2011 NFL Draft Discussion Thread

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Mallet seems like a combo of Ryan Leaf and Derek Anderson.

I'd stay away from him. Far away.

[JaxRed]

The Jaguars situation..... I know no one talks about the Jags outside of Jax, so here's my glimpse of what our situation is.

It's all about the GM here. We suffered thru 6 seasons of a horrific GM in Shack Harris.

For the 2009 season we had a new GM faced with turning around a 5-11 franchise with as many arrests as the Bengals.

So first thing about GM Gene Smith: He believes in character guys. If Ryan Mallett was on the clock when we came up, Ryan Mallet would still be on the clock when the next team drafted.

Second, he believes in sure things for the big picks. If you have a guy with big upside but big questions... he'll go for the guy with less upside and more certainty. So if we were the #1 pick, Cam Newton would NOT be our choice.

He's only had 2 drafts, so you can't say what he is done is a "trend" but it's the only thing you have to go by.

In 2 drafts he has seemed to:

1. Concentrate on linemen from big programs in first 2 rounds
2. Hit one area hard each draft. (1st 2 picks were OL in 2009, drafted 5 DL in 2010)
3. Go for Lineman again in Round 3 but start picking from small schools.
4. From Round 3 and lower have a heavy emphasis on small schools
5. Lock in on certain guys, and be so determined to get them that he gives up extra picks to get them.


How has he done?

Well, he's taken us from 5-11, to 7-9 to 8-8. A nice turnaround, but some teams have done it more quickly. And one reason may be the "lock-in" fact.
When you're rebuilding you need lots of picks. In 2009 draft he gave up a 7th round pick and a 2010 2nd to pick a corner from William and Mary (Cox) that many considered to be a reach.

In 2010 despite saying he would like to trade down and get more picks, he turned down a trade that would have garnered more picks from SF, so he could pick Alualu, in another move that was considered a reach.

Now, Alualu was very good, and Cox has been ok, but extra picks might have been better.

All the players he has drafted are still on the roster. A few things factor into it, like how depleted the roster was, and he might favor his guys over Shacks guys. But it also means he's picked good players.

So our needs going into the draft at pick 16 (1st) and then 49 (2nd):

Defense. We were ranked 27th in points allowed and have big needs at DE, Linebacker and DBs.

Offense. We have an adequate but aging QB with none on horizon.

So you factor all that in it would appear that the Jags will not trade down, and will have their sights on a DL like Kerrigan, Watts or Jordan in Rnd 1.

At some point they will address the QB issue, and if Gene likes someone enough, will move up to get him. Possibilities: Ponder, Dalton, Caepernick, Stanzi, Locker) No Mallet.

Starting in Rnd 3, he''ll be more open to trading to get more picks and will pick lots of small school guys

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

Mallet seems like a combo of Ryan Leaf and Derek Anderson.

I'd stay away from him. Far away.

Let me guess, Leaf's immaturity and Anderson's on field play. If so I can see that as well, which is why you can't take this kid in the 1st, the pressure would be immense. But personally I think he is easily much better than Anderson for sure and not quite as immature as Leaf. If you can protect him with a good O-Line and running game and get thru to him that there is a time for taking chances and a time not to he'll be a solid pro QB. Sometimes guys blessed with such arms think they are capable of making any throw at any time.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by JaxRed

The Jaguars situation..... I know no one talks about the Jags outside of Jax, so here's my glimpse of what our situation is.

It's all about the GM here. We suffered thru 6 seasons of a horrific GM in Shack Harris.

For the 2009 season we had a new GM faced with turning around a 5-11 franchise with as many arrests as the Bengals.

So first thing about GM Gene Smith: He believes in character guys. If Ryan Mallett was on the clock when we came up, Ryan Mallet would still be on the clock when the next team drafted.

Second, he believes in sure things for the big picks. If you have a guy with big upside but big questions... he'll go for the guy with less upside and more certainty. So if we were the #1 pick, Cam Newton would NOT be our choice.

He's only had 2 drafts, so you can't say what he is done is a "trend" but it's the only thing you have to go by.

In 2 drafts he has seemed to:

1. Concentrate on linemen from big programs in first 2 rounds
2. Hit one area hard each draft. (1st 2 picks were OL in 2009, drafted 5 DL in 2010)
3. Go for Lineman again in Round 3 but start picking from small schools.
4. From Round 3 and lower have a heavy emphasis on small schools
5. Lock in on certain guys, and be so determined to get them that he gives up extra picks to get them.


