On replacing Harang

[Hoosier Red]

I'm taking my post from the game thread, I don't want to clog that up anymore as I'm trying to follow the game as well.
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Harang's getting paid that money regardless. We can't just say *poof* I want a top line starter, Aaron you're not getting paid anything the rest of the year.
If we get a top line starter, the team trading him won't take Harang back.

So if you assume you're paying Harang for the rest of the year regardless, you pitch the guy who gives you the best chance to win on a given night. Now again Harang had a horrible April and has pitched markedly better since May. Leake had a fabulous April and May and has pitched okay since then.

So if you're trying to figure out who's going to have the best next month, or two months- do you a) Take the guy who's been pitching better for the last month, has a history of throwing 200 innings, and has been pretty reliable for years- or b) Take the rookie pitcher who has no history, has been beaten around a little bit in the past month, is roughly 5-6 starts from hitting his highest innings pitched for the year?

Now there's obviously an added benefit to getting Leake some more starts to build him up for next year, Harang's of no value to the Reds come October 31, but based solely on who's going to give us the best chance to win a game, I'm taking Harang every time.

[RedsManRick]

I as I think I showed pretty clearly in another thread, Harang is who we thought he is -- so long as you didn't expect him to regain 2005-2007 form. We can expect a 4.50ish ERA and lots of innings moving forward. He is not an ace by any stretch, but he belongs in the rotation.

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I as I think I showed pretty clearly in another thread, Harang is who we thought he is -- so long as you didn't expect him to regain 2005-2007 form. We can expect a 4.50ish ERA and lots of innings moving forward. He is not an ace by any stretch, but he belongs in the rotation.

I don't know. I agree he is what he is, but the Reds do have the ability to go out and get a TOR type pitcher at the deadline. Lets say the Reds are planning on getting that pitcher at the deadline, whether it be Lee, Haren, or Carmona. Who do you bump from the rotation? Remember Volquez and Bailey are expected to come back over the next month or so.

I am content with a rotation of
Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Leake
Haren/Carmona

With Bailey being the wild card as to spelling Leake or into the pen. I do know this that if I had to pick one starter to pitch a big game it isn't Harang. If I am setting up a rotation for a playoff series Harang isn't in there. Sure he isn't the worst pitcher, but he isn't a pitcher who is significantly better than what the Reds already have or who the Reds have the ability to go out and trade for.

[Hoosier Red]

If Harang continues on the trajectory he's set up since May 2.
You're looking at 90-100IP over 15-16 starts, about 6 IP per game and about 2-3 Runs per game.(Closer to 3.)

Even if they get a top line starter, I'm not sure I pick 4 other Reds to have a good chance to better that on a night in night out basis.

[RedsManRick]

I believe Harang will have an equal or lower ERA than Mike Leake from this point forward and Leake doesn't have the innings left to finish the season.

Even if the Reds land an impact starter, he's still among the 4 best remaining candidates (Cueto, Arroyo, Harang, and Volquez or Bailey)

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

I am content with a rotation of
Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Leake
Haren/Carmona

With Bailey being the wild card as to spelling Leake or into the pen. I do know this that if I had to pick one starter to pitch a big game it isn't Harang. If I am setting up a rotation for a playoff series Harang isn't in there. Sure he isn't the worst pitcher, but he isn't a pitcher who is significantly better than what the Reds already have or who the Reds have the ability to go out and trade for.

I tend to agree with this. Key is getting a TOR starter for August and September.

[VR]

The numbers say he is throwing the majority of his fastballs now at 88-89, topping out at 91. He threw several 87 mph fastballs today, I don't recall seeing that.

Earlier this year, he was his usual self, averaging 91-92, topping out just above that.

Perhaps it's a change in strategy w/ Price, but my concern at this point is a potential injury or fatigue.


I'm very fine for this year w/ Aaron at 4.50 earnie and a .500 record.....but he seems on the precipice of disaster most outings these days.

