Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by mth123

Thank you for the big game Paul and the nice play in a limited role in 2010. That said, Janish Minor league career suggests a .750 OPS is a pipe dream.

AA at age 24 in 327 ABs, - .695
AAA at age 24 in 200 ABs - .601
AAA at Age 25 in 318 Abs - .711

Not sure why we expect anything more than .650 to .675. Below .600 seems a real possibility.

Why is it okay to ignore everything prior to age 24? 5 minor league seasons, .733 ops total. But regardless of all that, he's a different player now in terms of strength and development. But since we're considering milb numbers, I'd expect a drop-off from the minors to the bigs. It's expected. But why are we going from a +.700 ops to a low .600 and below? Good lord. So, just for arguments sake, let's split the difference. Let's give him a .650 ops. It's STILL better than Cabrera's AND then we factor in his defense, his ability to work the count, and the effect his glove has on the pitching staff's numbers & workload.

Limited exposure is Paul's friend.

This theory is simply don't understand. It will HELP his bat to not get used? It will help keep him sharp to sit on the bench and only get work in the cage against the BP pitcher? I don't know of ANY hitter who doesn't need regular reps to keep sharp and improve. The only thing limited exposure helps are the stat guys who want to point to his small sample size as a reason he can't improve based on his past performance...however limited.

As for the defense, the legend may be more than the performance. A fan base that hasn't seen a good defender at SS in a decade may be seeing what it wants to see. I also think that there is a tendency for the media to accentuate the positive. When a kid can't hit much, his average defense becomes plus and above average defense somehow morphs into super when he's being publicly decscribed. At least he has the defense to morph and we aren't hearing about his scrapiness and hustle.

Well, I for one don't buy this...but let's say I do for a moment. Even if his glove ISN'T as good as I think it is....it's still better than Cabrera's. Wouldn't you agree with that limited statement? Janish is a better defender at short than Orlando. If so, and he's hitting better....you do the math.

[remdog]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

5 minor league seasons....733 ops. And he's now stronger and showing more power. Same plate discipline. Current ops...866. He not only "can", he IS.

If it were that simple he would have done it years ago. More likely it's the usual small sample size/hot streak/luck.

And, frankly, I'm not as enamored with Janish's glove as some on here. It's good, not great.

He's what we've got for now. I think that there's a good chance that that will change by Opening Day 2011.

Rem

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

There is only one way to find out, here is his opportunity. I said long ago that I thought he could fashion himself into a good enough hitter because he has good plate discipline, good selectivity, good contact skills and flat understands what he needs to do in any given PA. However I started changing my tune when I saw his incredible lack of strength, this was after he had improved it. Has he improved it more? Perhaps but I am not gonna believe it until I see it over a good stretch.

Same situation as last season. We put him to sleep for MONTHS, and then say to him "here's a month or two to show us what you've got". I hope he does well, but a player needs more than a month to prove his worth. A week long slump or a run against good pitchers and he'll be a bust to some because he didn't "grab his opportunity" when it was presented to him.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by mth123

He didn't approach that at the higher levels. His A Ball numbers at age 23 skew the totals. Using overall minor league numbers is about the easiest way tp distort things or at least see what you want to see. That .733 for 5 seasons is about as valid as the phases of the moon or the way he wears his socks.

AA he was basically a .700 ops.

Went up to AAA and regressed as you'd expect on going up a level.
Following season after he'd adapted to AAA, right back to .700 ops.

So why should we expect him to be a .600 ops bat in the majors? Because of his results in the bigs thus far? If Votto only got to come to the plate ten times a month with a week or two between appearances, he'd be a sucky hitter too.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Same situation as last season. We put him to sleep for MONTHS, and then say to him "here's a month or two to show us what you've got". I hope he does well, but a player needs more than a month to prove his worth. A week long slump or a run against good pitchers and he'll be a bust to some because he didn't "grab his opportunity" when it was presented to him.