How has he done?

Well, he's taken us from 5-11, to 7-9 to 8-8. A nice turnaround, but some teams have done it more quickly. And one reason may be the "lock-in" fact.
When you're rebuilding you need lots of picks. In 2009 draft he gave up a 7th round pick and a 2010 2nd to pick a corner from William and Mary (Cox) that many considered to be a reach.

In 2010 despite saying he would like to trade down and get more picks, he turned down a trade that would have garnered more picks from SF, so he could pick Alualu, in another move that was considered a reach.

Now, Alualu was very good, and Cox has been ok, but extra picks might have been better.

All the players he has drafted are still on the roster. A few things factor into it, like how depleted the roster was, and he might favor his guys over Shacks guys. But it also means he's picked good players.

So our needs going into the draft at pick 16 (1st) and then 49 (2nd):

Defense. We were ranked 27th in points allowed and have big needs at DE, Linebacker and DBs.

Offense. We have an adequate but aging QB with none on horizon.

So you factor all that in it would appear that the Jags will not trade down, and will have their sights on a DL like Kerrigan, Watts or Jordan in Rnd 1.

At some point they will address the QB issue, and if Gene likes someone enough, will move up to get him. Possibilities: Ponder, Dalton, Caepernick, Stanzi, Locker) No Mallet.

Starting in Rnd 3, he''ll be more open to trading to get more picks and will pick lots of small school guys

SO having said all that what do you think about how the picks right in front of the Jags and the Jags pick itself went in my mock on the 1st page?

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

Mallet seems like a combo of Ryan Leaf and Derek Anderson.

I'd stay away from him. Far away.

Anyone who has a little attitude problem at QB often gets compared to Ryan Leaf. I think its funny how Mallet has come under such scrutiny for this draft but Cam Newton, and all his baggage, is likely to go #1. Newton is a guy who has had all of one year D1 experience running a spread offense. He is a guy with serious issues and a guy who people wonder if he can transition into a NFL caliber QB.

Mallet is a guy who has been in a pro-style system for 4 years. One was a freshman season when he didn't see the field a ton and one was a redshirt year. He is getting hammered for being an immobile QB, but the last I checked both Manning and Brady were immobile QB's. It isn't about being about being able to scramble for a 1b rather being able to sidestep a blitz. Not everyone needs to be a Big Ben or Aaron Rodgers incarnate in order to be a successful QB. I am tempted by Mallet because of his big arm and I think he has a big upside.

[JaxRed]

Well the Jags pick is what most people think will happen. Kerrigan is a high character, high motor, smart player. I'm a little concerned that he didn't do well in Senior Bowl.

My guys would be Watts and Jordan
and Smith and Kerrigan slightly lower.

I don't think the Chargers would give up a 3rd for Jordan when so many people put those 4 guys at same level.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I'm not impressed with Mallet, but of course I thought Payton Manning would be awful in the NFL, so what do I know?

[JaxRed]

I've heard and read things over the last couple days, that every time someone on a team interviews Dalton he climbs their list, and every time Mallett interviews (when he's not hung over), teams move him down their list.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by JaxRed

Well the Jags pick is what most people think will happen. Kerrigan is a high character, high motor, smart player. I'm a little concerned that he didn't do well in Senior Bowl.

My guys would be Watts and Jordan
and Smith and Kerrigan slightly lower.

I don't think the Chargers would give up a 3rd for Jordan when so many people put those 4 guys at same level.

While they may all have similar value Smith is an OLB in their system Jordan a DE, as long as they are still running a 3-4. I'm thinking the Cargers would want to get ahead of NE here because NE has a much bigger need for a Watt or Jordan, a true 3-4 DE.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Anyone who has a little attitude problem at QB often gets compared to Ryan Leaf. I think its funny how Mallet has come under such scrutiny for this draft but Cam Newton, and all his baggage, is likely to go #1. Newton is a guy who has had all of one year D1 experience running a spread offense. He is a guy with serious issues and a guy who people wonder if he can transition into a NFL caliber QB.

