25 Man prediction thread

[cinreds21]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I have a hunch Sappelt will force this issue. He may not start (just my wishful thinking if he is now what he has shown as of late) but I think he has a pretty good shot of beating out Heisey at this point. Heisey simply hasn't addressed his issues at the plate and until he does he will be lucky to hit much in S/T.

I don't think they'd have Sapp break and sit on the bench. He's not on the 40 and you're already going to have to make room on it if Willis breaks and if Hermida breaks (doubt he will)

Here's how I see it

Hernandez,
Votto
Phillips
Rolen
Janish
Gomes
Stubbs
Bruce

Cairo
Hanigan
Renteria
Lewis
Heisey

Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Wood
Bailey

Arredono
Burton
Ondrusek
Bray
Masset
Chapman
Cordero


The only thing I think could change is if Bray starts to struggle and Willis continues to shine. Actually, I'd prefer Willis over Bray but I doubt that happens unless something drastically occurs.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I know this will be met with some thoughts of it being too early but frankly I like to gauge gut reaction in a small sample size, I think it's usually pretty telling. Who makes the opening day 25 man roster? I'll present mine as a lineup/bench/rotation order/pen order prediction as well. Obviously this is health permitting though some guys (Arredondo) you might decide is likely to not make it right away due to where he is in his recovery process.

LF - Dave Sappelt
2B - Brandon Phillips
1B - Joey Votto (LH)
3B - Scott Rolen
RF - Jay Bruce (LH)
CF - Drew Stubbs
C - Ramon Hernandez
SS - Paul Janish

C - Hanigan
MIF - Renteria
CIF - Cairo
CIF - Juan Francisco (LH)
OF - Fred Lewis (LH)
OF - Jonny Gomes

Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Wood (LH)
Bailey

Cordero - CL
Masset - SU
Chapman - SU (LH)
Burton - MR
Bray - MR (LH)
Ondrusek - MR


I think they go with an extra bat early this time around, just a hunch. And I think Sappelt and Lewis beat out Heisey as a reserve OF. I think once Arredondo is ready you'll see Francisco go back to AAA unless there are injuries or Cairo is sent packing if he isn't performing.

I like your roster better than the one I think will happen. I like Francisco as a lefty power bat and caddy for Rolen (and Votto) way better than Cairo. I also like Heisey going back to AAA. Heisey actually has a chance to be a decent player in a Cody Ross kind of way IMO. His AAA time was cut short last year and if I had to choose who to keep on the bench and who to play every day at AAA, I'd probably rather have Heisey playing every day instead of most of the other guys who people want to leave in AAA to get PAs. Not sure Sappelt makes the team though. He needs the PAs in AAA as well. I still hope they'll pick somebody up who relegates both Gomes and Lewis to the bench. They'll have some pen arms to spare. I'm also starting to think that they'll leave Arredondo on the DL to start the year and give him a rehab stint for the first 15 days or so.

C (2) - Hernandez, Hanigan
IF (6) - Votto, Phillips, Janish, Renteria, Rolen, Cairo (prefer Francisco, but they won't sign a guy to a two year deal and cut him before the season starts no matter how cheap he is).
OF (5) - Lewis, Gomes, Bruce, Stubbs, Acquisition
P (12) - Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Willis, Ondrusek, Bray, Burton, Masset, Chapman, Cordero

[cinreds21]

If Arredondo is healthy, why not just option him to Triple-A? I believe he has options left.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by cinreds21

If Arredondo is healthy, why not just option him to Triple-A? I believe he has options left.

If he is healthy he should probably be on the roster, he is probably among the 3 maybe 4 most talented BP arms we have (Chapman, Masset, Jose & CoCo). I was just suggesting that the team could prefer to make sure he is healthy by not throwing him into the fire right away.

[reds44]

It seems pretty obvious (to me at least) that Willis is going to make the team. If Sappelt had a realistic shot of making the team out of spring training, he'd make it too. Sadly I don't think he did and therefor he won't. It also seems pretty obvious that Homer is going to be handed a spot in the rotation because he's out of options. I'm not saying he won't earn it, but it really doesn't matter if he does or not. It also seems like it'll be Wood as the 5th start.

Therefor:
Hernandez
Hanigan

Votto

Phillips
Cairo

Janish
Renteria

Rolen

Gomes
Stubbs
Bruce
Heisey
Lewis

Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Bailey
Wood

Cordero
Masset
Chapman
Bray
Willis
Ondrusek
Burton/Arredondo/Smith

[Scrap Irony]

Sappelt won't make it, but he's sure opened some eyes for either later this year or for next season. If Gomes struggles in a full-time role (likely) and Baker can't find an effective leadoff hitter, I could see a three-headed monster of Lewis, Heisey, Sappelt, and Gomes trading off LF for the rest of 2011, then move into 2012 with Sappelt and Lewis platooning (though not straight up) and hitting in the top spot of the order.

