Juan Francisco

[redsfandan]

Originally Posted by GIDP

I think Seattle really likes Smoak a lot. I'm not sure they would have taken any other offers.

Yeah, I know. That's why I said probably not. But I wonder what Alonso/Francisco could bring.

[Vottomatic]

He appears to be a slightly better Willy Mo Pena IMHO.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

He appears to be a slightly better Willy Mo Pena IMHO.

Agreed. I would love to see us cash him in for a slightly better Arroyo.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Agreed. I would love to see us cash him in for a slightly better Arroyo.

x2

Could we assume that Walt Jocketty is a slightly better Krivsky?

I think Francisco will have value at the major league level, but probably as a reserve/role player that can be a good LH bat off the bench and/or insurance option for Rolen's back. But of course, if they could parlay him into another Arroyo (or better), I wouldn't think twice.

[REDblooded]

WHO CARES about his OBP? Seriously... If the guy still reaches base at a decent clip because he still manages to make enough contact to be successful, it puts WAY more pressure on the defense than a guy drawing a walk... I've never seen an overthrown throw to first on a walk. I've never seen the SS misplay the bounce on a walk...

Seriously. If the guy continues to scald the ball, strike out more than normal, but plays with an aggressive approach, I fail to see the issue... If he stops making hard contact consistently, then I'm fine with the worry. Outside of that, all I'm witnessing is a bunch of sabermatricians freaking out because they don't know how to deal with an outlier.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by REDblooded

WHO CARES about his OBP? Seriously... If the guy still reaches base at a decent clip because he still manages to make enough contact to be successful, it puts WAY more pressure on the defense than a guy drawing a walk... I've never seen an overthrown throw to first on a walk. I've never seen the SS misplay the bounce on a walk...

Seriously. If the guy continues to scald the ball, strike out more than normal, but plays with an aggressive approach, I fail to see the issue... If he stops making hard contact consistently, then I'm fine with the worry. Outside of that, all I'm witnessing is a bunch of sabermatricians freaking out because they don't know how to deal with an outlier.

Because...MLB pitchers are better and smarter than AAA pitchers. They have better stuff and since Cisco cannot take a walk, they're going to throw him stuff out of the zone all day every day and he's going to swing at it. Heck, even Stubbs and Bruce are having big time problems with this same thing right now.

[REDblooded]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

Because...MLB pitchers are better and smarter than AAA pitchers. They have better stuff and since Cisco cannot take a walk, they're going to throw him stuff out of the zone all day every day and he's going to swing at it. Heck, even Stubbs and Bruce are having big time problems with this same thing right now.

I'll give you the fact that on the average major league pitchers make better pitches... However, you can't discount the fact that a hit is worth more than a walk... I've seen the sabermetric values on a single over a walk... Even in that type of game, they're worth more. I would STILL rather have a hitter that has an aggressive approach, makes contact at a decent clip, versus a guy that's afraid to swing, would rather try to walk his way on base, and still get out.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by REDblooded

I'll give you the fact that on the average major league pitchers make better pitches... However, you can't discount the fact that a hit is worth more than a walk... I've seen the sabermetric values on a single over a walk... Even in that type of game, they're worth more. I would STILL rather have a hitter that has an aggressive approach, makes contact at a decent clip, versus a guy that's afraid to swing, would rather try to walk his way on base, and still get out.

Francisco doesn't make contact at a decent clip though. That's the problem. It isn't that he doesn't walk. Its that he doesn't walk and strikes out a bunch. If he struck out 10% of the time, no one would care. But he strikes out 20-25% of the time.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by REDblooded

WHO CARES about his OBP? Seriously... If the guy still reaches base at a decent clip because he still manages to make enough contact to be successful, it puts WAY more pressure on the defense than a guy drawing a walk...

The key word here is "If". The point Doug has made over and over again is that batters with Fransisco's profile do NOT "still make enough contact to be successful" once they get to the majors. Your premise is based on a flawed assumption.

The better pitchers of the major leagues eat guys like Fransisco for lunch. He won't hit .280 in the major leagues. Pitchers will throw better pitches for strikes, more attractive pitches for balls, and fewer mistakes that Fransisco can crush. He'll make less and weaker contact than he does now.

