Observations from Citi Field, 7.6.10

[fearofpopvol1]

On the hottest day in NYC since 2001, I made the trek to Citi Field to watch the game. I have quite a few novice thoughts about what I saw.

A.) Pre-game, Brandon Phillips signed more autographs for little kids than any player of any team.

B.) 1st inning, Phillips doubles with no outs. Cabrera bunts him over to 3rd? Why? True, he could've struck out or flyed out but that just didn't seem productive to me to give away an out in that situation, even with Votto following him. Some may disagree.

C.) Matt Maloney. First time watching him pitch live. I had good seats. He has great command and he definitely knows how to work the corners...but to all of his supporters...he's not a guy you would want in the Reds rotation IMO. First off, Wood has much better stuff than he does and to be honest, I think Sam LeCure has better stuff than Maloney does too. Maloney gave up a ton of balls that either would've been out at GAB or off the wall. I do think he could be a BOR starter somewhere out west though and he's not a bad guy to have at AAA for depth, but I would not want Maloney in the rotation for the Reds. Also, a bad pitch can happen to anyone, but giving Santana his first career home run? Who is a LH batter? That seemed suspect. Chapman, Wood and LeCure are all better IMO.

D.) It wasn't that Santana was so great tonight, it was that the Reds did him a lot of favors. I don't know whose idea it was to hack early in the counts, but I think if the Reds had been more patient at the plate, they would've gotten better pitches to hit or would've forced more walks. The Mets also are currently very short in their pen and forcing their pen to pitch would have favored the Reds a lot. Instead, Santana throws a complete game 3 hit shutout. I just don't get the 1st pitch swinging. I don't think it resulted in a single hit the entire night. Brandon Phillips and oddly enough Corky Miller were the only ones I thought tonight who made great contact with his pitches.

E.) By far, the most damaging part of the evening was the 5th inning. Maloney was already around and then later above 100 pitches. He was laboring. The Mets had figured him out. Despite letting runners on base Maloney somehow managed to get 2 outs with runners at 2nd and 3rd and Bay up. The Mets only had 1 run at this point. Maloney was at I believe 104 pitches at this point and Bay was up, who had been hitting Maloney hard the whole night, just without results. I immediately said to myself...he should be replaced. This is a crucial time in the game, Maloney does not have the best stuff, get a high leverage arm in there. If you don't, it's going to end badly. What happens? Dusty leaves him in....boom. 2 run 2 out single. I know a lot of people dislike Dusty and his decisions...but the 1 I cannot understand for the life of me is Baker's obsession with letting pitchers finish the inning they started and then yanking the pitcher only after they explode and it's too late as the other team has put up a big crooked number. Maybe that's part of his MO in being a "player's manager," but it doesn't help the team. There is no reason he should have let Maloney pitch in that spot. Can anyone explain this to me? Has Dusty ever explained it? It's not like Maloney had the lead or anything and it's not like he wasn't having trouble. He was definitely having a bad inning. I just do not understand the long leash for pitchers in close games.

F.) Ondrusek looked really good. I've been critical of him in the past, but I'm starting to come around. He may be a useful guy in the pen.

G.) Honestly, Bray did not look that good to me. I know he's just coming back and he ended up doing okay on paper tonight, but I think he should be in low pressure situations for a while longer.

That's pretty much all I got. Did anyone else go?

[nemesis]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

E.)I know a lot of people dislike Dusty and his decisions...but the 1 I cannot understand for the life of me is Baker's obsession with letting pitchers finish the inning they started and then yanking the pitcher only after they explode and it's too late as the other team has put up a big crooked number. Maybe that's part of his MO in being a "player's manager," but it doesn't help the team. There is no reason he should have let Maloney pitch in that spot. Can anyone explain this to me? Has Dusty ever explained it? It's not like Maloney had the lead or anything and it's not like he wasn't having trouble. He was definitely having a bad inning. I just do not understand the long leash for pitchers in close games.