[WVRedsFan]

Walt's comments on the TV boradcast seem to indicate Sappelt will be in Louisville when it woefully obvious that he's a better option than even Heisey. No matter, that's baseball. I really believe that Homer will be in the rotation and Willis will be in the bullpen. And I'll predict that Renteria will be the regular shortstop before May. That said, watch for lots of movement between Louisville and Cincinnati. So much talent is available. that can't be a bad thing.

[edabbs44]

Re:Sappelt, are we really saying these things because of 20 pre St. Patrick's Day PAs? Still trying to understand the fad. I get that everyone wants another horse in the LF race to root for, but we should be realistic.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Re:Sappelt, are we really saying these things because of 20 pre St. Patrick's Day PAs? Still trying to understand the fad. I get that everyone wants another horse in the LF race to root for, but we should be realistic.

Probably has more to do with the fact he posted a .361/.416/.548/.964 line in AA last year, and followed it up with a .324/.365/.481 in an albeit short stint at the end of the year in AAA last year. And he's barely 24.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Re:Sappelt, are we really saying these things because of 20 pre St. Patrick's Day PAs? Still trying to understand the fad. I get that everyone wants another horse in the LF race to root for, but we should be realistic.

To be fair, he did have a .902 OPS in 564 PAs across 3 minor league levels incuding and .847 OPS in 115 PAs at AAA. It wasn't all just batting average either. He had 53 EXB including double digits in 2B, 3B and HR. I do think he needs some more AAA PAs to knock the door down, but he does provide the exact skillset that this team is missing at the top of the order, he's a plus defender with an improving arm as the injury he suffered goes farther in the past and as a RH Bat, would make a good partner with Lewis in a job share at the lead-off spot. I really think the Reds are working with him on his baserunning and its one of the primary things working against him. 25 SB with 18 CS is a big negative. Not sure if he was picked-off or thrown out on the bases in other ways a lot last year, but that success rate screams "don't run." If there were obvious choices ahead of him, he'd have no chance, but IMO, LF is wide open with flawed candidates. Heisey and Sappelt both have every day potential and ideally, I'd like to see them both go to AAA and get some every day PT while Gomes and Lewis hold the spot down. But both Gomes and Lewis are poor defenders who are pretty flawed and limited offensively and if they struggle the Reds should be ready to make a change quickly.

[membengal]

Wasn't Sappelt the minor league player of the year for the Reds? Or was that Mes?

Regardless, he had a monstrous year last year and jumped through and smashed through three levels. Still, like Mes, there is nothing wrong with more time at AAA since he just got there at the end of last year, and, in fact, has plenty to work on. No reason to rush him. Hopefully, he goes to AAA and mashes some more and tightens up his running, and forces his way to Cincy and the top of the order next year, or maybe even later this year.

Nice prospect from kinda outta nowhere and a further sign of the health of the Reds farm system at the moment.

[edabbs44]

After watching the 2010 version of Sappelt in the majors last year, Im not sure how we can think that this guy needs to be in the majors on OD. Put him in AAA and let him do it again. I get the feeling that the love for him has more to do with our feelings of the current LF candidates, which is potentially clouding our vision.

[bucksfan2]

Re the 40 man roster. Last year Mike Leake wasn't on the 40 man roster and the Reds took him out of camp. I doubt Sappelt makes the club but if he continues to impress he won't be long for AAA.

[Degenerate39]

Catcher:
1. Ramon Hernandez
2. Ryan Hanigan

First Base:
3. Joey Votto

Second Base:
4. Brandon Phillips

Third Base:
5. Scott Rolen

Short stop:
6. Paul Janish
7. Edgar Renteria

Starting out field:
8. Jonny Gomes
9. Drew Stubbs
10. Jay Bruce

Starting Rotation:
11. Edison Volquez
12. Bronson Arroyo
13. Johnny Cueto
14. Homer Bailey
15. Travis Wood

Bullpen:
16. Fransisco Cordero
17. Alrodis Chapman
18. Nick Masset
19. Jared Burton
20. Dontrelle Willis
21. Logan Ondrusk

Bench:
22. Juan Fransisco
23. Miguel Cairo
24. Fred Lewis
25. Chris Heisey

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

After watching the 2010 version of Sappelt in the majors last year, Im not sure how we can think that this guy needs to be in the majors on OD. Put him in AAA and let him do it again. I get the feeling that the love for him has more to do with our feelings of the current LF candidates, which is potentially clouding our vision.

Yes. As the old saying goes, wait till the boys start throwing curveballs.