John Erardi article: When will Reds shut down Mike Leake?

[OnBaseMachine]

Interesting stuff from Erardi.

The Reds are aware of the Verducci Effect, but say they don’t have a ceiling on Leake.

Yet, clearly, they are taking care of him: He’s thrown over 100 pitches only five times, and never more than 108. On five different occasions, he has received at least one extra day between starts.

One could imagine the Reds allowing Leake to go to 186 innings (an extra two starts), because of his pitch efficiency. How late in the season would “186” take him?

Sept. 10, three weeks before the end of the regular season. That would mean only 15 more starts for Leake, using his present average of 6.5 innings per start.

If he keeps up pace of averaging 15.4 pitches per inning, he’ll have thrown about 2,900 pitches by the time he hits 186 innings. That’s reasonable -- Arroyo has averaged around 3,300 to 3,400 pitches over the past three seasons.

to read the rest:
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...n-Leake-pitch-

[Will M]

i mentioned this in another thread but i'll bring it up here: why not move Leake to the bullpen when Volquez returns? that way we limit his innings but he can still help the team down the stretch.

i would really like the team to add a starter via trade who is at least a #3. Lee, Oswalt, Haren,etc would be great but we need help.
The rotation could be:
1. acquisition
2. Volquez
3. Arroyo
4. Cueto
5. depends on whether Bailey is dealt for #1 (and if healthy). if Bailey was part of a deal we could use Harang here . Or maybe Wood, Maloney, Lecure,etc.

The pen could be Cordero, Rhodes, Leake plus a potential return of Burton & Bray. I'd add another decent arm here via trade as well.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by Will M

i mentioned this in another thread but i'll bring it up here: why not move Leake to the bullpen when Volquez returns? that way we limit his innings but he can still help the team down the stretch.

He couldn't do worse than some of the other jokers in there now.

[kaldaniels]

I'd like to skip Leake next chance we get (based on off days)

[alexad]

How do you stop using one of your better starters? That is my only question. If you are in it to win it, you have to use him. Unless he continues to pitch badly the next few starts. Bailey is going to have to fit in somewhere in the rotation. Volquez also. I am not sure Leake will be the odd man out. If he is not starting in Cincy, He needs to be starting in AAA. Putting him in the bullpen is not what you want to do with a young starting arm. Just my thoughts.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by alexad

How do you stop using one of your better starters? That is my only question. If you are in it to win it, you have to use him. Unless he continues to pitch badly the next few starts. Bailey is going to have to fit in somewhere in the rotation. Volquez also. I am not sure Leake will be the odd man out. If he is not starting in Cincy, He needs to be starting in AAA. Putting him in the bullpen is not what you want to do with a young starting arm. Just my thoughts.

Or you shut him down when his innings reach a certain point. I'm not for putting Leake in the pen either FWIW, but you can't push him into the danger zone simply because the team is in contention. Kid is 22.

[KronoRed]

If the Reds are close they won't shut Leake down, they will ride that arm and cross their fingers.

[dunner13]

It seems like leake threw a pretty high number of innings last year between college and AFL. Anyone know the exact number?
I do think that because of his style of throwing he will be less prone to injuries. Hes not a max effort guy like volquez or bailey and I think that will make it easier for him to put more innings and wear on his arm.

[Redmachine2003]

Yea lets let a starter pitch out of the bull pen. Didn't we do that with Harang once and that worked out really well. Never been a fan of bouncing pitchers around like that. IMO a start should stay a starter unless he becomes ineffective and he goes to the bullpen for good or if like pitchers with tommyjohn they can be used out of the pen to build arm strength but you can't abuse them. I think it is funny that they even use how many innings they pitch as a measuring stick. It should be more about how many pitches thrown. I think a higher pitch count in stressfull situations and max effort type of pitchers take more of a toll then a pitcher like Leak who keeps his pitch counts down and only throws about 90% effort.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by dunner13

It seems like leake threw a pretty high number of innings last year between college and AFL. Anyone know the exact number?
I do think that because of his style of throwing he will be less prone to injuries. Hes not a max effort guy like volquez or bailey and I think that will make it easier for him to put more innings and wear on his arm.

It was 160, but I don't think you can add the two together. He stopped pitching in June, then didn't pitch in the AFL until October. He threw 142 at Arizona State. That is the target number I would go with as for what he threw last year.

[reds1869]

Innings pitched is just as overrated as pitch count when it comes to pitcher fatigue. All innings pitched are not created equal, and all arms don't respond the same way. Leake has a nice, easy motion that can go a lot longer than someone with a more violent motion. Monitor him carefully and if he shows signs of wearing down, then you skip his spot in the rotation. Shutting him down based on an arbitrary number is silly.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by reds1869

Innings pitched is just as overrated as pitch count when it comes to pitcher fatigue. All innings pitched are not created equal, and all arms don't respond the same way. Leake has a nice, easy motion that can go a lot longer than someone with a more violent motion. Monitor him carefully and if he shows signs of wearing down, then you skip his spot in the rotation. Shutting him down based on an arbitrary number is silly.

Not sure I agree. He had that same nice motion in college against even easier competition. Even at the same number of IP as last year, his workload would seem to have increased and adding 30 IP would seem like a big increase if Leake 2009 is the baseline.

I know many doubt the Verducci effect and I heven't seen enough evidence myself to judge its validity. But, IMO, even if there is sketchy evidence that it could be true, the Reds should follow its guidelines. Young high ceiling arms in their under control years is the Reds ticket out of loserville. I'd do everything possible to keep them healthy. If that means following a cautionary guideline of a theory that hasn't been completely proven, I'd do it w/o question. They didn't with Bailey and he's hurting now.

Leake's absolute max should be 175 IP IMO. If the theory is later proven as hogwash and shutting him down is unnecessary, who cares?

[reds1869]

Originally Posted by mth123

Not sure I agree. He had that same nice motion in college against even easier competition. Even at the same number of IP as last year, his workload would seem to have increased and adding 30 IP would seem like a big increase if Leake 2009 is the baseline.

I know many doubt the Verducci effect and I heven't seen enough evidence myself to judge its validity. But, IMO, even if there is sketchy evidence that it could be true, the Reds should follow its guidelines. Young high ceiling arms in their under control years is the Reds ticket out of loserville. I'd do everything possible to keep them healthy. If that means following a cautionary guideline of a theory that hasn't been completely proven, I'd do it w/o question. They didn't with Bailey and he's hurting now.

Leake's absolute max should be 175 IP IMO. If the theory is later proven as hogwash and shutting him down is unnecessary, who cares?

As I said, if you even suspect Leake is wearing down, flip the switch. They didn't do that with Bailey and are paying the price. But setting an arbitrary number is not the Reds "ticket out of loserville," it is the ticket to shutting down one of your best arms just in case.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by reds1869

As I said, if you even suspect Leake is wearing down, flip the switch. They didn't do that with Bailey and are paying the price. But setting an arbitrary number is not the Reds "ticket out of loserville," it is the ticket to shutting down one of your best arms just in case.

Not sure if the Bailey comp is a good one. Homer was arguably the best pitcher in baseball over the last few weeks of 2009...he wasn't wearing down.

[alexad]

Pitchers use to pitch in a four man rotation. If you want to shut down pitchers, then we need to start going to 6 man rotations. If the kids is good enough to be in the bigs, and the team is in contention, you have to pitch him. It is about winning now for the Reds, not in the future. This team needs to start playing and thinking like a team in contention, not a pretender.