Who is Redszone's #5 prospect?

[OnBaseMachine]

Prospect #1 - Aroldis Chapman, LHP
Prospect #2 - Devin Mesoraco, C
Prospect #3 - Yorman Rodriguez, CF
Prospect #4 - Yonder Alonso, 1B

[cinreds21]

Here is where it starts to get hard for me.

[dougdirt]

Billy Hamilton. Not too close IMO. Switch hitter who showed skills from both sides of the plate. Plus plus speed. Plus plus defense. The main concern is a lack of power at this point. I will take that concern for a middle infielder with the rest of his game and not think twice about it.

[medford]

I took Cozart, though I suspect that Hamilton will win. Cozart's apparent readiness wins out over Hamilton in my mind. Hamilton may have the higher upside, but Cozart is more of a sure thing to contribute in the majors to some degree, while Hamilton still have several levels where he could ultimately flame out. I've liked Cozart ever since I first saw him play for the dragons where the seemed to have a better idea of what to do at teh plate than the scouting reports indicated at the time, and ever since, he's done nothing to make me think my first hand view of him at that time was wrong.

Another thing that gives me pause, for all the Hamilton as the future at SS talk, he still played more than 4x the games at 2b this year as he did at SS this season. Yeah, I know he's got the athletic ability, and perhaps the billings SS was older and ready to move along quicker and the Reds figured they had time to figure out if Billy could handle it at SS for sure or not, but to me, if you're the SS of the future, I'd like to think there is no question which spot you're taking in the field every day. If you're not occuping short, then a red flag should pop up that the organizations may have questions if he can handle short full time in the majors.

[*BaseClogger*]

I still am not convinced Cozart's ceiling is high enough to make him a top prospect. His ceiling is essentially Juan Uribe, with a floor a notch below Cliff Pennington. I'll take the player with tremendous upside...

[mace]

Still have to go with Cozart in a tough, close call over Hamilton. Cozart has been described as a "safe" pick, but I think that's an underestimation of his game. For a few years now, he has been often described as the best defensive SS in the system, with some preferring Miguel Rojas. Janish has been included in that company. Add to that his 17 HR and 30 SB in AAA this year, and it's a pretty potent package.

I don't see where to find this, but if somebody could, I'd be interested to know where those 17 HR and 30 SB ranked this year among all minor-league shortstops.

With all that, I have to agree that Hamilton's sensational speed gives him a somewhat higher upside. But at this point, his chance of attaining that upside seems less likely (to me) than Cozart's chance of becoming an above-average major-league shortstop.

That said, I have absolutely no problem with the choice of Hamilton. He's tremendously compelling.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

I still am not convinced Cozart's ceiling is high enough to make him a top prospect. His ceiling is essentially Juan Uribe, with a floor a notch below Cliff Pennington. I'll take the player with tremendous upside...

And what is this kid Hamilton's upside? Honus Wagner? Derek Jeter?

I'm glad Hamilton is in the Reds' organization, he seems like a good prospect. But there's a tendency to take raw, athletic guys and assume they have tremendous upsides.

Hamilton is apparently not clearly a shortstop. He could wind up at second base. And so far he hasn't displayed power.

Cozart is clearly a shortstop, and he hit 17 homers this year. I wish his OBP was a bit higher, and I wouldn't rank him as high as fifth, but the Cozart fans certainly have a good argument.

I remember years ago when Janish didn't even make the RedsZone list. Lacked upside I guess.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

And what is this kid Hamilton's upside? Honus Wagner? Derek Jeter?

I'm glad Hamilton is in the Reds' organization, he seems like a good prospect. But there's a tendency to take raw, athletic guys and assume they have tremendous upsides.

Hamilton is apparently not clearly a shortstop. He could wind up at second base. And so far he hasn't displayed power.

Cozart is clearly a shortstop, and he hit 17 homers this year. I wish his OBP was a bit higher, and I wouldn't rank him as high as fifth, but the Cozart fans certainly have a good argument.