In terms of current production, I'll take a hit over a walk 10 times out of 10. But we're talking about how Fransisco's skills will translate in to major league production. And everything we know about that translation says that you can't strike out so much and walk so little and still be successful in the majors. Look at Brandon Wood. Look at Chris Davis. Those are just two examples of guys, who actually walked more than Fransisco, who made as much as contact and hit for more power. But they had holes in their swings and have been eaten alive by major league pitching.

[Betterread]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

The key word here is "If". The point Doug has made over and over again is that batters with Fransisco's profile do NOT "still make enough contact to be successful" once they get to the majors. Your premise is based on a flawed assumption.

The better pitchers of the major leagues eat guys like Fransisco for lunch. He won't hit .280 in the major leagues. Pitchers will throw better pitches for strikes, more attractive pitches for balls, and fewer mistakes that Fransisco can crush. He'll make less and weaker contact than he does now.

In terms of current production, I'll take a hit over a walk 10 times out of 10. But we're talking about how Fransisco's skills will translate in to major league production. And everything we know about that translation says that you can't strike out so much and walk so little and still be successful in the majors. Look at Brandon Wood. Look at Chris Davis. Those are just two examples of guys, who actually walked more than Fransisco, who made as much as contact and hit for more power. But they had holes in their swings and have been eaten alive by major league pitching.

No - the key word is "why". As in why does a hitter strike out too much and walk too little. Francisco's problem is that he is still learning to pick up breaking pitches and decide whether to swing or miss. To me, that is something he can potentiallly learn. You know why? Because Jay Bruce, for example, had the same problem. He struck out at a far higher rate than Francisco. But I didn't worry that much about it - because his swing is good. Francisco can hit ML fastballs, but he needs to work on ML breaking pitches. I am more worried about Frazier, because his swing is weird, and its starting to result in him not catching up to AAA pitches.
I am so tired of people just dropping statistics as logic. They are data, and you need to be able to analyze the data in the context of a specific player to try to draw conclusions. If you just say: "if this number exists, then that will be the result". That's just lazy reliance on data that someone else has determined has a general application.

[Orenda]

Originally Posted by Betterread

I am so tired of people just dropping statistics as logic. They are data, and you need to be able to analyze the data in the context of a specific player to try to draw conclusions. If you just say: "if this number exists, then that will be the result". That's just lazy reliance on data that someone else has determined has a general application.

Of course the counter argument is that some people are lazy in that they fail to look at what the numbers tell about a player's strengths and weaknesses. So instead they just claim that an AAA slugger will have just as much of a chance to become a successful ML player as another guy who might have a more disciplined approach. They are probably more prone to trust their eyes and their imaginations about what a player can be while failing to ever consider what the player is.

In regards to Francisco, I don't think people are just looking at his numbers and finding comparable players. They are looking at data that describes the game of baseball and more importantly what type of baseball player he is and has been in the past.

Juan Francisco is an aggressive free swinger, there is little evidence that suggests he has improved his plate discipline as a minor league player. These "numbers" people are simply stating that as is, Juan Francisco's offensive value will be based strongly on his slugging % and batting average and because of his aggressive approach they have doubts that he can sustain that production consistently when facing higher quality pitchers who not only have better stuff, but also have more access to better scouting reports.

Personally I don't consider myself a saber guy, not because I think that I can see the game so well that I don't need to look at numbers, but because I know that those "numbers" people have studied the topic more in depth than I so I wouldn't want to raise myself to their level without merit.

I will admit that I don't have much faith in JF as a prospect based mostly on his numbers; so the point you make about failing to watch him play substantially might be preventing me from realizing that he is an outlier, is a fair criticism.

However the most interesting aspect about Juan Francisco the prospect is that he highlights the growing philosophical divide between what type of baseball player is desired IMO. To be honest with you, I don't care if Juan Francisco is an outlier, as a fan I would rather see a team place a higher emphasis on identifying players who can provide consistent offensive value, guys who get on base, slug, and when all else fails drive up pitch counts. Hell, I'd be happy if the reds traded JF and he turned into an All-Star, as long as they got back smart baseball development people who understand that the numbers and scouting are not at odds with one another. As a fan, I'd have more faith in the latter producing consistent winners as opposed to an organization who routinely rolls the dice with outliers.