Mallet is a guy who has been in a pro-style system for 4 years. One was a freshman season when he didn't see the field a ton and one was a redshirt year. He is getting hammered for being an immobile QB, but the last I checked both Manning and Brady were immobile QB's. It isn't about being about being able to scramble for a 1b rather being able to sidestep a blitz. Not everyone needs to be a Big Ben or Aaron Rodgers incarnate in order to be a successful QB. I am tempted by Mallet because of his big arm and I think he has a big upside.

Manning ran a 4.9 40, Mallet a 5.3, a pretty large difference. But I do agree all Mallet needs to do is be mobile inside the pocket but his feet are nowhere near as quick and agile as Manning or Brady (though this is a much closer comparison). One other thing to consider here though is Brady is in a W/C style offense which is what the Bengals will be running, which doesn't allow for as much time for the defense to get to a QB.

I'm on the fence about Mallet but I would jump on him in a heartbeat in the 2nd under the right circumstances.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by JaxRed

I've heard and read things over the last couple days, that every time someone on a team interviews Dalton he climbs their list, and every time Mallett interviews (when he's not hung over), teams move him down their list.

Now that would concern me.

[Caveat Emperor]

The Bengals should hope that Gabbert is available at #4 and someone covets him enough to swoop in and take the pick off their hands.

I chuckle every time I see their name attached to A.J. Green. How has picking a WR top-10 worked out for teams over the years?

Darrius Heyward-Bey (#7 - 2009 OAK) BUST
Calvin Johnson (#1 - 2007 DET) HIT
Ted Ginn Jr. (#9 - 2007 MIA) BUST
Braylon Edwards (#3 2005 CLE ) BUST
Troy Williamson (#7 2005 MIN) BUST
Mike Williams (#10 2005 DET) BUST
Larry Fitzgerald (#3 2004 ARI) HIT
Roy Williams (#7 2004 DET) BUST
Reggie Williams (#9 2004 JAX) BUST
Charles Rogers (#2 2003 DET) BUST
Andre Johnson (#3 2003 HOU) HIT
David Terrell (#8 2001 CHI) BUST
Koren Robinson (#9 2001 SEA) BUST

Great odds here.

[RichRed]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

The Bengals should hope that Gabbert is available at #4 and someone covets him enough to swoop in and take the pick off their hands.

I chuckle every time I see their name attached to A.J. Green. How has picking a WR top-10 worked out for teams over the years?

Darrius Heyward-Bey (#7 - 2009 OAK) BUST
Calvin Johnson (#1 - 2007 DET) HIT
Ted Ginn Jr. (#9 - 2007 MIA) BUST
Braylon Edwards (#3 2005 CLE ) BUST
Troy Williamson (#7 2005 MIN) BUST
Mike Williams (#10 2005 DET) BUST
Larry Fitzgerald (#3 2004 ARI) HIT
Roy Williams (#7 2004 DET) BUST
Reggie Williams (#9 2004 JAX) BUST
Charles Rogers (#2 2003 DET) BUST
Andre Johnson (#3 2003 HOU) HIT
David Terrell (#8 2001 CHI) BUST
Koren Robinson (#9 2001 SEA) BUST

Great odds here.

Just don't draft a WR named Williams(on) and your odds improve greatly.

[LoganBuck]

With Mallet, I have images of the Ohio State game fresh in my mind. Both the good and the bad. He was under immense pressure all night and had his receivers held onto the ball he would have been seen differently. He made nice passes all night.

The other side though was against a very fast and athletic front seven, he couldn't get out of the way, or escape at even the slightest bit of pressure. He took massive hits all night long. I don't see him surviving as a starter in the NFL with that footspeed, and limited footwork. People can say Peyton Manning all they want, but Peyton Manning can move his feet around in the pocket. Mallet can not.

[WVRed]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

Ok, with that said, I just spent 5 minutes looking over my Lindy's draft preview.

How's this for a quick infusion of offense?

Draft triplets with the first three picks.

1st Green - WR
2nd Ingram - RB (probably won't be available, if not maybe take LeShoure)
3rd Ponder - QB

I really like Ponder, as long as his elbow can hold up.

I'm all for Green and LeShore (don't think Ponder and Ingram will be available). No way no how do I want the Bengals to draft a QB this year. Too many issues with the ones available and next year's looks more promising. Stockpile weapons with Green and LeShore to add to Gresham and Shipley, then draft either Andrew Luck or Matt Barkley next year. I believe we will be in bad enough shape to pick one of those two next year.