He wanted to get him a chance at the win in case they scored the next inning. Said it before, say it again, he manages for the what if and not the what is.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

E.) By far, the most damaging part of the evening was the 5th inning. Maloney was already around and then later above 100 pitches. He was laboring. The Mets had figured him out. Despite letting runners on base Maloney somehow managed to get 2 outs with runners at 2nd and 3rd and Bay up. The Mets only had 1 run at this point. Maloney was at I believe 104 pitches at this point and Bay was up, who had been hitting Maloney hard the whole night, just without results. I immediately said to myself...he should be replaced. This is a crucial time in the game, Maloney does not have the best stuff, get a high leverage arm in there. If you don't, it's going to end badly. What happens? Dusty leaves him in....boom. 2 run 2 out single. I know a lot of people dislike Dusty and his decisions...but the 1 I cannot understand for the life of me is Baker's obsession with letting pitchers finish the inning they started and then yanking the pitcher only after they explode and it's too late as the other team has put up a big crooked number. Maybe that's part of his MO in being a "player's manager," but it doesn't help the team. There is no reason he should have let Maloney pitch in that spot. Can anyone explain this to me? Has Dusty ever explained it? It's not like Maloney had the lead or anything and it's not like he wasn't having trouble. He was definitely having a bad inning. I just do not understand the long leash for pitchers in close games.

First of all, nice post.

I agree with ya. I was surprised when Dusty didn't bring in Ondrusek to face Jason Bay. With the way Santana was pitching, the Reds had to hold the Mets to that one run and I thought Ondrusek gave them the best chance at keeping the Mets scoreless in that inning. Unfortunately, Dusty stuck with Maloney one batter too long and it come back to hurt him. Who knows, maybe Ondrusek would have allowed those two runs to score but I thought he was a better matchup vs Bay. I'll surely jinx him with this post but Logan Ondrusek has now retired the last 19 batters he's faced.

I also didn't like the sac bunt in the first inning. Phillips was already in scoring position, there's no need to give up an out in that situation, IMO.

Oh well, hopefully good Arroyo shows up Wednesday night and the Reds cap off another series win.

[nemesis]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Oh well, hopefully good Arroyo shows up Wednesday night and the Reds cap off another series win.

Arroyo rules the Mets.

He walks past the Mets dugout during pregame and mouths the words "own you" while winking and pointing at them... LOL

[OesterPoster]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

E.) What happens? Dusty leaves him in....boom. 2 run 2 out single. I know a lot of people dislike Dusty and his decisions...but the 1 I cannot understand for the life of me is Baker's obsession with letting pitchers finish the inning they started and then yanking the pitcher only after they explode and it's too late as the other team has put up a big crooked number. Maybe that's part of his MO in being a "player's manager," but it doesn't help the team. There is no reason he should have let Maloney pitch in that spot. Can anyone explain this to me? Has Dusty ever explained it? It's not like Maloney had the lead or anything and it's not like he wasn't having trouble. He was definitely having a bad inning. I just do not understand the long leash for pitchers in close games.

I was listening on the radio during this segment, and Brantley/Marty did not like the decision to leave Maloney in...then take him out. Brantley referred to it as "closing the barn door after the horses already are out".

[Falls City Beer]

I wasn't there, but I watched the first three innings. Maloney's got good control and that is it. Literally. No life or movement on the FB. Seems to know what to do, but he doesn't have MLB stuff. I agree with fearofpop.

[Plus Plus]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

G.) Honestly, Bray did not look that good to me. I know he's just coming back and he ended up doing okay on paper tonight, but I think he should be in low pressure situations for a while longer.

Interestingly, I had the complete polar opposite opinion of Bray after going to the Reds/Cubs game on Saturday 7/3/10. Bray looked very dominant, and struck out the side without a single good hack from a Cub. Given, the Mets offense is light years better than the Cubs, but interesting none the less.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I wasn't there, but I watched the first three innings. Maloney's got good control and that is it. Literally. No life or movement on the FB. Seems to know what to do, but he doesn't have MLB stuff. I agree with fearofpop.

