Cliff Lee

[OesterPoster]

I emailed Jason over at the Mariners' site prospectinsider.com to get his opinion about our prospects, and below is his response. The tidbit about Arias seems odd to me. I didn't realize he's a commodity with high potential.

I'm hearing Cincy wants no part of trading for a rental SP right now, and are focused on shoring up the bench, bullpen and a plan for the starting rotation. Edinson Volquez is coming off the DL sometime between this coming weekend and early next week -- he was up to 98 again in rehab Tuesday night -- and Homer Bailey has started to throw again, slated for a bullpen session before the all-star break.

If that weren't the case ... Alonso could be a soft headline name in such a deal. Toss in a Frazier, Wood or Francisco and a Junior Arias, or a Heisey/Arias combo and that would probably be a competitive package.

I'm not sure there's enough in the system to 1) warrant such a move, which is probably what Walt is thinking, too, and 2) gutting the system is never good. It's not a deep system with all the top guys either in the big leagues, on the 40-man roster or on the cusp of both.

Reds are a long shot at this point, at least without a third team getting involved to help get Seattle what it wants. If they want a starting pitcher, Fausto Carmona is a perfect match. Won't cost a ton in trade -- though he won't be super cheap -- and is signed through 2011.

Jason

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by OesterPoster

I emailed Jason over at the Mariners' site prospectinsider.com to get his opinion about our prospects, and below is his response. The tidbit about Arias seems odd to me. I didn't realize he's a commodity with high potential.

Alonso, Hesiey and Arias?

That's almost laughable. Done and done!

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Alonso, Hesiey and Arias?

That's almost laughable. Done and done!

Jason's argument stems from this:

I'm not sure there's enough in the system to 1) warrant such a move, which is probably what Walt is thinking, too, and 2) gutting the system is never good. It's not a deep system with all the top guys either in the big leagues, on the 40-man roster or on the cusp of both.

The strength of the Reds system from a position player standpoint is mostly one of depth.

[Spitball]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

As for the whole trade Larkin conversation. Hindsight is always 20/20 and the Reds made the right decision, but were the Reds ever seriously entertaining trading Larkin. They drafted him out of HS and then in the 1st round out of college. He was a home town boy who had made his way through the minors to the Reds. I would imagine the Reds would have given him more than enough rope. I know it is talked about, but it seemed like the common sense decision was made. Am I off base here?

I don't believe the Reds were ever seriously considering trading Larkin. He and Stillwell were both prospects but Larkin had the much higher ceiling.

Like you said, he was a hometown boy and a first round draft choice. Stillwell was not particularly impressive offensively and not such great shakes defensively either.

I believe the Reds may have lured prospective trade partners in with interest in Larkin but would switch the offer to Stillwell. At the time they were trying to acquire Rueschel late in the 1987 season, they were talking very seriously with the Royals about acquiring right handed starter Mark Gubicza. The deal fell through when the Reds refused to give them Larkin instead of Stillwell.

Later that winter, the Royals agreed to give up left handed starter Danny Jackson for Stillwell. Jackson had worn out his welcome in KC because he was hard to coach. If the Reds had agreed to give up Larkin, they could have had the more highly regarded Gubicza.

[wally post]

Lee and Sabathia had dinner last night. They are buddies. I'd say the odds are 9 to 1 that he signs with the Yankees next year. I think a rental would cost us too much - as many are saying here.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by OesterPoster

I emailed Jason over at the Mariners' site prospectinsider.com to get his opinion about our prospects, and below is his response. The tidbit about Arias seems odd to me. I didn't realize he's a commodity with high potential.

Keith Law rated Arias as the Reds 10th best prospect. He's only 18 years old and has the defensive tools to stick at SS to go along with a nice bat. He's currently OPSing close to .900 in the Arizona League.

The Reds need another starting pitcher, whether it be Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, or Dan Haren. If they decide to go cheaper, Fausto Carmona would be a nice acquisition as well, IMO. I think it's becoming more and more evident that the Reds need another starting pitcher to hang in the race. Cueto has been good. Arroyo is inconsistent. Leake has been good up until lately but is starting to hit that rookie wall. He'll bounce back but the Reds have to watch his innings. Then you have Harang who has been pretty bad. He's putting a ton of runners on base and is a bad matchup against a good offensive club (like the Phillies today). Hopefully Walt is working on acquiring the Reds a starting pitcher.

[RedsManRick]

Great article on Lee in the NY Post today.

http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/hardba...4K2sd2wlGyGlKM

1. “You can’t give up top prospects because acquiring Lee doesn’t guarantee that you make the playoffs.” Yes, the acquisition of Lee – or any player – does not come with a certificate that automatically sends the acquiring team into the playoffs. But by this logic, no team would ever add anyone. The idea is to enhance your chances to make the playoffs and then do some damage once you are in the playoffs.

...

2. “I would never trade that prospect for Lee.” There is so much wrong with statements like this, including that most of the people who make that statement have never even seen the minor leaguer play. There are many wonderful elements about the statistical revolution and what is available on the internet. But among the bad things is that it has made too many people feel that they know prospects who they do not really know at all.

...

3. “The Mets can’t include Angel Pagan in a trade for Lee.” This is so dumb on so many levels, notably the Pagan level and the “we don’t want to give anyone of value up, but we want to get one of the five best pitchers in the world return nevertheless level.”

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by jojo

The strength of the Reds system from a position player standpoint is mostly one of depth.

Yeah, I found that quote interesting too. The Reds system has very little top end talent but all sorts of depth.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Great article on Lee in the NY Post today.

http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/hardba...4K2sd2wlGyGlKM

What's odd is...doesn't it seem like the bigger market teams can get away with hosing the smaller market teams in trades better than the smaller market teams trading with each other. I admit, I haven't done the research, but it seems like the big market teams get the better end of the deals when they are trading for a player already at the show. I know often times it's a result of salary and a smaller team trying to shed it and being in a desperate spot, but still.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

What's odd is...doesn't it seem like the bigger market teams can get away with hosing the smaller market teams in trades better than the smaller market teams trading with each other. I admit, I haven't done the research, but it seems like the big market teams get the better end of the deals when they are trading for a player already at the show. I know often times it's a result of salary and a smaller team trying to shed it and being in a desperate spot, but still.

I think this is a big part of it. Because they can (and do) take on salary, they don't have to give up us much in talent.

[Bill]

According to the NY Times, Lee will end up with the Twins soon and then the Yanks over the winter.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/30/sp.../30kepner.html

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Bill

According to the NY Times, Lee will end up with the Twins soon and then the Yanks over the winter.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/30/sp.../30kepner.html

The Twins and the Ms are a good fit as trade partners.

[OnBaseMachine]

Peter Gammons just said on MLB Tonight that the Reds really want Cliff Lee and are a sleeper for him. He said Jack Z. would be interested in Yonder Alonso as the main piece. Gammons said he talked to a Reds official today and he told him Lee is who the Reds want.

[fearofpopvol1]

I previously thought that Alonso was a bit much for a few months of Lee but I am starting to come around. I really think Lee would push the Reds over the top to win the Central. So, I would say get it done. I am sure they would want more than Alonso, so I'd be curious to know what the extra parts would be.

I would not want to get in a bidding war with the Twins though.

[OnBaseMachine]

Larry Stone of the Seattle Times just tweeted this to me:

I have the Reds as a stealth candidate. (for Lee)

http://twitter.com/StoneLarry