the majors guy a few years back. I said college b/c that's what they generally are, but it doesn't matter HS or college.

There are a number of scouts employed by the Reds who all have their own opinions, so unless Junior is on the board I doubt there will be one player who everyone says is the guy to draft.

In my mind, the focus should be on a guy who has a good shot to supplement the current team in 2-3 years. If there is a guy who isn't projected to do that but is a special type talent, then bring him up during the discussion. But if he isn't there, then let's try and get this team a player for the short term.

Why limit yourself though? You are essentially taking away good players simply because it may take then 4 years to get to the big leagues.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

So Doug, who would you like to see?

Out of who I think could have a chance of being there, here is my top 4, in no real order:
Austin Wilson
AJ Cole
Karsten Whitson
Deck McGuire

Guys I would rather not see:
Alex Wimmers
Kolbrin Vitek
Michael Choice
Christian Colon

Brentz, Castellanos, J Sale, Eibner.... all guys I wouldn't have an issue with either.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by krm1580

That being said the guy has the biggest upside of any hitter not named Harper and since I don't see the Reds picking this low in the draft anytime soon I say roll the dice and try to grab the potential all-star rather than a "safe" back of the rotation/ back of the batting order type guy.

Kind of a tough way to paint the situation.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Why limit yourself though? You are essentially taking away good players simply because it may take then 4 years to get to the big leagues.

Because the future is now for this team.

And I am saying that, if warranted, I'd be into a guy who is a longer term guy. But only if warranted. If he is good enough, I'd be happy to wait. But if there are guys there who are worthy of the 12th pick and can help this team soon, why bother with the projects?

[krm1580]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Kind of a tough way to paint the situation.

That is a fair comment. I recind my 'back of the batting order' comment because there are some guys that I think are pretty good hitters that will be available. I stand by the 'back of the rotation' comment though. I don't see a lot a great arms in this draft.

[REDblooded]

Gimme Brentz... Please. I've been a good fan.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Because the future is now for this team.

And I am saying that, if warranted, I'd be into a guy who is a longer term guy. But only if warranted. If he is good enough, I'd be happy to wait. But if there are guys there who are worthy of the 12th pick and can help this team soon, why bother with the projects?

Even the best of the best pick, isn't going to help the Reds of 2010 or 2011. You don't know the team needs by then other than its not going to need a RF or a 1B. Outside of that, you know nothing of its needs.

As for projects, I think you are confusing 'developing a high school player', which regardless of talent is going to take time because 99.9% of 19 and 20 year olds just aren't ready to play in the majors with 'taking a raw player and teaching him to play baseball rather than just be an athletic freak'. The latter player is a project. Those guys don't often get selected in the top half of the first round.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Why limit yourself though? You are essentially taking away good players simply because it may take then 4 years to get to the big leagues.

Your logic makes sense, but I see the Reds going with near-ready talent in the first round.

The team is so hungry to win in the short-term, I think the Reds likely will focus on guys who can help soon.

Obviously, the risk is that you pass up better high school talent for lesser college talent.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Reds took a high schooler, but I don't expect it.