Carlos Pena Signs 1 Year Deal W/ Cubs - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

RedLegSuperStar · 12-08-2010, 04:59 AM

For 10 million

Ron Madden · 12-08-2010, 05:03 AM

Link?

never mind, I see it now.

mth123 · 12-08-2010, 05:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar

For 10 million

Wow. That's quite a bit more than I thought he'd get. Another Cubs overpay IMO.

Will M · 12-08-2010, 06:45 AM

1.0 WAR in 2010.

That is a terrible deal for the Cubs.

reds1869 · 12-08-2010, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Will M

1.0 WAR in 2010.

That is a terrible deal for the Cubs.

The best kind!

TRF · 12-08-2010, 09:45 AM

I'm a Pena fan. Have been since he was in the Rangers org. Watch him hit 40+ bombs in 2011, cux it is more than likely it will happen.

OesterPoster · 12-08-2010, 10:21 AM

I'm not a fan. He ditched Wright State's baseball team after a month or two when I was there in 1995.

RedsManRick · 12-08-2010, 10:26 AM

Wow. $10M? I can't believe any team would give a guy $10M coming off a full season south of the Mendoza line. I actually think he's a decent shot to give them fair value, but his low BABIP last year was in part due to a very low LD%. When I see a stikeout prone hitter in his 30's see a decline in BABIP, my gut says it's like a running back losing his legs -- he's not going to get it back.

The guy just wasn't making a ton of good contact. He's still got a lot of raw power, but while he sustained his K%, his ISO dropped by 100 points. Without having actually seen the guy play, my guess is that he's losing some bat speed and is compensating by cutting down on his swing. Consequently, he's able to sustain his (mediocre) contact rate at the expense of a good chunk of power.

That doesn't mean he's done per se', but I'd be surprised by an OPS north of .850.

UKFlounder · 12-08-2010, 10:42 AM

But it is just for 1 year and the Cubs are not hurting for money. It's similar to Oakland signing Ben Sheets to a similar deal despite his injuries, except the Cubs can probably afford it more than Oakland good.

I'm not saying it's a smart deal, but at least it's short-term so that might limit the damage it can do if last year was no abberation.

bucksfan2 · 12-08-2010, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Wow. $10M? I can't believe any team would give a guy $10M coming off a full season south of the Mendoza line. I actually think he's a decent shot to give them fair value, but his low BABIP last year was in part due to a very low LD%. When I see a stikeout prone hitter in his 30's see a decline in BABIP, my gut says it's like a running back losing his legs -- he's not going to get it back.

The guy just wasn't making a ton of good contact. He's still got a lot of raw power, but while he sustained his K%, his ISO dropped by 100 points. Without having actually seen the guy play, my guess is that he's losing some bat speed and is compensating by cutting down on his swing. Consequently, he's able to sustain his (mediocre) contact rate at the expense of a good chunk of power.

That doesn't mean he's done per se', but I'd be surprised by an OPS north of .850.

Don't quite know where you came up with fair value here. To be honest I can't really get behind a player who put up a historically bad season getting a 10M contract ten next season. I think Pena could be a good candidate for a bounce back season, but you pay top dollar for that.

In digesting this a little more I can see a couple non awful aspects about this trade. The cubs have money to burn for one and it's a one year contract. But you can't keep issueing bad contracts to the likes of Soriano, Fukadome, and now Pena.

PuffyPig · 12-08-2010, 10:26 PM

They should be grateful he didn't hit .200, or he would have cost $20M.

RedsManRick · 12-08-2010, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Don't quite know where you came up with fair value here. To be honest I can't really get behind a player who put up a historically bad season getting a 10M contract ten next season. I think Pena could be a good candidate for a bounce back season, but you pay top dollar for that.

In digesting this a little more I can see a couple non awful aspects about this trade. The cubs have money to burn for one and it's a one year contract. But you can't keep issueing bad contracts to the likes of Soriano, Fukadome, and now Pena.

Historically as in interesting, but not as in worst season ever. He still put up a .732 OPS -- not good by any stretch, but not historically bad.

$10M is worth between 2.0 and 2.5 wins above replacement (so far this year, the price has been around $5M/WAR. Prior to last season's debacle, he put up seasons of 6.2, 4.0, and 2.8 WAR. So yeah, a "fair value" season is a very distinct possibility.

Ron Madden · 12-10-2010, 03:48 AM

I've always liked Carlos Pena as a hitter. Batting Average never had anything to do with my process of thought.

I wish he would've went to another division.

GoReds · 12-10-2010, 08:20 AM

So, Joey's agent sees this contract and thinks...?