While you may be right lets not assume you are, Paul knows he has limited opportunity to change peoples mind about him. Chances are he will get his chance next year as long as he shows improvement over what he did last season.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Why is it okay to ignore everything prior to age 24? 5 minor league seasons, .733 ops total. But regardless of all that, he's a different player now in terms of strength and development. But since we're considering milb numbers, I'd expect a drop-off from the minors to the bigs. It's expected. But why are we going from a +.700 ops to a low .600 and below? Good lord. So, just for arguments sake, let's split the difference. Let's give him a .650 ops. It's STILL better than Cabrera's AND then we factor in his defense, his ability to work the count, and the effect his glove has on the pitching staff's numbers & workload.



This theory is simply don't understand. It will HELP his bat to not get used? It will help keep him sharp to sit on the bench and only get work in the cage against the BP pitcher? I don't know of ANY hitter who doesn't need regular reps to keep sharp and improve. The only thing limited exposure helps are the stat guys who want to point to his small sample size as a reason he can't improve based on his past performance...however limited.



Well, I for one don't buy this...but let's say I do for a moment. Even if his glove ISN'T as good as I think it is....it's still better than Cabrera's. Wouldn't you agree with that limited statement? Janish is a better defender at short than Orlando. If so, and he's hitting better....you do the math.

Pretty much each level is just running the gauntlet to get to the next level. The Major leagues are so far removed from those lower levels, that they are nearly meaningless. If they were meaningful, he'd have carried it to AA and AAA. Why do we expect him to hit better as a major leaguer than he did at AA or AAA?

Janish is a good glove which IMO is a minimum requirement to play SS. He's not a weak defender by any means, but he's a SS, he's supposed to be good. There are a lot of SS who are just as good. He's better defensively than anyone who has been here since Larkin was in his prime, but he isn't so special that he makes plays nobody else would. Most of the plays he makes are ones most decent SS would make. The bums we've had here for 10 years have skewed our perspective and we think he's doing something exceptional when he really isn't.

[nate]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

5 minor league seasons....733 ops. And he's now stronger and showing more power. Same plate discipline. Current ops...866. He not only "can", he IS.

First of all, I prefer Janish _AT LEAST_ play more.

At the same time, yes...technically, he currently has that OPS but that's like saying Mike Leake is an .818 OPS bat. It's a TINY sample size and not indicative of true skill.

There is a point at which Janish's leather + wood = O-Cab's leather + wood. I couldn't say what that is but I would guess it's in the low .600 OPS range. I bet Jojo could tell us exactly what it is based on O-Cab's current offensive and defensive stats.

And I agree with Puffy. Even if he doesn't reach this .750 ops (and I have no clue why it's important for it to be that specific number), his glove MORE than validates a lower ops.

High five!

And I don't see it as a stretch to say that the lower ops will still be higher than Cabrera's.

Perhaps.

Taking the Cabrera injury out of the equation, I don't see a reason why it shouldn't be Orlando filling the role of back up infielder and veteran pinch hitter.

It's really a Dusty thing. I don't agree with it but that's how he rolls.

[VR]

Kudos Sir Charles for a nicely articulated post.

I think many would be surprised by the 'average' OpS for NL shortstops...espcially when you remove the two freaks, Ramirez and Furcal.

Rem...what don't you like about his glove? He's as smooth an SS I've seen out there. Decent range, excellent at starting or turning the DP, and a canon for an arm.

The DP he started a month or so ago has to be one of the top plays of the year......but he also makes the routine plays look, well, routine.

[westofyou]

Using the low minor numbers to boost a 24 year old can be a mistake of Jeff Jones proportion. The fact is the more advanced the pitching has gotten the lower Janish's numbers have gotten with regular playing time.

215 trips to the plate last year was enough for some, evidently a good game against the Pirates means more to some than others.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

While you may be right lets not assume you are, Paul knows he has limited opportunity to change peoples mind about him. Chances are he will get his chance next year as long as he shows improvement over what he did last season.

