Reds pitching staff 2010-2011

[Kc61]

I see big changes ahead on this staff. Statistically, no question that the pitching has been the sore spot this year.

Bullpen has really struggled.

Of the original five starters, four of them (all but Leake) have ERAs at or above 4.50.

On top of all this, Harang and Arroyo are free agents after the season.

As we go forward, the rotation will likely be Volquez, Chapman, Cueto, and Leake with, hopefully IMO, a good veteran starter rounding it out. Bailey, if healthy, will also get a chance.

The bullpen needs new blood. I think Herrera and Del Rosario may be the next to go to AAA. Bray should be back. Some new acquisition maybe. Burton hasn't found it yet at AAA. Maybe Donnie Joseph next year, he seems like a guy who should move quickly to the majors. Ondrusek threw well this weekend, maybe he gets more of a shot.

How do you see the pitching staff evolving?

[Benihana]

The way I see it, Leake and Cueto are the only two sure things for next year's rotation.

Between Bailey, Volquez, and Chapman, they will account for two spots- but no more than that IMO due to health/effectiveness/development concerns. I would not rely on the three of them for more than two spots on the staff.

That leaves one spot for a veteran arm. Hopefully the Reds go out and acquire a Haren or a Webb (and re-sign him if he is effective.) If not, they should pick up either Arroyo or Harang's option- most likely Arroyo's given their respective effectiveness.

That leaves:

1. Veteran (Haren, Webb, Arroyo, etc.)
2. Leake
3. Cueto
4. Volquez/Bailey/Chapman
5. Volquez/Bailey/Chapman

Whoever loses the Volquez/Bailey/Chapman derby could pitch out of the pen (if healthy) and would be the first fill-in for the rotation when needed. Next in line would be one of Wood/Maloney/LeCure, similar to this year. I would imagine at least one of Wood/Maloney/LeCure gets traded for help elsewhere in the next few months.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Benihana

The way I see it, Leake and Cueto are the only two sure things for next year's rotation.

Between Bailey, Volquez, and Chapman, they will account for two spots- but no more than that IMO due to health/effectiveness/development concerns. I would not rely on the three of them for more than two spots on the staff.

That leaves one spot for a veteran arm. Hopefully the Reds go out and acquire a Haren or a Webb (and re-sign him if he is effective.) If not, they should pick up either Arroyo or Harang's option- most likely Arroyo's given their respective effectiveness.

That leaves:

1. Veteran (Haren, Webb, Arroyo, etc.)
2. Leake
3. Cueto
4. Volquez/Bailey/Chapman
5. Volquez/Bailey/Chapman

Whoever loses the Volquez/Bailey/Chapman derby could pitch out of the pen (if healthy) and would be the first fill-in for the rotation when needed. Next in line would be one of Wood/Maloney/LeCure, similar to this year. I would imagine at least one of Wood/Maloney/LeCure gets traded for help elsewhere in the next few months.

Gee, you don't think Volquez is a lock to be in next year's rotation? Are you discounting him because of health concerns? Absent further injury, I think he is a sure thing.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Are you discounting him because of health concerns?

Yes.

I hope he is fully healthy, but you look around at guys like Dustin McGowan and Jeremy Bonderman, and you realize that it is far from a sure thing. Same goes for Bailey (although he also carries certain effectiveness concerns.)

[OnBaseMachine]

I would let Arroyo and Harang walk and use that money to acquire an ace, someone like a Cliff Lee or Dan Haren. Edinson Volquez, Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto, and Aroldis Chapman would fill out the rest of the rotation with maybe Homer Bailey going to the bullpen.

When discussing the 2011 bullpen, don't forget about Jose Arredondo. As a 24 year old rookie with the Angels in 2008, Arredondo posted a 1.62 ERA in 61 innings with only 42 hits allowed and a 22 BB/55 K ratio. He struggled in 2009 as he battled elbow problems and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery after being released by the Angels and signed by the Reds. I thought signing Arredondo was an excellent under the radar move by Jocketty. If healthy, he's got a chance to really help the Reds bullpen next season and beyond.

Another guy to keep an eye on is LHP Donnie Joseph. He's been pitching like Billy Wagner in the minors this season and should be ready to step into the majors next season, and maybe even late this season.

I think the pitching staff for next year and beyond looks very promising, especially if the Reds can acquire a vet to put at the top of the rotation.

[reds1869]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

When discussing the 2011 bullpen, don't forget about Jose Arredondo. As a 24 year old rookie with the Angels in 2008, Arredondo posted a 1.62 ERA in 61 innings with only 42 hits allowed and a 22 BB/55 K ratio. He struggled in 2009 as he battled elbow problems and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery after being released by the Angels and signed by the Reds. I thought signing Arredondo was an excellent under the radar move by Jocketty. If healthy, he's got a chance to really help the Reds bullpen next season and beyond.

