Late night thoughts.. Give me your best scenario for the bullpen next year.

[Cedric]

Who you got? Obviously Cordero is going to be back there with Chapman, Bray, and Masset as locks. Ondrusek, Burton, LeCure, or Maloney for the middle relief and long relief roles? I'm assuming Jocketty keeps 7 bp arms.

I'm hoping that Arredondo gets work in and can help at some point. I'm honestly not expecting much from Ondrusek or Smith. There isn't anything more volatile in baseball than relief pitching and those guys don't miss near enough bats to be counted on, IMO.

I think the bullpen could be a serious strength if Chapman, Masset, and Bray continue developing and stay healthy. Getting depth and innings out of actual talented arms like Maloney and Burton could be huge in long relief spots.

[corkedbat]

I'd love to see Willis thrive.

[mth123]

Cordero, Chapman, Masset, Arredondo, Burton, Bray, with Lecure or Ondrusek as the long reliever/mop-up man. The Reds could make a spring deal by trading a relief arm or two. Willis could force his way in and I still like Carlos Fisher and right now he has no chance at a spot IMO. I think Burton at $750K and Arredondo at $1 Million, might be guys they look to move. I doubt the Reds will want to pay them that and stash them at AAA if somebody like Willis forces his way in front of them.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by mth123

Cordero, Chapman, Masset, Arredondo, Burton, Bray, with Lecure or Ondrusek as the long reliever/mop-up man. The Reds could make a spring deal by trading a relief arm or two. Willis could force his way in and I still like Carlos Fisher and right now he has no chance at a spot IMO. I think Burton at $750K and Arredondo at $1 Million, might be guys they look to move. I doubt the Reds will want to pay them that and stash them at AAA if somebody like Willis forces his way in front of them.

I think it's also possible that guys who have also been starters in the minors (and at the major league level too), such as Maloney & LeCure, may have more value on the trade market than in being in our pen. Some club or another may want a fifth starter type or a swing man that they'll pay something, even some decent (not great) prospects, to acquire. Some of this may shake out that way before the season starts.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

I think it's also possible that guys who have also been starters in the minors (and at the major league level too), such as Maloney & LeCure, may have more value on the trade market than in being in our pen. Some club or another may want a fifth starter type or a swing man that they'll pay something, even some decent (not great) prospects, to acquire. Some of this may shake out that way before the season starts.

I'd rather have guys like Maloney and Lecure stashed at AAA for potential needed depth than traded for decent (not grest) prospects.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by Cedric

Who you got? Obviously Cordero is going to be back there with Chapman, Bray, and Masset as locks. Ondrusek, Burton, LeCure, or Maloney for the middle relief and long relief roles? I'm assuming Jocketty keeps 7 bp arms.

It continues to bother me that the Reds see fit to waste a 100+ MPH LHP as set up guy. At least give the guy a full year shot in AAA to see if he can be an effective starter before you cut his value off at the knees.

Heck, I don't even think the Reds NEED Chapman out there -- with Masset in the 8th and Ondrusek in the 7th, I think they've got the back end of things locked up nicely without him.

[kbrake]

Cordero, Masset, Chapman, Ondrusek, Bray, Burton, Bailey if he doesn't make the rotation. Willis if Bailey does make the rotation.

[lollipopcurve]

Very surprised that most folks seem to think Burton will be there. Assuming no trades and no ST meltdowns, I'd like to see:

Cordero
Masset
Chapman
Ondrusek
Bray
Arredondo
Willis

I'd rather see Lecure and Leake starting in AAA than logging long relief innings. Having Willis on my list assumes he's throwing strikes. I don't want him trying to figure it in the majors. If he goes to AAA, give me Maloney. He had some experience in relief last year and did OK.

[1990REDS]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

It continues to bother me that the Reds see fit to waste a 100+ MPH LHP as set up guy. At least give the guy a full year shot in AAA to see if he can be an effective starter before you cut his value off at the knees.

Heck, I don't even think the Reds NEED Chapman out there -- with Masset in the 8th and Ondrusek in the 7th, I think they've got the back end of things locked up nicely without him.

