Who is your pick?

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Even the best of the best pick, isn't going to help the Reds of 2010 or 2011. You don't know the team needs by then other than its not going to need a RF or a 1B. Outside of that, you know nothing of its needs.

As for projects, I think you are confusing 'developing a high school player', which regardless of talent is going to take time because 99.9% of 19 and 20 year olds just aren't ready to play in the majors with 'taking a raw player and teaching him to play baseball rather than just be an athletic freak'. The latter player is a project. Those guys don't often get selected in the top half of the first round.

I'd be shooting/hoping for 2012 ETA.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I'd be shooting/hoping for 2012 ETA.

So what position are you looking at then? How do you know we will even need that guy at that time?

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

So what position are you looking at then? How do you know we will even need that guy at that time?

Depends on who is out there...I would probably look at any position except 1B or someone locked into RF, which probably wouldn't happen. But if that RFer was an absolute stud, of course I'd go there.

I always love getting pitching in the draft. Love it. If a CFer was there who forced my hand, I'd take him. But I wouldn't look there first. I'd absolutely love a legit SS who my people thought would stay there. 2B sure. Catching, probably if there was someone we thought was worth it.

It's not so much what position I'd be looking for as much as the position I wouldn't be looking for. Unless a first baseman was there who was like a Teix type talent, I wouldn't even send my people to look at anyone at that position who wasn't able to move off of it.

[krm1580]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I'd be shooting/hoping for 2012 ETA.

Unfortunately I think Mike Leake has distorted the reality of how long it actually takes for someone to help out at the major league level. There are very, very few guys that can contribute at a major league level even out of college, within 2 years

Look at the college guys taken at the top 10 of the 2007 draft, which means they had a least 2 full years in the minors.

#1 Price - 8-2 2.29 ERA
#4 Moskos - Still in minors
#5 Wieters - OPSing .644
#6 Detwiler - ERA of 5.00
#7 LaPorta - OPSing .567
#8 Weathers - Still in minors

Outside of Price, who was one of the absolute elite prospects in the last decade and the #1 overall pick, most of these guys are not doing much. And that is not to say they won't. I think Wieters will be a star. But my point is the whole notion that you draft guys from college because they are "close" is somewhat flawed and I would not skip over guys because they are further away in high school.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by krm1580

Unfortunately I think Mike Leake has distorted the reality of how long it actually takes for someone to help out at the major league level. There are very, very few guys that can contribute at a major league level even out of college, within 2 years

Look at the college guys taken at the top 10 of the 2007 draft, which means they had a least 2 full years in the minors.

#1 Price - 8-2 2.29 ERA
#4 Moskos - Still in minors
#5 Wieters - OPSing .644
#6 Detwiler - ERA of 5.00
#7 LaPorta - OPSing .567
#8 Weathers - Still in minors

Outside of Price, who was one of the absolute elite prospects in the last decade and the #1 overall pick, most of these guys are not doing much. And that is not to say they won't. I think Wieters will be a star. But my point is the whole notion that you draft guys from college because they are "close" is somewhat flawed and I would not skip over guys because they are further away in high school.

2005 had Braun, Zimmerman, Tulo and Garza.

2006 had Longoria, Lincecum and Joba.

2008 had Posey, Smoak, Davis, Perry and a few other guys knocking on the door right now.

2009 had Leake, Strasburg, Storen with Minor killing it in AA and a potential call up this year.

And I didn't really say "college", I am saying to lean towards the closer to the majors guys. I'll take Jay Bruce over Ryan Wagner every day of the week, but I also wouldn't mind supplementing this team soon.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

2005 had Braun, Zimmerman, Tulo and Garza.

2006 had Longoria, Lincecum and Joba.

2008 had Posey, Smoak, Davis, Perry and a few other guys knocking on the door right now.

2009 had Leake, Strasburg, Storen with Minor killing it in AA and a potential call up this year.

And I didn't really say "college", I am saying to lean towards the closer to the majors guys. I'll take Jay Bruce over Ryan Wagner every day of the week, but I also wouldn't mind supplementing this team soon.

But the point is, you can't tell who is going to get there soon. So you take the guy who will be the best player at the end of the day and live with it.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

But the point is, you can't tell who is going to get there soon. So you take the guy who will be the best player at the end of the day and live with it.

Getting there soon is something that is always said about certain players. You know who is advanced and who isn't. Stubbs wasn't a get there soon guy at the time of the draft, but Leake definitely was. Of course each could have been wrong but that's true with every rating.

But when you say "take the guy who will be the best player at the end of the day and live with it" you know that's an impossibility, especially with HS guys. If it was possible then sure, I'm gonna take the perennial all-star from HS over the middle of the road college pitcher who gets there in 2011. But that doesn't happen. If the scouting consensus was that a HS 3B was going to be the next Zimmerman and they were sure of that and the choice was between him and a guy who the consensus was a college back of the rotation guy, well now that's a discussion. But when you are talking about guys all ranked 10-15, well I'd believe that the odds of one being better than the other in the long run is about 50-50.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Getting there soon is something that is always said about certain players. You know who is advanced and who isn't. Stubbs wasn't a get there soon guy at the time of the draft, but Leake definitely was. Of course each could have been wrong but that's true with every rating.