Arredondo has the potential to be the "new" (and right-handed) Arthur Rhodes. A great 8th inning shut down man and potential closer in waiting.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

I would let Arroyo and Harang walk and use that money to acquire an ace, someone like a Cliff Lee or Dan Haren.

I agree, but it has most likely got to come through trade. They are not going to outbid the Yankees on Cliff Lee after this season, so you can forget that. Haren or maybe even Webb is a possibility, but you have to consider picking up Harang or Arroyo's option as a fallback plan in case they can't acquire (or pay) those guys.

When discussing the 2011 bullpen, don't forget about Jose Arredondo. As a 24 year old rookie with the Angels in 2008, Arredondo posted a 1.62 ERA in 61 innings with only 42 hits allowed and a 22 BB/55 K ratio. He struggled in 2009 as he battled elbow problems and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery after being released by the Angels and signed by the Reds. I thought signing Arredondo was an excellent under the radar move by Jocketty. If healthy, he's got a chance to really help the Reds bullpen next season and beyond.

Another guy to keep an eye on is LHP Donnie Joseph. He's been pitching like Billy Wagner in the minors this season and should be ready to step into the majors next season, and maybe even late this season.

I think the pitching staff for next year and beyond looks very promising, especially if the Reds can acquire a vet to put at the top of the rotation.

You're right. Arredondo could be an amazing addition and a future closer. Or he could go all Bill Bray and disappear. Hope for the former.

[bucksfan2]

I would dangle Cueto as a trading chip. I just don't know if he will ever become a consistent pitcher.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

I would dangle Cueto as a trading chip. I just don't know if he will ever become a consistent pitcher.

I think he'll be consistent. Consistently middle of the rotation. Which is definitely valuable, especially at what he's getting paid.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I think he'll be consistent. Consistently middle of the rotation. Which is definitely valuable, especially at what he's getting paid.

Agreed. IMO Cueto is/will be a very good #3 or a mediocre #2. Either way, he's worth keeping.

[RedsManRick]

I'm not sure that we're paying enough attention to the impact of our defense in this discussion.

	    DER		UZR/150
2009	.705  (3rd)	9.0 (1st)
2010	.683 (12th) 	0.9 (8th)

Clearly our defense has not performed as well this year. Place the blame where you will, but the pitching staff is not getting as much help. That said, how have they performed on their own?

Some relevant data is below, but last year Reds pitchers enjoyed an ERA .45 runs less than FIP would suggest. This year, they're .25 runs above. This year's staff has had a few more K's and a few more homers, but the big difference is a 26 point swing in BABIP. Maybe that's just random variation. Maybe that's allowing more a few more line drives (19.1% in 2009 to 19.9% in 2010). But I think some significant part of it is defense.

I think one of the biggest changes that could be made to help this pitching staff is putting an above average defender at SS. I don't know if that's Janish, Cozart, or somebody from outside of the system. But Cabrera is simply not good enough offensively to offset his defensive shortcomings. I would make the same argument in LF and would like to see Heisey get more time, but I know Gomes will be there so long as he continues to hit as he has.

For SP, I would like to see the money currently being spend on Harang and Arroyo invested in a true ace along the lines of Cliff Lee or Dan Haren. We have the trade assets to acquire one of the guys on the market or the financial flexibility to pursue somebody in FA. We have plenty of SP depth; we lack front end of the rotation talent.

In terms of bullpen, I'd really like to see the Reds make better use of the talent it already has. There is absolutely no reason to use money on guys like Mike Lincoln when you have multiple swing type guys in AAA. This team has not been very creative about making use of talent in the bullpen and could benefit big time from some. Whether that's Bailey, Volquez, Klinker, Maloney, Chapman -- I don't know. But I do know that pitching a guy in relief is not a life sentence. Save for the guys who we're grooming for the rotation and whom will be given a spot when ready, let's get our 11 or 12 best pitchers on the staff and then sort out roles. Having guys like Maloney and Wood on the back burner in AAA does not help the major league team.

