Stubbs/Phillips in 2011

[lonewolf371]

So where do you see the two in 2011? Neither one is particularly comfortable at leadoff. Personally, I'm intrigued by the thought of Stubbs batting 6th and seeing what he can do with guys on base a little more, plus stealing bases for the guys at 7 and 8. Phillips would probably be best at #2.

It's a shame there's no perfect leadoff guy on the team. Maybe Dusty will try leadoff by committee based on matchups (although I don't have any idea how that would work).

[Quatitos]

Originally Posted by lonewolf371

So where do you see the two in 2011? Neither one is particularly comfortable at leadoff. Personally, I'm intrigued by the thought of Stubbs batting 6th and seeing what he can do with guys on base a little more, plus stealing bases for the guys at 7 and 8. Phillips would probably be best at #2.

It's a shame there's no perfect leadoff guy on the team. Maybe Dusty will try leadoff by committee based on matchups (although I don't have any idea how that would work).

I did like Phillips a lot in the #2 spot last year, it is probably the spot he is most naturally suited for. Plus hopefully whoever is in front of him is fast so there is less double plays to ground into .

As for leadoff, if Stubbs can just up his batting average and keep his walk rate he will be in a good position to be an outstanding leadoff hitter. If you look at his overall splits for the season he didn't do too bad in the leadoff spot. But you might remember your eyes telling you that he absolutely stunk it up in the beginning of the season and then did a really good job the second chance he got later in the season.

Splits for Stubbs last season based on batting order:

Split          G GS  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Batting 1st   34 32 148 127 27 28  6  2  3   8 13  2 19 41 .220 .324 .370 .694  47   0   1  0  1   0   0  .298    82    95
Batting 2nd    4  4  18  15  4  6  1  0  0   3  2  0  2  6 .400 .444 .467 .911   7   0   0  0  1   0   0  .600   140   150
Batting 3rd    1  0   4   4  0  1  1  0  0   0  0  0  0  2 .250 .250 .500 .750   2   0   0  0  0   0   0  .500    89    78
Batting 4th    1  0   1   1  0  0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0  1 .000 .000 .000 .000   0   0   0  0  0   0         0  -100  -100
Batting 5th    2  0   2   2  0  0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0  1 .000 .000 .000 .000   0   0   0  0  0   0   0  .000  -100  -100
Batting 6th    9  8  35  32  5  7  0  0  4  10  2  1  3 14 .219 .286 .594 .879  19   0   0  0  0   1   0  .214   121   130
Batting 7th   84 83 337 299 52 80 11  4 12  51  9  2 27 95 .268 .332 .452 .784 135   6   4  3  4   1   5  .347   103   124
Batting 8th    4  4  19  18  3  4  0  0  3   5  0  0  1  3 .222 .263 .722 .985  13   0   0  0  0   0   0  .083   143   179
Batting 9th   11  4  19  16  0  5  0  0  0   0  4  1  3  5 .313 .421 .313 .734   5   0   0  0  0   0   0  .455    98   168

And I did some calculations based on his game logs for the two "halves" to his leadoff season:

		PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
First Half	95	83	13	12	2	1	2	6	11	29	7	1	0.145	0.242	0.325	0.567
Second Half	53	44	14	16	4	1	1	2	8	12	6	1	0.364	0.472	0.705	1.157

The first half consists of games that he batted in the #1 position in the order from April 7th to May 5th and the second half consists of games from August 29th to October 2nd.

I think early on Stubbs might have been feeling the pressure too much being THE guy in the leadoff spot and the move down to 7th let him build up his confidence, and by the end of the year he was much more comfortable in it and was able to put up some really good numbers in the leadoff spot. Now I don't think we can expect him to maintain a .470 OBP over a year but I think a .270/.350/.450 line wouldn't be too far outside of the realm of possibility considering that from May 7th to the end of the season (so about 2/3 of the year excluding most of his early slump) Stubbs' line was .273/.343/.479.

[davereds24]

I'd like to see Stubbs in the 2 hole, and BP in the 6 or 7 hole.

If there isn't a move made for a leadoff hitter I'd rather have BP there.

[lonewolf371]

Originally Posted by Quatitos

I did like Phillips a lot in the #2 spot last year, it is probably the spot he is most naturally suited for. Plus hopefully whoever is in front of him is fast so there is less double plays to ground into .

