Prospect #23 run-off vote

[OnBaseMachine]

Drew Cisco, Danny Dorn, or Kris Negron?

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Isn't Dorn 26 or 27?

And he was left unprotected and still didn't get taken in the Rule V.

[JayBruceFan]

Drew Cisco

He has the most upside of the 3

[mth123]

Negron.

I am perplexed by Dorn. He has the track record and the Reds have the need for him, yet he gets no sniff of the 40 man and other teams seem to have no interest. At this point the assessment of MLB seems to be that he simply has no big league potential and that whatever success he's had in AAA just won't translate to the majors. As a supporter of Dorn, I think we'll have to accept that evidnece points to him being a minor league journeyman through his career. Even if some supporters think everybody in the majors is missing the boat, it seems that Dorn won't get the chance, has no value in trade and at this point should be viewed as an organizational player rather than a prospect IMO.

Negron, OTOH, seems to be the opposite. His slills and track rercord are a bit borderline as prospects go, but he seems to be a guy that has major league potential in the MI and may be able to carry his strengths into the big leagues. I could see Negron having a career along the lines of somebody like Craig Counsell. Nothing spectacular but a lot of years of pretty darned useful all around the IF. Not bad at #23. If Negron was a lefty bat he may be viewed even more favorably. The Reds putting him on the 40 man would seem to be some acknowledgement that he has the major league potential that Dorn seems to lack.

Cisco may end up the best of the three, but he just is too new to the scene and wasn't really a top of the draft kid but more a guy emerging from the pack, so its hard to rate him until we see a track record into full season ball IMO.

[Scrap Irony]

Agreed, mth. Negron, as of now. He's got okay numbers at a tough position and he hit really well in the AFL. (Which means little, but that's better than not, I suppose.)

[HokieRed]

I like Dorn and cannot understand why he's been overlooked in the Rule 5 draft, but Negron by virtue of position.

[mace]

I just don't see anything in Dorn's history that would suggest he can't hit major-league righthanders at a decent and perhaps above-average clip. That hint of above-average gives him a slight nod, in my estimation. Very slight.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by mace

I just don't see anything in Dorn's history that would suggest he can't hit major-league righthanders at a decent and perhaps above-average clip. That hint of above-average gives him a slight nod, in my estimation. Very slight.

I see two huge things that make Dorn an organizational player.

1. His own organization passed two years in a row when it came time to add him to the 40 man roster.
2. Every other Baseball team passed two years in a row on the chance to get him for Rule 5 prices.

You may be right about his ability to mash RHP (I've always thought so too), but the experts seem to have reached a consensus that he isn't a major leaguer. He won't get the chance to mash, even if he can, so that makes him a non-prospect. If he emerges down the road, that's great, but for now, he's not worthy of a spot on a prospect list.

[HokieRed]

Originally Posted by mth123

I see two huge things that make Dorn an organizational player.

1. His own organization passed two years in a row when it came time to add him to the 40 man roster.
2. Every other Baseball team passed two years in a row on the chance to get him for Rule 5 prices.

You may be right about his ability to mash RHP (I've always thought so too), but the experts seem to have reached a consensus that he isn't a major leaguer. He won't get the chance to mash, even if he can, so that makes him a non-prospect. If he emerges down the road, that's great, but for now, he's not worthy of a spot on a prospect list.

I've asked about this on the board but never gotten an answer. Has anybody seen Dorn hit enough to know what the rap is; he has to have gotten some bad label from the scouts.

[Edd Roush]

I went with Dorn because I couldn't get over how well he hit last year in AAA, but I can definitely see the argument for positional value and perception by the Reds and the rest of the league. Tough choice, which is probably why it ended up in a run-off.

[Betterread]

Drew Cisco was ranked as consensus top 50 HS propsect for this years draft and was projected to be drafted in the top 5 rounds.
His command and location are special - tops in this year's pitching class.
The questions about him (outside of the injury risk inherent for all young pitchers) are his projectability and his stuff (his fastball is ML average for velocity right now and grades up for its movement and his ability to locate it).
His floor is Jeff Suppan. That's good enough for him to be ranked this high in this system.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Betterread

Drew Cisco was ranked as consensus top 50 HS propsect for this years draft and was projected to be drafted in the top 5 rounds.
His command and location are special - tops in this year's pitching class.
The questions about him (outside of the injury risk inherent for all young pitchers) are his projectability and his stuff (his fastball is ML average for velocity right now and grades up for its movement and his ability to locate it).
His floor is Jeff Suppan. That's good enough for him to be ranked this high in this system.

His floor is flaming out in the minor leagues. The kid hasn't thrown a pro pitch yet to someone not in the Reds organization.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

His floor is flaming out in the minor leagues. The kid hasn't thrown a pro pitch yet to someone not in the Reds organization.

I'm not sure what you're getting at here. I know he signed at the deadline and it doesn't appear that he pitched competitively last season, but why would that have his floor "flaming out"? Was there a reason other than timing that he didn't join a squad that would do that?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

I'm not sure what you're getting at here. I know he signed at the deadline and it doesn't appear that he pitched competitively last season, but why would that have his floor "flaming out"? Was there a reason other than timing that he didn't join a squad that would do that?

It isn't that he didn't pitch that makes his floor that, its that you listed his floor as a major leaguer, but that simply isn't true at all. His floor, is that he doesn't cut it in the minor leagues at all. As he progresses forward, his floor continues to get higher, because he has then done it. But until he actually does something, his floor remains at the level where he is at today. Right now, that is a guy who hasn't made it out of rookie ball.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

It isn't that he didn't pitch that makes his floor that, its that you listed his floor as a major leaguer, but that simply isn't true at all. His floor, is that he doesn't cut it in the minor leagues at all. As he progresses forward, his floor continues to get higher, because he has then done it. But until he actually does something, his floor remains at the level where he is at today. Right now, that is a guy who hasn't made it out of rookie ball.

Thanks for the clarification, although it wasn't me that stated a floor. But if I'm understanding you correctly, you're saying that one can't project a floor until you have some track record in competition at some level or another.