2009		    IP	 K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	E-F	xFIP
Bronson Arroyo	 220.1	 5.2	2.7	1.3	.270	 77%	3.84	4.78	-0.94	4.56
Johnny Cueto	 171.1	 6.9	3.2	1.3	.296	 74%	4.41	4.69	-0.28	4.57
Aaron Harang	 162.1	 7.9	2.4	1.3	.339	 76%	4.21	4.14	 0.08	3.95
Micah Owings	 119.2	 5.1	4.8	1.4	.286 	 71%	5.34	5.67	-0.33	5.63
Homer Bailey	 113.1	 6.8	4.1	1.0	.306	 71%	4.53	4.41	 0.11	4.58
Nick Masset	  76.0	 8.3	2.8	0.7	.250	 81%	2.37	3.23	-0.86	3.33
Francisco Corde	  66.2	 7.8	4.1	0.3	.301	 79%	2.16	3.10	-0.94	4.06
Justin Lehr	  65.1	 4.6	3.9	1.9	.277	 77%	5.37	6.30	-0.92	5.35
Daniel Ray Herr   61.2	 6.4	3.5	0.7	.309	 72%	3.06	3.99	-0.92	4.15
Jared Burton	  59.1	 6.8	3.5	0.8	.314	 72%	4.40	4.04	 0.36	4.76
Arthur Rhodes	  53.1	 8.1	3.4	0.5	.249	 78%	2.53	3.21	-0.68	3.96
Carlos Fisher	  52.1	 8.3	5.3	0.7	.316	 73%	4.47	4.09	 0.38	4.51
Edinson Volquez	  49.2	 8.5	5.8	1.1	.231	 74%	4.35	5.01	-0.66	4.62
Kip Wells	  46.1	 4.9	4.3	1.0	.232	 70%	4.66	5.17	-0.51	5.09
Matt Maloney	  40.2	 6.2	1.8	2.0	.282	 77%	4.87	5.41	-0.54	4.81
David Weathers	  38.0	 6.4	4.0	1.7	.200	 88%	3.32	5.41	-2.10	4.74
Mike Lincoln	  23.0	 3.5	7.4	2.7	.283	 74%	8.22	9.27	-1.05	7.09
Josh Roenicke	  13.1	 9.5	2.7	0.0	.355	 77%	2.70	1.90	 0.80	3.02
Ramon Ramirez	  12.1	 5.8	2.9	1.5	.183	 78%	3.65	5.12	-1.48	5.01
Pedro Viola	   7.0	 6.4	3.9	2.6	.253	 83%	5.14	6.67	-1.53	5.10
Robert Manuel	   4.1	 4.2	2.1	0.0	.329	100%	0.00	2.87	-2.87	5.39
Paul Janish	   2.0	13.5	9.0	9.0	.726	  0%   49.50   16.10	33.40	5.83
Total		1458.1	 6.6	3.6	1.2	.288	 74%	4.18	4.63	-0.45	4.57
										
2010		   IP	 K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	 E-F	xFIP
Bronson Arroyo	  86.1	 4.9	3.2	0.9	.271	 67%	4.80	4.52	 0.27	5.06
Johnny Cueto	  78.0	 7.5	2.7	0.9	.311	 71%	4.50	3.85	 0.65	4.11
Mike Leake	  77.1	 6.1	3.4	0.7	.297	 81%	2.68	3.94	-1.26	4.20
Aaron Harang	  76.2	 6.9	2.2	1.4	.337	 69%	5.17	4.46	 0.70	4.00
Homer Bailey	  50.2	 7.3	3.7	1.2	.316	 68%	5.51	4.71	 0.80	4.66
Francisco Corde	  31.0	 8.1	3.8	0.9	.328	 78%	3.77	3.82	-0.04	4.06
Arthur Rhodes	  28.0	 8.4	2.9	0.3	.172	100%	0.32	2.68	-2.36	3.29
Nick Masset	  28.0	11.9	5.1	1.6	.462	 69%	7.07	4.61	 2.46	3.55
Micah Owings	  26.0	 8.3	6.6	0.4	.289	 76%	3.81	4.19	-0.38	5.58
Sam Lecure	  24.0	 6.0	5.6	1.1	.279	 84%	3.75	5.53	-1.78	5.32
Mike Lincoln	  19.2	 5.5	4.6	0.5	.356	 59%	7.32	4.38	 2.94	5.31
Daniel Ray Herr	  17.1	 5.2	1.6	0.5	.382	 75%	4.15	3.22	 0.93	4.05
Logan Ondrusek	  12.2	 4.3	4.3	2.1	.320	 64%	7.82	6.66	 1.15	5.74
Carlos Fisher	  11.0	 8.2	7.4	0.8	.382	 53%	9.82	5.20	 4.62	5.51
Enerio Del Rosa	   8.2	 3.1	4.2	0.0	.377	 77%	2.08	3.80	-1.72	5.06
Total		 575.1	 6.8	3.6	1.0	.314	 72%	4.52	4.70	 0.25	4.46

[Chip R]

I know no one wants to pick up Harang's option but does anyone have any interest in buying him out then re-signing him at a significantly lower price, say about $3-4M a year for 1 year?

[nate]

Rick again says everything I was going to say except better, more persuasively and with better grammar.

Thunder thief!

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by nate

Rick again says everything I was going to say except better, more persuasively and with better grammar.

Thunder thief!

you might as well quit.

[Degenerate39]

2011 Rotation:

Cliff Lee
Edison Volquez
Mike Leake
Johnny Cueto
Aldrois Chapman

Closer- Fransisco Cordero
Set up- Arthur Rhodes
Set up- Jared Burton?
Middle- Billy Bray
Middle- Nick Masset?
Middle- Homer Bailey
Middle- Micah Owings
Long- Sam Lecure