Should the Reds start to think LTC for Stubbs? - Page 2 - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

WVRedsFan · 05-14-2011, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

And, to be honest, to me he looks like a better all around player than Bruce right now. Let the year play out, and then see what kind of multiyear deal makes sense.

Them's fighting words around here

. But, I agree. Jay is a good average right fielder, but will he become the all star guy we thought he'd be? That's the $64-million dollar question.

OnBaseMachine · 05-15-2011, 01:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

Them's fighting words around here

. But, I agree. Jay is a good average right fielder, but will he become the all star guy we thought he'd be? That's the $64-million dollar question.

Bruce put up All-Star caliber numbers last season. I'm sure he'll be fine this season too.

Back to the main point, I love the idea of locking Stubbs up long-term. Potential 30/30 and Gold Glove caliber CF? Sign me up. Those guys are tough to find.

WVRedsFan · 05-15-2011, 01:54 AM

On that there is no question. Most teams would love to have Stubbs long term We need to pull the trigger. As for Jay, he's far from putting up All Star numbers. He came on in the last part of the season and show flashes of brilliance from time to time, but at the risk of being ridiculed, he is a young player, and hopefully will improve. Right now, as seems to be the case for a lot of his MLB career, he's struggling. He will get it figured out sooner than later, but he needs to be more consistent to really be the AS player he has the potential to be.

GAC · 05-15-2011, 04:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

Leverage.

The sooner you do it before arbitration the more, typically, you save long term.

I'd wait to see how he performs this season. Don't jump the gun. Then next off-season they could do with him like they did with Votto and buy up his arb years.

Brutus · 05-15-2011, 05:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GAC

I'd wait to see how he performs this season. Don't jump the gun. Then next off-season they could do with him like they did with Votto and buy up his arb years.

Well that's a fair point, but I guess it depends on if we think he needs to prove anything more. Granted, it's not like he's established himself, so that would be a good reason to wait another year. On the other hand, it's probably safe to think if the Reds gave him a deal similar to Bruce's, that it would still wind up being well worth their while as his defense and power alone will likely justify the money they pay him.

medford · 05-17-2011, 01:45 PM

stolen from Lance's Blog:

Quote:

Drew Stubbs
Don't look now but Stubbs has been on base at least twice in a game for 9 straight games. I wonder what the team record is?
His on-base percentage is up to .372...that's up from .329 last year and .364 for his minor league career.
In May he's hitting .327 with an OBP of .431.
He's on pace for .281 with 28 HR, 79 RBI, 126 R and 51 SB.
And what an Eric Davis like laser beam he threw to the plate to get Alphonso Soriano last night.

http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog.html

I don't know about attempting to extend him now or at the end of this season, but he's certainly bloosoming into one of the great young all around CFers in the game right now. I wonder how much Dusty worries about moving him on/off the leadoff spot w/ Lewis leading off vs righties, and Stubbs hitting 2nd.

Benihana · 05-17-2011, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GAC

I'd wait to see how he performs this season. Don't jump the gun. Then next off-season they could do with him like they did with Votto and buy up his arb years.

So he can walk in 2-3 years? No thanks.

I'd start talking now. What I'd be most concerned about, however, is whether that will increase BP's anxiety over his lack of a long-term deal. Maybe pickup BP's option and extend Stubbs at the same time towards the end of the summer.

One difference to keep in mind with Stubbs is that with the continued progress of both Sappelt and LaMarre, the Reds do have something of a contingency plan that they lacked with Bruce. I don't think either could come close to replacing Stubbs, but they are closer than what anyone in the organization at the time was to Bruce's (potential) production. Stubbs is also almost 3 years older than Bruce. I'd offer something like 5/32 and see what he came back with.

Sea Ray · 05-17-2011, 03:19 PM

If you squint hard enough you can look in that rear view mirror and see when there was talk that he was a bust, would never hit in the majors and was definitely no leadoff hitter

My oh my how things have changed

Roy Tucker · 05-17-2011, 03:35 PM

If you wait for a young prospect to pass the tipping point to proven player, you've lost any leverage you might have.

The 2 examples we have are Jay Bruce and Joey Votto. I think the Reds made a good calculated gamble with signing Bruce to a LTC. Has he proven himself? Maybe.

But they missed the boat with Votto and waited too long. They bought up his arb years, but who cares. They'd get those anyhow. All they really got was maybe a little good will.