Agree. His stuff always screams AAAA to me. He's a fine AAA pitcher but when he gets to this level he is exposed. IMO we gave away a game last night; Lecure or Chapman give us more of a shot to win last night.

There really was no sense in signing Aroldis Chapman if we're going to throw away games by starting Matt Maloneys against Johan Santanas in a pennant race. Silly, silly move by the organization.

[Plus Plus]

Originally Posted by JayBruce32

Agree. His stuff always screams AAAA to me. He's a fine AAA pitcher but when he gets to this level he is exposed. IMO we gave away a game last night; Lecure or Chapman give us more of a shot to win last night.

There really was no sense in signing Aroldis Chapman if we're going to throw away games by starting Matt Maloneys against Johan Santanas in a pennant race. Silly, silly move by the organization.

Options were very limited yesterday, as Harang went on the DL at something like 430pm...

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by JayBruce32

Agree. His stuff always screams AAAA to me. He's a fine AAA pitcher but when he gets to this level he is exposed. IMO we gave away a game last night; Lecure or Chapman give us more of a shot to win last night.

There really was no sense in signing Aroldis Chapman if we're going to throw away games by starting Matt Maloneys against Johan Santanas in a pennant race. Silly, silly move by the organization.

I am fairly certain that the entire Reds organization does not thing Chapman is ready to start at the major league level. It was made even more evident when they put him in the pen this season. Comments like these make me scratch my head. It is unfortunate that Maloney had to start against Santana but that is the nature of MLB. You don't get to pick and choose when someone gets hurt and whose turn it is at the AAA level.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

On the hottest day in NYC since 2001, I made the trek to Citi Field to watch the game. I have quite a few novice thoughts about what I saw.

A.) Pre-game, Brandon Phillips signed more autographs for little kids than any player of any team.

B.) 1st inning, Phillips doubles with no outs. Cabrera bunts him over to 3rd? Why? True, he could've struck out or flyed out but that just didn't seem productive to me to give away an out in that situation, even with Votto following him. Some may disagree.

C.) Matt Maloney. First time watching him pitch live. I had good seats. He has great command and he definitely knows how to work the corners...but to all of his supporters...he's not a guy you would want in the Reds rotation IMO. First off, Wood has much better stuff than he does and to be honest, I think Sam LeCure has better stuff than Maloney does too. Maloney gave up a ton of balls that either would've been out at GAB or off the wall. I do think he could be a BOR starter somewhere out west though and he's not a bad guy to have at AAA for depth, but I would not want Maloney in the rotation for the Reds. Also, a bad pitch can happen to anyone, but giving Santana his first career home run? Who is a LH batter? That seemed suspect. Chapman, Wood and LeCure are all better IMO.

D.) It wasn't that Santana was so great tonight, it was that the Reds did him a lot of favors. I don't know whose idea it was to hack early in the counts, but I think if the Reds had been more patient at the plate, they would've gotten better pitches to hit or would've forced more walks. The Mets also are currently very short in their pen and forcing their pen to pitch would have favored the Reds a lot. Instead, Santana throws a complete game 3 hit shutout. I just don't get the 1st pitch swinging. I don't think it resulted in a single hit the entire night. Brandon Phillips and oddly enough Corky Miller were the only ones I thought tonight who made great contact with his pitches.