Mario-Rijo · 12-10-2010, 09:40 AM

I thought I heard half of it was deferred. I was watching MLB TV that morning and I thought that is where I heard it. Kind of odd if true.

12-08-2010, 04:59 AM	#1
RedLegSuperStar Greatness In The Making Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Cincinnati, Ohio Posts: 4,078	Carlos Pena Signs 1 Year Deal W/ Cubs For 10 million __________________ "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans 2008 Reds Record When I Attend: 9W - 5L 2009 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 2L 2010 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 0L 2011 Reds Record When I Attend: 0W - 1L

12-08-2010, 05:03 AM	#2
Ron Madden Member Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 5,815	Re: Carlos Pena Signs 1 Year Deal W/ Cubs Link? never mind, I see it now. Last edited by Ron Madden; 12-08-2010 at 05:08 AM.

12-08-2010, 06:45 AM	#4
Will M Brett William Moore Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Crescent Springs KY Posts: 3,511	Re: Carlos Pena Signs 1 Year Deal W/ Cubs 1.0 WAR in 2010. That is a terrible deal for the Cubs. __________________ .

12-08-2010, 09:45 AM	#6
TRF Vavasor Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: Amarillo, TX Posts: 12,676	Re: Carlos Pena Signs 1 Year Deal W/ Cubs I'm a Pena fan. Have been since he was in the Rangers org. Watch him hit 40+ bombs in 2011, cux it is more than likely it will happen. __________________ "don't end up with a grandson with a dog collar."

12-08-2010, 10:21 AM	#7
OesterPoster Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: West-central Ohio Posts: 1,911	Re: Carlos Pena Signs 1 Year Deal W/ Cubs I'm not a fan. He ditched Wright State's baseball team after a month or two when I was there in 1995.

12-08-2010, 10:26 AM	#8
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,917	Re: Carlos Pena Signs 1 Year Deal W/ Cubs Wow. $10M? I can't believe any team would give a guy $10M coming off a full season south of the Mendoza line. I actually think he's a decent shot to give them fair value, but his low BABIP last year was in part due to a very low LD%. When I see a stikeout prone hitter in his 30's see a decline in BABIP, my gut says it's like a running back losing his legs -- he's not going to get it back. The guy just wasn't making a ton of good contact. He's still got a lot of raw power, but while he sustained his K%, his ISO dropped by 100 points. Without having actually seen the guy play, my guess is that he's losing some bat speed and is compensating by cutting down on his swing. Consequently, he's able to sustain his (mediocre) contact rate at the expense of a good chunk of power. That doesn't mean he's done per se', but I'd be surprised by an OPS north of .850. __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance. Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-08-2010 at 10:35 AM.

12-08-2010, 10:42 AM	#9
UKFlounder Go Reds Go! Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Northern KY Posts: 1,824	Re: Carlos Pena Signs 1 Year Deal W/ Cubs But it is just for 1 year and the Cubs are not hurting for money. It's similar to Oakland signing Ben Sheets to a similar deal despite his injuries, except the Cubs can probably afford it more than Oakland good. I'm not saying it's a smart deal, but at least it's short-term so that might limit the damage it can do if last year was no abberation. __________________ http://www.civilwarobsession.com

12-08-2010, 10:26 PM	#11
PuffyPig Member Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 9,712	Re: Carlos Pena Signs 1 Year Deal W/ Cubs They should be grateful he didn't hit .200, or he would have cost $20M.

12-10-2010, 03:48 AM	#13
Ron Madden Member Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 5,815	Re: Carlos Pena Signs 1 Year Deal W/ Cubs I've always liked Carlos Pena as a hitter. Batting Average never had anything to do with my process of thought. I wish he would've went to another division. Last edited by Ron Madden; 12-10-2010 at 03:50 AM.

12-10-2010, 08:20 AM	#14
GoReds Cruisin' for trouble Join Date: May 2000 Location: Fredericksburg, VA Posts: 3,287	Re: Carlos Pena Signs 1 Year Deal W/ Cubs So, Joey's agent sees this contract and thinks...?

12-10-2010, 09:40 AM	#15
Mario-Rijo HOF CLASS OF '12 Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Springfield, Ohio Posts: 8,994	Re: Carlos Pena Signs 1 Year Deal W/ Cubs I thought I heard half of it was deferred. I was watching MLB TV that morning and I thought that is where I heard it. Kind of odd if true. __________________ 2008 Reds Draft Prospect RZ Scouting Reports 2009 Reds Draft Prospect RZ Scouting Reports 2010 Reds Draft Prospect RZ Scouting Reports "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one." --Woody Hayes

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