Excited about Bailey. Conflicted about Leake/Wood

[markymark69]

All three guys have tremendous potential. Homer's big problem is that he was rushed to the major leagues - keep in mind he just turned 25.

If the Reds would have handled him like they handled Wood and some others in the organization - Homer would not have fallen out of favor so quickly, IMO.

There are rules to the exception and maybe Leake falls into that category - but the former regime rushed Bailey and perhaps retarded his growth a bit.

Homer has been slow to make adjustments and he has been bitten by the injury bug a bit. Leake and Wood are now faced with making adjustments - the jury is still out on how they will do.

There is no question all three of them have things that we can be excited about.

[brm7675]

I hope I am wrong, I hope Homer has the type of season the "experts" feel he can, i mean that would mean alot to this team and i fully understand that he is still young as he was a HS drafted player. He is given a tough first outing given how our offense is right now and facing the Stros Ace and having to be stuck with Edgar at SS, hopefully he can still do well with those negatives.

[bounty37h]

Originally Posted by markymark69

All three guys have tremendous potential. Homer's big problem is that he was rushed to the major leagues - keep in mind he just turned 25.

If the Reds would have handled him like they handled Wood and some others in the organization - Homer would not have fallen out of favor so quickly, IMO.

There are rules to the exception and maybe Leake falls into that category - but the former regime rushed Bailey and perhaps retarded his growth a bit.

Homer has been slow to make adjustments and he has been bitten by the injury bug a bit. Leake and Wood are now faced with making adjustments - the jury is still out on how they will do.

There is no question all three of them have things that we can be excited about.

I agree, and will add I think Homers attitude (reportedly) held his progress back as well. I do still think he has potential and can do some great things, certainly wasnt implying otherwise.

[BluegrassRedleg]

Originally Posted by markymark69

All three guys have tremendous potential. Homer's big problem is that he was rushed to the major leagues - keep in mind he just turned 25.

If the Reds would have handled him like they handled Wood and some others in the organization - Homer would not have fallen out of favor so quickly, IMO.

There are rules to the exception and maybe Leake falls into that category - but the former regime rushed Bailey and perhaps retarded his growth a bit.

Homer has been slow to make adjustments and he has been bitten by the injury bug a bit. Leake and Wood are now faced with making adjustments - the jury is still out on how they will do.

There is no question all three of them have things that we can be excited about.

Great points, especially on Homer being rushed up and our "microwave society." People were calling for the Reds to trade the guy (or in some cases "just get rid of him") after just a handful of starts at the MLB level. It was ridiculous. We don't give people time to develop anymore. Now now now.

[Cant Touch This]

Originally Posted by brm7675

Tearing it up? Where, when? Bailey has pitched well against bottom feeders in the bigs and vs. AAA hitters, where else has he torn it up?

And Willis? Really you can not be serious? Yes early in his career he did well, but that is way in his past. At best he is a situation middle inning reliever right now, at worse he is an independent league pitcher.

Leaving Chapman in the bullpen is the greatest waste of talent maybe ever in major league baseball. You have a kid with an incredible arm who just needs some work on arm strength and the ability to throw a thrid pitch for a strike and you want him in the bullpen throwing an inning here and an inning there every other day or every 3rd or 4th day?

0.54 ERA and 0.90 WHIP is tearing it up. I don't care at what level - it's tearing it up. I'm talking about this season only. Maybe I didn't make that clear.

I'm not going to argue about Willis. He's pitched well enough in AAA to warrant a look to see if he's found something that he lost. It's a low-risk, high-reward proposition. If it fails, big deal - we cut him loose. We have the depth to support the experiment. If the Reds didn't think there was at least a shot that he'd regain his form, then they never would have invited him. If the Reds thought he was nothing more than an independent league pitcher, he wouldn't be stealing opportunities from other young pitchers.

I'd like to see Chapman in the starting rotation at some point.I don't know that this is the year to move him. He has major control issues and until those are worked out, the Reds have too much talent in their rotation to mess with it.