I agree. Lets give him a FULL year starting at AAA, get his IP up a little bit. Maybe develop a 3 and 4 pitch and see where hes at for next year.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

It continues to bother me that the Reds see fit to waste a 100+ MPH LHP as set up guy. At least give the guy a full year shot in AAA to see if he can be an effective starter before you cut his value off at the knees.

Heck, I don't even think the Reds NEED Chapman out there -- with Masset in the 8th and Ondrusek in the 7th, I think they've got the back end of things locked up nicely without him.

One of the trade-offs of having a successful team, you end up looking more at the bird in the hand at the major league level than the two in the bush in the minors. I think it is a tough decision and wouldn't disagree with either plan, but I wouldn't complain if Cincy thrives with Aroldis back there. And don't forget...Cordero could easily flop in April, leaving the bullpen with a gaping wound. Maybe he is the reason why Chapman will be in the bullpen this season.

Remember, Texas has done something similar with their Chapman.

[Scrap Irony]

Cordero-- Closer
Massett-- Set-Up
Arredondo-- Set-Up
Bray-- LOOGY
Willis-- LOOGY
Ondrusek-- Long/ Middle relief
Chapman-- Long/ Middle relief

Chapman makes this 'pen truly special. He can come in at any time in the game and completely alter the complexion of it. He'll get innings while learning how to get major league hitters out and working on his third pitch (which was a real plus pitch early in Spring Training and Louisville, remember. It's not as if he can't throw the change; it's that he needs to continue to "feel" it.) He could vey well garner 120-140 IP this season while still being babied a bit. He could also very well match the numbers of any starting pitcher on the roster in terms of K rate, WHIP, and ERA, while affecting 30-40 more games in the season.

This use of Chapman would mean everyone else in the pen has a specific spot that wouldn't change. Ondrusek would pitch on days that Chapman couldn't and as a middle reliever for the sixth and seventh innings.

If you needed a LOOGY, you'd have two to choose from, Bray and Willis. Bray could pitch innings rather than batters, but wouldn't be needed to. Willis, IMO, is pretty much only going to be a LOOGY until he finds a consistent release point.

Arredondo and Masset make up the set-up crew. Both have exceptional arms and pedigrees good enough to close, should Cordero get dealt or really struggle. (Neither would be used in place of Chapman, however, if the starter goes seven or eight innings.)

Cordero is the worst reliever in this particular 'pen (aside from perhaps Willis). That actually makes sense as to his closer role, IMO, as he's going to consistently come in with no one on base and only three outs to get.

Leake and Maloney go to AAA and are brought up as starting depth. LeCure is the third starter in AAA, but could swing to the 'pen in the majors as needed. (And be a decent option as a middle reliever.) Add in long range depth like Smith, Burton, Fisher, Herrera, Joseph, Kllinker, Horst, and Valiquette, and the Reds could very well have two solid to above average major league bullpens.

It'd be a great idea, IMO, to deal a few of these guys for either some major league help or lower level prospects. (My favorite dream scenario is some combination of pitching depth and Gomes or Heisy prying Alex Gordon away from Kansas City.) Apparently, however, they have little trade value.

[dfs]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Very surprised that most folks seem to think Burton will be there.

I think Burton is as likely to be successful this year as Bray is.

That's not really meant as praise for either player, just commentary.

[lollipopcurve]

I think Burton is as likely to be successful this year as Bray is.

That's not really meant as praise for either player, just commentary.

They have different roles. Bray is clearly the #2 lefty out of the pen, making it highly likely he makes the team. What has surprised me is that folks are putting Burton ahead of several other RHs -- guys like Ondrusek, Smih, Lecure, Arredondo -- most of whom were ahead of him last year.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

They have different roles. Bray is clearly the #2 lefty out of the pen, making it highly likely he makes the team. What has surprised me is that folks are putting Burton ahead of several other RHs -- guys like Ondrusek, Smih, Lecure, Arredondo -- most of whom were ahead of him last year.

It's no surprise to me at all, personally. Unless he's cut in spring training, Burton's contract is guaranteed, and he has a much longer history of success, relatively speaking, than the rest of those guys.

[lollipopcurve]

he has a much longer history of success, relatively speaking, than the rest of those guys.

Burton has not shown any sustained success in years.