This is what worries me. He KNOWS this is his shot to grab the reins. If he presses.....

It just really bothers me that he wasn't given more opportunities earlier in the year when he obviously was still feeling in from spring training and his off season.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by mth123

Pretty much each level is just running the gauntlet to get to the next level. The Major leagues is so far removed from those lower levels, that they are nearly meaningless. If they were meaningful, he'd have carried it to AA and AAA. Why do we expect him to hit better as a mjor leaguer than he did at AA or AAA?

I don't expect him to hit better in the bigs. I never said he'd be a .750 ops guy. I just don't understand the thinking that he'd be a .600 or lower ops guy. Once he adapted to a level, he was basically .700...so the bigs he'd be a bit lower if he maintained his physical strength at that age. But he's IMPROVED that aspect. So instead of dropping to...say, .650 ops in MLB, it'd be more like .675 or even .700. But like I said, even that .650 is better than Cabrera (even without considering defense).

Janish is a good glove which IMO is a minimum requirement to play SS. He's not a weak defender by any means, but he's a SS, he's supposed to be good. There are a lot of SS who are just as good. He's better defensively than anyone who has been here since Larkin was in his prime, but he isn't so special that he makes plays nobody else would. Most of the plays he makes are ones most decent SS would make. The bums we've had here for 10 years have skewed our perspective and we think he's doing something exceptional when he really isn't.

The key is that he makes plays that CABRERA doesn't make. Hence, marked improvement. And that's if his glove is average as you basically describe it.

[westofyou]

I just don't understand the thinking that he'd be a .600 or lower ops guy.

Yeah it's a real head scratcher.

YEAR TEAM         AGE G    AB    R    H    2B  3B  HR   HR%   RBI  BB   SO   SB   CS  AVG   SLG  OBA   OPS
2008 Reds         25   38    80    5   15   2   0   1   1.25    6    7   18    0   0  .188  .250  .270  .520 
2009 Reds         26   90   256   36   54  21   0   1   0.39   16   26   40    2   0  .211  .305  .296  .601 
     TOTALS           128   336   41   69  23   0   2   0.60   22   33   58    2   0  .205  .292  .290  .582 
     LG AVERAGE             362   49   96  20   2  11   2.99   47   38   71    6   3  .266  .423  .339  .762 
     POS AVERAGE            360   49   96  18   3   7   1.96   38   31   55    9   3  .268  .393  .328  .721

[hebroncougar]

I think the consensus was the team offense wouldn't be good enough to carry a light bat at SS. The team offense has been good enough. Hopefully Janish can joing the party, I know I'm rooting for him. It would be nice to see him mash it these last 2 months, solidify himself and take care of a starting SS for next season.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Using the low minor numbers to boost a 24 year old can be a mistake of Jeff Jones proportion. The fact is the more advanced the pitching has gotten the lower Janish's numbers have gotten with regular playing time.

215 trips to the plate last year was enough for some, evidently a good game against the Pirates means more to some than others.

Fair point. But isn't that the case for most hitters? Monster numbers in the low minors and then falling back to earth against the better pitchers? (and no, I'm not saying Paul's numbers were "monster"-like in the low minors). And from what I see, they lowered to the tune of a .700 ops, regressed on the bump to AAA, then returned to the .700 ops again. The big drop to the low .600's was in the smaller sample size...not MORE playing time. Some guys (actually, most do IMO) need regular playing time to stay sharp. Janish seems to be one of them.

And I'm looking at more than today's game. I'm going back to the beginning of last year as the start of his improvement.

[nate]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Using the low minor numbers to boost a 24 year old can be a mistake of Jeff Jones proportion. The fact is the more advanced the pitching has gotten the lower Janish's numbers have gotten with regular playing time.

215 trips to the plate last year was enough for some, evidently a good game against the Pirates means more to some than others.

I think, in fairness, those expressing support for Janish in this thread have been doing so long before today's exhibition.