But when you say "take the guy who will be the best player at the end of the day and live with it" you know that's an impossibility, especially with HS guys. If it was possible then sure, I'm gonna take the perennial all-star from HS over the middle of the road college pitcher who gets there in 2011. But that doesn't happen. If the scouting consensus was that a HS 3B was going to be the next Zimmerman and they were sure of that and the choice was between him and a guy who the consensus was a college back of the rotation guy, well now that's a discussion. But when you are talking about guys all ranked 10-15, well I'd believe that the odds of one being better than the other in the long run is about 50-50.

At the end of the day you listen to what your scouts tell you. If a scout says that the high school kid is better by 1% than the college kid, I take the high school kid every day of the week and twice on Sunday without thinking about it. There is no sure bet in the draft at any draft position. It is why less than 25% of first rounders make it. You take the guy your scouts say will be the best player, even if its by an absolutely minuscule amount.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

At the end of the day you listen to what your scouts tell you. If a scout says that the high school kid is better by 1% than the college kid, I take the high school kid every day of the week and twice on Sunday without thinking about it. There is no sure bet in the draft at any draft position. It is why less than 25% of first rounders make it. You take the guy your scouts say will be the best player, even if its by an absolutely minuscule amount.

Let me ask you this...if you are Walt and your scouts are saying that the two choices that you should be thinking about are a college SS/LF/3B/pick your position and a HS 1B who will never move positions and they are 51/49 in favor of the 1B as ending up with a more successful career (which does not mean that the college kid will be unsuccessful), is that where you are heading with your pick?

[krm1580]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Getting there soon is something that is always said about certain players. You know who is advanced and who isn't. Stubbs wasn't a get there soon guy at the time of the draft, but Leake definitely was. Of course each could have been wrong but that's true with every rating.

But when you say "take the guy who will be the best player at the end of the day and live with it" you know that's an impossibility, especially with HS guys. If it was possible then sure, I'm gonna take the perennial all-star from HS over the middle of the road college pitcher who gets there in 2011. But that doesn't happen. If the scouting consensus was that a HS 3B was going to be the next Zimmerman and they were sure of that and the choice was between him and a guy who the consensus was a college back of the rotation guy, well now that's a discussion. But when you are talking about guys all ranked 10-15, well I'd believe that the odds of one being better than the other in the long run is about 50-50.

I think if Austin Wilson did not have the commitment to Stanford and the potential financial baggage that came along with it, I believe he would be taken in the top 5 picks.

He certainly is not the closest guy to the majors and he is a higher risk for not making the majors at all, but at the end of the day if you were asking who the guy with biggest potential impact would be, I would have him right behind Harper and Tallion

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Let me ask you this...if you are Walt and your scouts are saying that the two choices that you should be thinking about are a college SS/LF/3B/pick your position and a HS 1B who will never move positions and they are 51/49 in favor of the 1B as ending up with a more successful career (which does not mean that the college kid will be unsuccessful), is that where you are heading with your pick?

Walt isn't making the pick or likely having anything to do with it. The scenario you presented isn't valid though, as there isn't a first baseman in this draft with that profile.

But yeah, if he were, I would probably go with the high school first baseman. Joey Votto is likely a FA by the time he is ready anyways and if Alonso is still around at that point, we have trade bait if needed.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Walt isn't making the pick or likely having anything to do with it. The scenario you presented isn't valid though, as there isn't a first baseman in this draft with that profile.

But yeah, if he were, I would probably go with the high school first baseman. Joey Votto is likely a FA by the time he is ready anyways and if Alonso is still around at that point, we have trade bait if needed.

Walt will have the final approval on the pick. He isn't going to log on to mlb.com to find out who they are taking.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by krm1580

I think if Austin Wilson did not have the commitment to Stanford and the potential financial baggage that came along with it, I believe he would be taken in the top 5 picks.

He certainly is not the closest guy to the majors and he is a higher risk for not making the majors at all, but at the end of the day if you were asking who the guy with biggest potential impact would be, I would have him right behind Harper and Tallion

Austin Wilson doesn't make sense for this team. They need guys who can help soon, not lottery tickets. The Reds have a nice window right now, it would be nice to get a guy or 2 who profile to contribute during that time.

[RED VAN HOT]

My arm chair analysis...

This is a good year for a team picking 12th to select for need. I think the Reds are inclined to think near term and select someone likely to be able to help by 2012.
That eliminates any HS players who might be available at 12.

Pitching is an organizational strength. I don't believe they will look there first.

The Reds will not take a middle infielder who lacks plus defensive skills. I believe the Reds have a sufficient pipeline of players who fit that need.

Corner infield is set through 2012. The Reds are unlikely to spend the money required for Cox if he is going to wait until 2013 to move up. Also, they have other candidates in the minors who remain viable.

Minor league catching is looking pretty good. I don't think the Reds want another Alonso type negotiation for a catcher who might not be able to stick at the position.

To me the need is a power hitting corner OF who plays above average defense. That makes Choice the best pick. I think there is a fifty percent chance he will be available. If he is not, then Brentz is next in line.

If neither is available, then I think the Reds go back to pitching rather than take a HS OF'er. I would say McGuire third and Wimmers fourth. Either could be converted to a reliever and help in the bullpen fairly quickly.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Walt will have the final approval on the pick. He isn't going to log on to mlb.com to find out who they are taking.

Of course he isn't, but he is going to listen to exactly what Chris Buckley tells him. Buckley controls the pick.