[mdccclxix]

I'm looking forward to seeing Francisco in Cincinnati again in September because Nix is having a pretty rough year at the plate.

Overall, I agree that Juan needs to fix his approach, that's why I'm hoping he adjusts well in AAA next year. I think he can have a Cruz type of peak at 25, 26 or 27 years old. Can we keep him that long?

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Betterread

No - the key word is "why". As in why does a hitter strike out too much and walk too little. Francisco's problem is that he is still learning to pick up breaking pitches and decide whether to swing or miss. To me, that is something he can potentiallly learn.

I agree 100%. If and when he develops that skill, my outlook on his future will adjust accordingly. But history has shown us that is a skill few players develop in AAA.

You know why? Because Jay Bruce, for example, had the same problem. He struck out at a far higher rate than Francisco. But I didn't worry that much about it - because his swing is good. Francisco can hit ML fastballs, but he needs to work on ML breaking pitches. I am more worried about Frazier, because his swing is weird, and its starting to result in him not catching up to AAA pitches.

Jay Bruce also walked TWICE as often as Fransisco. He was able to lay off those pitches that he couldn't hit -- because he could recognize them and had the discipline not to swing. Bruce is not a great contact hitter and has, on occasion, chased pitches out of the zone. But he was much, much better at this than Fransisco -- and he's still struggling with this on occasion in the majors.
Fransisco's problem is not just that he can't hit ML breaking pitches. It's that he either can't tell the difference between a breaking pitch and a fastball or he can and just can't stop himself from swinging at them anyways.

Bruce is not as good at making contact as Fransisco. But his ability to not swing at crap he can't hit has allowed him to transition to the majors. If Fransisco does not develop this ability, he'll simply be facing more stuff that he can't hit -- and will chase it.

I am so tired of people just dropping statistics as logic. They are data, and you need to be able to analyze the data in the context of a specific player to try to draw conclusions. If you just say: "if this number exists, then that will be the result". That's just lazy reliance on data that someone else has determined has a general application.

Nice strawman. I'm so tired of people assuming that because stats are used, scouting and other qualitative analytical methods are not being used as well. You either have an simplistic understanding of statistical analysis (presuming it is done in ignorance of context) or of Doug's analysis in this specific case. Doug has gone in to great detail here and on his blog, using both stats and scouting information to discuss Fransisco's future.

Why do you think all of the other guy's in Fransisco's comp group struggled to make it in the majors? Many of them, if not most of them, had the exact same problem Fransisco does. They couldn't stop themselves from swinging at stuff they couldn't hit, usually breaking pitches. Was it possible for them to adjust as you've suggested? Of course it was. Did they? By and large, no, they did not.

Guys with similar skill sets TEND to follow similar paths. Obviously Fransisco could develop a new skill. He could improve his ability to recognize pitches and/or lay off of the ones he can't hit. But history has shown us that that skill is not one that players typically develop in the major leagues. Players do, on occasion, improve this. But Fransisco has a ways to go. And if he does not develop that skill, the prognosis for his future is not good.

If Fransisco starts showing the ability to not chase stuff he can't hit, it will show up in an increased walk rate. When that happens, I promise you that Doug (and Cyclone and myself) will be at the front of the line saying Fransisco has a good career ahead of him. But history tells us not to get our hopes up not to try and predict that a guy will fundamentally change his demonstrated ability.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

If Fransisco starts showing the ability to not chase stuff he can't hit, it will show up in an increased walk rate. When that happens, I promise you that Doug (and Cyclone and myself) will be at the front of the line saying Fransisco has a good career ahead of him. But history tells us not to get our hopes up not to try and predict that a guy will fundamentally change his demonstrated ability.

At 23 years old, with tons of power, he has time to figure some things out at AAA. I'd be more concerned if he was rushed to MLB right now. I'm a bit optimistic.

[GIDP]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

At 23 years old, with tons of power, he has time to figure some things out at AAA. I'd be more concerned if he was rushed to MLB right now. I'm a bit optimistic.

Not to pile on the guy but he hasnt shown much improvement if any no matter the level.