[Razor Shines]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

I don't know. I agree he is what he is, but the Reds do have the ability to go out and get a TOR type pitcher at the deadline. Lets say the Reds are planning on getting that pitcher at the deadline, whether it be Lee, Haren, or Carmona. Who do you bump from the rotation? Remember Volquez and Bailey are expected to come back over the next month or so.

I am content with a rotation of
Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Leake
Haren/Carmona

With Bailey being the wild card as to spelling Leake or into the pen. I do know this that if I had to pick one starter to pitch a big game it isn't Harang. If I am setting up a rotation for a playoff series Harang isn't in there. Sure he isn't the worst pitcher, but he isn't a pitcher who is significantly better than what the Reds already have or who the Reds have the ability to go out and trade for.

I'm afraid Leake is going to have a bit of a tough time from here on out. Not to say I don't think he's going to be a solid ML pitcher in years to come, but he's a rookie and he's going to do what rookies do. He'll probably throw in a really nice start here and there, but I think what we've seen of him lately will be more typical for the rest of the season. I think we should just be thankful that he gave us a really great bump for the start of the season and hope he can be league average until his innings are used up.

Again, I think he's going to be a fine pitcher, but he's got some learning and maturing to do.

[fearofpopvol1]

I may be in the minority, but I would feel more comfortable counting on Harang this year than counting on Bailey if both are healthy.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I may be in the minority, but I would feel more comfortable counting on Harang this year than counting on Bailey if both are healthy.

I tend to agree.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I may be in the minority, but I would feel more comfortable counting on Harang this year than counting on Bailey if both are healthy.

It's not even debatable who the better pitcher is.

[CTA513]

Originally Posted by VR

The numbers say he is throwing the majority of his fastballs now at 88-89, topping out at 91. He threw several 87 mph fastballs today, I don't recall seeing that.

Earlier this year, he was his usual self, averaging 91-92, topping out just above that.

Perhaps it's a change in strategy w/ Price, but my concern at this point is a potential injury or fatigue.


I'm very fine for this year w/ Aaron at 4.50 earnie and a .500 record.....but he seems on the precipice of disaster most outings these days.

I think hes working at 87-88 mph on purpose (better control?).
He showed in the 1st inning that he can still hit 93 mph, but sat around 87-90 mph most of the game.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

It's not even debatable who the better pitcher is.

I think you would be surprised how many people on RZ would prefer Bailey over Harang this year. That may be slightly lessened by Bailey's injury...but I think my view is in the minority.

I think Harang's numbers will only get better as the season goes on. I saw him pitch yesterday and even though the mistake pitch he made was costly, he looked good on the mound.

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by Razor Shines

I'm afraid Leake is going to have a bit of a tough time from here on out. Not to say I don't think he's going to be a solid ML pitcher in years to come, but he's a rookie and he's going to do what rookies do. He'll probably throw in a really nice start here and there, but I think what we've seen of him lately will be more typical for the rest of the season. I think we should just be thankful that he gave us a really great bump for the start of the season and hope he can be league average until his innings are used up.

Again, I think he's going to be a fine pitcher, but he's got some learning and maturing to do.

Yea I don't really know what to think of Leake going forward this season. I think more than anything he has hit a rough patch, maybe has a tired arm, or maybe the league is starting to catch up to him. But to be honest in the game against the Phillies CB Bucknor's strike zone was awful and that hurt Leake.

But with regards to the entire rotation the only player who I don't see having a future with the Reds is Harang. I would feel much more comfortable going forward with one of Lee/Haren/Carmona and then one of Bailey/Leake than Harang and one of Bailey and Leake. I am not necessarily saying that Bailey or Leake are better right now than Harang (although I think it is debatable) but Lee/Haren/Carmona >>> Harang.

Lets also not forget that over the last 2.5 seasons Harang is 18-38. Granted it isn't all on him but going forward this season it isn't going to be pitching "unlucky" its going to be about winning games. IMO I feel much more comfortable with one of three above mentioned players winning more games than Harang.