MLBTR: The Reds' 2011 Rotation

[nate]

An article rehashing some of the points we've discussed here. Not a bad summary.

The Reds have an abundance of major league starters under team control in 2011. Mike Leake, Homer Bailey and Travis Wood are not yet arbitration-eligible and Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. All except Wood, a 2005 second-rounder, ranked among Baseball America's top 100 prospects before they became prominent major leaguers. That's an entire rotation's worth of former top prospects and they're all still cheap.

[LincolnparkRed]

Add Arroyo for wily vet presence then try to make Bailey your closer and you are set for next year pitching wise. Ondrusek, Bray, Masset, Rhodes (if he plays), Smith, and Fisher to round out the pen.

You still have Chapman waiting in the wings.

Think of any SS's you want for next year. Teams will be burning up the phones asking about pitching this winter

[BrooklynRedz]

Originally Posted by LincolnparkRed

Add Arroyo for wily vet presence then try to make Bailey your closer and you are set for next year pitching wise. Ondrusek, Bray, Masset, Rhodes (if he plays), Smith, and Fisher to round out the pen.

You still have Chapman waiting in the wings.

Think of any SS's you want for next year. Teams will be burning up the phones asking about pitching this winter

Replace Arroyo with Webb.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by BrooklynRedz

Replace Arroyo with Webb.

That's the second time I've seen you mention Brandon Webb and the Reds. Are you hearing something?

[bucksfan2]

I think Webb does make some sense. He is from this region, his former pitching coach is Bryan Price, and its a Jocketty type move.

I have a feeling that there will be a trade this off season involving one of the Reds younger pitchers. Don't know who but it seems to me the Reds have a glut of young pitching and some holes elsewhere.

[Johnny Footstool]

Brandon Webb, whose shoulder is held together with baling wire and duct tape? I'd rather not count on him, especially as a replacement for Arroyo's wily veteran presence.

[Kc61]

With the performance of Carpenter last night, it shows how important a true Number 1 stopper is in a pennant race.

Reds will have to decide whether to re-up on Arroyo or whether to go into the market for a free agent pitcher of even higher caliber.

With that Number 1 guy, the rest of the rotation would come from Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Chapman, Leake, Wood.

If the Reds are in a spending mode, they could exercise the Arroyo option AND get a free agent pitcher.

In any event, I'd expect Harang to be gone and possibly one of the younger pitchers if there are trades.

The bullpen also has great depth for next season with the good performances of Ondrusek, Smith, Bray added to the veterans Cordero, Rhodes (if he stays), Masset. There's also Fisher, Burton, and in a pinch Del Rosario and Herrera. And Valiquette is coming on.

And, looking at the pen, wouldn't be suprised if Chapman winds up there next year.

As someone correctly posted awhile back, the Reds have lots of pitching depth. What they need is a little height (i.e., a real Number one starter).

[BrooklynRedz]

No reason to think the Reds won't be chasing that No. 1 this winter considering their efforts to acquire Halladay last July and Lee most recently.

[dunner13]

If we let harang and arroyo both go we have to get a veteran starter at the top of the rotatation to replace them. If the royals decide to put grienke on the market this winter, which after his recent comments seems likely, I'm sure walt will go hard after him. Also I saw an article a week or two ago saying that the rays are likely to shop garza this winter. If we could get one of those two guys at the top of the rotation we would be set. I would keep webb as a plan B. I would love to have him but I you cant circle him in as #1 or even a #2 starter at this point.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by BrooklynRedz

No reason to think the Reds won't be chasing that No. 1 this winter considering their efforts to acquire Halladay last July and Lee most recently.

Lee will be available, doubt they make a strong bid for him. Not sure I'd want them to anyway. Signing an old Lee means losing a young guy or 3 in short order.

[LincolnparkRed]

Originally Posted by dunner13

If we let harang and arroyo both go we have to get a veteran starter at the top of the rotatation to replace them. If the royals decide to put grienke on the market this winter, which after his recent comments seems likely, I'm sure walt will go hard after him.

how much do you give up though?

[Puffy]

I wouldn't be surprised by a Leake (from Arizona) for Webb type deal over winter.

Webb, Cueto, Volquez, Wood and Chapman as rotation and Bailey to pen (and either Bailey or Masset becoming closer)

Also wouldn't be surprised if Arroyo is back and then Chapman and Wood duke it out for last rotation slot.

[dunner13]

Originally Posted by Puffy

I wouldn't be surprised by a Leake (from Arizona) for Webb type deal over winter.

Webb, Cueto, Volquez, Wood and Chapman as rotation and Bailey to pen (and either Bailey or Masset becoming closer)

Also wouldn't be surprised if Arroyo is back and then Chapman and Wood duke it out for last rotation slot.

Why would we trade for Webb when hes going to be a free agent after this year? Theres pretty much 0% chance the D'backs pick up his 8 million dollar option. And I certainly wouldnt trade Mike Leake for Webb at this point.

[RedsManRick]

I really, really hope Arroyo is let go at the end of the season. I'm very appreciate for what he's given the team over the last few years, but his results are simply way out of line with his performance (declining K/9, significant & unsustainable BABIP luck).

As a 4.50 ERA guy, which is a reasonable expectation of his performance moving forward, his salary is not insanely out of line. However, I do think it's a luxury we shouldn't pay for. We have a number of internal options who can give us that level of performance (or close to it) for cheap. Paying Arroyo $11M so that Matt Maloney can rot in AAA just doesn't make sense to me.

We already have 5 guys who have established the ability to be major league caliber starters:
Cueto
Wood
Volquez
Bailey
Leake

We also have a handful of guys who could be starters next, one with ace potential, most as back end guys:
Chapman
Maloney
LeCure
Owings
Fisher (if you ask me...he could/should be stretched out)

And a few guys who could be ready in late 2011:
Ben Jukich
Matt Klinker

Bottom line, this team doesn't lack for options. It does lack of upside. Getting from 78-80 to 86-88 wins is one thing. Getting from there to 92-94 is another. For once this team isn't desperate to fill out the back of its roster. While this is a good thing, it means we have a higher bar to clear when adding talent if we're going to add wins.

I don't think we get any better by spending $11M hoping Arroyo's run of good luck can continue. I find it very hard to believe that Arroyo has, over the past two years, developed an ability to limit hits on balls in play equal to that of Mariano Rivera, one of the greatest of all-time (literally) at doing this. He might be worth $11M in free agency to somebody, but I don't think he's $10.5M better than the guy who goes back to AAA or to the bullpen.

This team needs to spend it's money locking up and acquiring top level talent that it cannot acquire otherwise. That could mean signing a starter in FA who is better (even if more expensive) or more likely, trading for a starter like Ricky Nolasco, Matt Cain or Wandy Rodriguez who is getting expensive for their current team relative to their other needs. Even if the money isn't spent in the offseason, financial flexibility has serious value in trades come next summer.

[nate]

Well said, Rick. I agree, we don't need "depth" any more, we need "height."