As for leadoff, if Stubbs can just up his batting average and keep his walk rate he will be in a good position to be an outstanding leadoff hitter. If you look at his overall splits for the season he didn't do too bad in the leadoff spot. But you might remember your eyes telling you that he absolutely stunk it up in the beginning of the season and then did a really good job the second chance he got later in the season.

Splits for Stubbs last season based on batting order:

Split          G GS  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Batting 1st   34 32 148 127 27 28  6  2  3   8 13  2 19 41 .220 .324 .370 .694  47   0   1  0  1   0   0  .298    82    95
Batting 2nd    4  4  18  15  4  6  1  0  0   3  2  0  2  6 .400 .444 .467 .911   7   0   0  0  1   0   0  .600   140   150
Batting 3rd    1  0   4   4  0  1  1  0  0   0  0  0  0  2 .250 .250 .500 .750   2   0   0  0  0   0   0  .500    89    78
Batting 4th    1  0   1   1  0  0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0  1 .000 .000 .000 .000   0   0   0  0  0   0         0  -100  -100
Batting 5th    2  0   2   2  0  0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0  1 .000 .000 .000 .000   0   0   0  0  0   0   0  .000  -100  -100
Batting 6th    9  8  35  32  5  7  0  0  4  10  2  1  3 14 .219 .286 .594 .879  19   0   0  0  0   1   0  .214   121   130
Batting 7th   84 83 337 299 52 80 11  4 12  51  9  2 27 95 .268 .332 .452 .784 135   6   4  3  4   1   5  .347   103   124
Batting 8th    4  4  19  18  3  4  0  0  3   5  0  0  1  3 .222 .263 .722 .985  13   0   0  0  0   0   0  .083   143   179
Batting 9th   11  4  19  16  0  5  0  0  0   0  4  1  3  5 .313 .421 .313 .734   5   0   0  0  0   0   0  .455    98   168

And I did some calculations based on his game logs for the two "halves" to his leadoff season:

		PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
First Half	95	83	13	12	2	1	2	6	11	29	7	1	0.145	0.242	0.325	0.567
Second Half	53	44	14	16	4	1	1	2	8	12	6	1	0.364	0.472	0.705	1.157

The first half consists of games that he batted in the #1 position in the order from April 7th to May 5th and the second half consists of games from August 29th to October 2nd.

I think early on Stubbs might have been feeling the pressure too much being THE guy in the leadoff spot and the move down to 7th let him build up his confidence, and by the end of the year he was much more comfortable in it and was able to put up some really good numbers in the leadoff spot. Now I don't think we can expect him to maintain a .470 OBP over a year but I think a .270/.350/.450 line wouldn't be too far outside of the realm of possibility considering that from May 7th to the end of the season (so about 2/3 of the year excluding most of his early slump) Stubbs' line was .273/.343/.479.

Wow, that's very interesting. Maybe Stubbs should be the guy. However, as someone on the ORG said, you usually don't like to see a guy that can smack 20 HRs a year doing so with no one on base for him.

[Vottomatic]

Now that both the Brewers and Cardinals have upgraded, I expect Phillips to be traded near the deadline with the Reds in 3rd or 4th place.

[Hondo]

Phillips hit .251 in the Lead Off Spot and .306 in the 2 hole last year.

I will take him in the 2 hole, he bats 50 points higher.

Stubbs belongs in the 6 hole to drive in runs behind the Votto/Rolen/Bruce 3-4-5

[Quatitos]

If no major changes are made to the starting position players, you won't see any room for Stubbs in the number 6 spot.

Right now Janish is probably slotted in for the 8th slot, and the catching tandem will find itself in the 7th spot, and Gomes in the 6. I think we can all agree that we want those three near the back of the order but still give Gomes a shot for rbis because even during slumps, he does well with runners on. The duo of Bruce and Rolen will find themselves in 4 and 5. Votto is good in the 3rd spot, so the 1st and 2nd spot will fall between Stubbs and Phillips unless one of them shows they can't handle it.

As for wasting Stubbs homerun power in the leadoff spot, its not ideal but we have enough good power hitters in the heart of the order and between Janish, Hannigan, and Hernandez their collective OBP will give Stubbs some chances to clear the bases of more than just himself. Also I would wonder what the record is for teams when they get a leadoff homerun .