E.) By far, the most damaging part of the evening was the 5th inning. Maloney was already around and then later above 100 pitches. He was laboring. The Mets had figured him out. Despite letting runners on base Maloney somehow managed to get 2 outs with runners at 2nd and 3rd and Bay up. The Mets only had 1 run at this point. Maloney was at I believe 104 pitches at this point and Bay was up, who had been hitting Maloney hard the whole night, just without results. I immediately said to myself...he should be replaced. This is a crucial time in the game, Maloney does not have the best stuff, get a high leverage arm in there. If you don't, it's going to end badly. What happens? Dusty leaves him in....boom. 2 run 2 out single. I know a lot of people dislike Dusty and his decisions...but the 1 I cannot understand for the life of me is Baker's obsession with letting pitchers finish the inning they started and then yanking the pitcher only after they explode and it's too late as the other team has put up a big crooked number. Maybe that's part of his MO in being a "player's manager," but it doesn't help the team. There is no reason he should have let Maloney pitch in that spot. Can anyone explain this to me? Has Dusty ever explained it? It's not like Maloney had the lead or anything and it's not like he wasn't having trouble. He was definitely having a bad inning. I just do not understand the long leash for pitchers in close games.

F.) Ondrusek looked really good. I've been critical of him in the past, but I'm starting to come around. He may be a useful guy in the pen.

G.) Honestly, Bray did not look that good to me. I know he's just coming back and he ended up doing okay on paper tonight, but I think he should be in low pressure situations for a while longer.

That's pretty much all I got. Did anyone else go?

I went last night also. Actually was my third Reds game this week (caught Saturday and Sunday at Wrigley)

Pretty much agree with your assessments. Maloney was hanging on by a thread all night, and I think his line looked better than the actual outing. He is a good spot starter/long reliever, nothing more- just like LeCure and Owings, although he is left-handed. He reminded me of the patchwork starters from the late Bowden years- a Bobby Basham or Josh Hall here, a Jose Acevedo or a Lance Davis there.

The Reds swinging on the first pitch of almost every at-bat really irked me. Ondrusek looked very good. Bray not so much.

[yab1112]

I was there. It was like, 100 degrees out. I'll disagree with your D though. Santana was lights out. Yes the Reds were swinging early in the count, but you almost have to when Jo-Han is on his game. He forces the issue.

[RichRed]

I didn't have much of a problem with Cabrera bunting Phillips to 3rd, but that's only because I figured he was going to make an out anyway (a .291 OBP will do that). Generally speaking though, I don't care for that strategy.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by RichRed

I didn't have much of a problem with Cabrera bunting Phillips to 3rd, but that's only because I figured he was going to make an out anyway (a .291 OBP will do that). Generally speaking though, I don't care for that strategy.

I could go either way on that. Dusty may have figured - correctly - that the Reds weren't going to score many runs off Santana and 1 run might have made the difference. I can't fault him too much there especially with Votto and Rolen coming up.

[mbgrayson]

Originally Posted by Chip R

I could go either way on that. Dusty may have figured - correctly - that the Reds weren't going to score many runs off Santana and 1 run might have made the difference. I can't fault him too much there especially with Votto and Rolen coming up.

Last night I thought that Dusty made a bad decision to have Cabrerra bunt Phillips to third. Then, today, I looked up an interesting article on run proabability in bunt situations, and I'm not so sure. See the article HERE.

The general run expectancy for a runner on second with no outs is about 1.054, while the run expenctancy of a runner on third with one out is .907. So that means that IF the bunt succeeds, you will reduce the chance of scoring. Of course, if the bunt fails, you end up with a runner on second or first with one out, and the run expectancy declines even more. So from this standpoint, it looked like a bad call to bunt.

However, when you look at the likliehood of scoring one run, and you factor in the position in the batting order affected, the chance of scoring one run with the #2 hitter up with a runner on second and no outs is .659. The chances of scoring one run with a generic #3 hitter up and with a runner on third and one out is .696. So the chances of scoring one runner are a little higher IF the bunt works, which it did. Plus, Votto and Rolen may be above average as #3 and #4 hitters, while Cabrerra is likely below average as a #2 hitter although he is a good bunter, which make this way look a little better.

However, why would you play for one run in the first inning? That isn't really a very good strategy given that Santana has not been all that effective over his last six or seven starts. Even in view of all this statistical stuff, I wouldn't have given away that out.