I remember years ago when Janish didn't even make the RedsZone list. Lacked upside I guess.

I can't tell you why the Reds aren't playing Hamilton at SS, but it surely isn't because he can't handle it. The guy is a wizard in the field.

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by mace

I don't see where to find this, but if somebody could, I'd be interested to know where those 17 HR and 30 SB ranked this year among all minor-league shortstops.

He also struckout 107 times and has a career .262 BA in the minors. Unless he can flash legit enough power in the majors to keep his isoP and isoD up, his OPS will toil in the .600s.

Originally Posted by mace

With all that, I have to agree that Hamilton's sensational speed gives him a somewhat higher upside. But at this point, his chance of attaining that upside seems less likely (to me) than Cozart's chance of becoming an above-average major-league shortstop.

The league-average shortstop in the NL hit .266/.325/.388 in 2010. He's gonna have to hit that to be above average. I just don't see how his offensive game inspires so much confidence here. Hamilton is nearly guaranteed to provide the same defensive/speed offering and he has a lot more upside...

[mace]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I can't tell you why the Reds aren't playing Hamilton at SS, but it surely isn't because he can't handle it. The guy is a wizard in the field.

Doug, I'm not challenging your statement there. I'd just like a little elaboration. We've seen the highlights and know that he can make the sensational play. But are his hands, arm and fundamentals good enough to make him a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop? Does he project to be that efficient and reliable?

[AWA85]

Cozart's obp and strikeouts scare me a little bit, I will take Hamilton with #5 spot.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

He also struckout 107 times and has a career .262 BA in the minors. Unless he can flash legit enough power in the majors to keep his isoP and isoD up, his OPS will toil in the .600s.



The league-average shortstop in the NL hit .266/.325/.388 in 2010. He's gonna have to hit that to be above average. I just don't see how his offensive game inspires so much confidence here. Hamilton is nearly guaranteed to provide the same defensive/speed offering and he has a lot more upside...

First off, nothing is guaranteed with a player at the Pioneer League level. Nothing.

Second, guys with power do tend to strike out more. It's easier to avoid strikeouts when you are a 2 homer player than a 17 homer player.

Again, I wouldn't rank Cozart this high either. And it's fun to hope great athletes become great ballplayers.

But let's give some credit for achievement at the high minors levels. We'll see how the Pioneer League people do when they get there.

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by Kc61

And what is this kid Hamilton's upside? Honus Wagner? Derek Jeter?

Jose Reyes
Jimmy Rollins

Originally Posted by Kc61

I'm glad Hamilton is in the Reds' organization, he seems like a good prospect. But there's a tendency to take raw, athletic guys and assume they have tremendous upsides.

I thought I was a numbers guy?

Originally Posted by Kc61

Hamilton is apparently not clearly a shortstop. He could wind up at second base. And so far he hasn't displayed power.

What Doug said about defense. Power? Check those guys I listed above and their minor league stats. It's far too early to come to any conclusions about the kid's power (I can call him a kid! I'm finally older than the prospects! I've always wanted to type that! Yippee!)

Originally Posted by Kc61

Cozart is clearly a shortstop, and he hit 17 homers this year. I wish his OBP was a bit higher, and I wouldn't rank him as high as fifth, but the Cozart fans certainly have a good argument.

...And he slugged .416 because his BA is too low (BaseClogger is backing BA everybody!).

Originally Posted by Kc61

I remember years ago when Janish didn't even make the RedsZone list. Lacked upside I guess.

I've always been a big Janish supporter and my posting history supports that...

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mace

Doug, I'm not challenging your statement there. I'd just like a little elaboration. We've seen the highlights and know that he can make the sensational play. But are his hands, arm and fundamentals good enough to make him a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop? Does he project to be that efficient and reliable?

Hamilton is incredibly sure handed and his arm is quite strong.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by AWA85

Cozart's obp and strikeouts scare me a little bit, I will take Hamilton with #5 spot.

107 strikeouts in 610 plate appearances scares you?