[markymark69]

Originally Posted by bounty37h

I agree, and will add I think Homers attitude (reportedly) held his progress back as well. I do still think he has potential and can do some great things, certainly wasnt implying otherwise.

I agree with the attitude - alluded to that with being slow to make adjustments or take coaching. Seems to have matured. Hope for more outings like today.

[Cant Touch This]

Originally Posted by brm7675

Look at where Leake and Wood are at their points in their Careers and look at that exact same point in the careers of both Lee and Maddux. Not saying that Leake and Wood will be that good, but I like their chances alot more then Homer because as of yet Homer has yet to show the ability to "pitch".

Other than excluding Homer, this is the best point you've made in this thread, and one that I've been trying to emphasize since mid-Winter.

Someone mentioned the "microwave society" - it's a perfect term. People are so impatient these days - it's instant gratification or panic.

Where I disagree with you is with Homer. Based on exactly what you said about Maddux (and you can exchange his name with many dozens of other current or former TOR pitchers), I fully believe this would be Homer's year to start to blossom. I would expect the best numbers of his career to register over the next 5 or 6 years, depending on health, but based on historical averages of other outstanding pitchers, this would be the year for Homer.

I'm not claiming to be an "expert" - I'm just looking at the backs of baseball cards of others who have been in Bailey's position. I also don't have a Magic 8 Ball in front of me, so I can't guarantee anything. Sure, Homer could be a bust, but there's no way in hell I'm going to label him that this early in his career.

Incidentally, I would have said (and did say) all of these things prior to his quality start today. High quality start, in fact...

[signalhome]

Originally Posted by brm7675

what in the time Homer has been with the Reds on any level leads you to believe that?

Because when Bailey is on, like what I saw today (unfortunately, had to miss most of it), he looks absolutely unhittable. He has better stuff than either Wood or Leake; what he lacks is consistency. Last year, both his fastball and slider rated out as very good pitches (0.49 wFB/C and 1.03 wSL/C). Where he really struggled was with his splitter (-3.41 wSF/C, which is awful), and it wasn't from a lack of movement on the pitch, it was from a lack of location. It seemed like every time he had a bad outing, he was struggling to place his splitter, and if you leave a splitter up, it's going to get hit very hard. I don't have any data to back this up, so if someone has it to prove me wrong, please let me know and I will gladly rescind this statement, but it just seemed to me that his best outings came when he was featuring great control of his splitter. If he could ever find consistency in placing his splitter, I think we could be looking at a guy who regularly posts an FIP of right around 3.00 (3.74 last year, even struggling so much with his splitter). That may be a bit optimistic, but that's where I believe his ceiling lies.

[signalhome]

Originally Posted by brm7675

Look at where Leake and Wood are at their points in their Careers and look at that exact same point in the careers of both Lee and Maddux. Not saying that Leake and Wood will be that good, but I like their chances alot more then Homer because as of yet Homer has yet to show the ability to "pitch".

At Wood and Leake's age, Cliff Lee was still in the minors. He didn't start to pitch well until 2008, when he was 30 years old. The reason Lee is a good comp for Wood is they both (if Wood is at his best, like last year) an above-average K/9 with a superb BB/9 and give up a lot of fly balls. Wood needs to do what Lee finally managed to do at age 30, which is get his GB% above 40% -- still not great, but acceptable, and phenomenal when compared to his previous seasons. He can still be pretty good when only 30% of the balls put into play are on the ground, but to reach his fullest potential, he has to get that under control; he will not ever reach elite status in GABP giving up fly balls 48% of the time. I really hope he can do whatever Lee did and get the fly balls under control. I touched on his troublesome LD% earlier, and it's something else he really needs to control. 21.4 LD% last year, 26.8% this year -- it's hard to pitch well when people are hitting the ball hard that often. He has managed to be productive in spite of the high LD%, but if he could just get that under 20%, again, he could be amazing. I see Wood having a lot more potential than Leake. If he could get these things under control, he could make himself into a very solid #2 guy in the rotation.