Where a GM earns the big bucks is sensing when that momentum shift is occuring and the tipping point is about to be reached.

REDREAD · 05-17-2011, 04:12 PM

Yes, sign him to a LTC.

Honestly, if the Reds were forced financially to cut a player to balance the payroll, Stubbs or Phillips would probably be the last player I'd cut.

A solid CF that can hit like Stubbs is a very rare bird indeed.
I really don't want to go back to the days of guys like Freel, Patterson, and Taveras manning CF.

kaldaniels · 05-31-2011, 12:23 AM

Mind blowing stat of the day for me....

Here we are on the last day of May, and according to fangraphs only 14 position players have a higher WAR than Drew Stubbs.

Captain Hook · 05-31-2011, 12:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Mind blowing stat of the day for me....

Here we are on the last day of May, and according to fangraphs only 14 position players have a higher WAR than Drew Stubbs.

How many of those guys are Reds?Stubbs has been valuable but not the most valuable.

As far as WAR goes I understand that it combines offensive stats and defensive stats and then comes up with a number that gives you a value for a player based on the wins that player creates compared to a replacement level player.The thing I don't understand is why many people say that you really need to look at a full season and sometimes multiple season for WAR to be valid.To me it should be as cut and dry as the numbers used to come up with it if those numbers are taken seriously and I assume they are.So what's the deal?Sorry to get off subject.

SirFelixCat · 05-31-2011, 12:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain Hook

How many of those guys are Reds?Stubbs has been valuable but not the most valuable.

As far as WAR goes I understand that it combines offensive stats and defensive stats and then comes up with a number that gives you a value for a player based on the wins that player creates compared to a replacement level player.The thing I don't understand is why many people say that you really need to look at a full season and sometimes multiple season for WAR to be valid.To me it should be as cut and dry as the numbers used to come up with it if those numbers are taken seriously and I assume they are.So what's the deal?Sorry to get off subject.

Only 1...Votto at 2.8. Stubbs, 2.2, BP 2.0, and Jay at 1.9.

Bautista is blowing everyone out of the water w/ a 4.7. Howie Kendrick is in 2nd w/ a 3.0.

kaldaniels · 05-31-2011, 12:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirFelixCat

Only 1...Votto at 2.8. Stubbs, 2.2, BP 2.0, and Jay at 1.9.

Bautista is blowing everyone out of the water w/ a 4.7. Howie Kendrick is in 2nd w/ a 3.0.

Its a logjam after the top-10 guys or so, but that doesn't make me any less impressed. Good for Drew.

WVRedsFan · 05-31-2011, 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Its a logjam after the top-10 guys or so, but that doesn't make me any less impressed. Good for Drew.

I see a lot to like with Drew Stubbs. And he will be an All Star someday. Mark it down. He has the talent and all he lacks is seasoning.

05-15-2011, 01:54 AM	#18
WVRedsFan Lime in da Coconut Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: Rainelle, WV Posts: 7,711	Re: Should the Reds start to think LTC for Stubbs? On that there is no question. Most teams would love to have Stubbs long term We need to pull the trigger. As for Jay, he's far from putting up All Star numbers. He came on in the last part of the season and show flashes of brilliance from time to time, but at the risk of being ridiculed, he is a young player, and hopefully will improve. Right now, as seems to be the case for a lot of his MLB career, he's struggling. He will get it figured out sooner than later, but he needs to be more consistent to really be the AS player he has the potential to be. __________________ www.ris-news.com "The price of seeking to force our beliefs on others is that someday they might force their beliefs on us." Mario Cuomo "You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5." -Beano Cook

05-17-2011, 03:19 PM	#23
Sea Ray Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Cincinnati, Ohio Posts: 15,252	Re: Should the Reds start to think LTC for Stubbs? If you squint hard enough you can look in that rear view mirror and see when there was talk that he was a bust, would never hit in the majors and was definitely no leadoff hitter My oh my how things have changed

05-17-2011, 03:35 PM	#24
Roy Tucker Be the ball Join Date: May 2001 Location: Mason, OH Posts: 11,111	Re: Should the Reds start to think LTC for Stubbs? If you wait for a young prospect to pass the tipping point to proven player, you've lost any leverage you might have. The 2 examples we have are Jay Bruce and Joey Votto. I think the Reds made a good calculated gamble with signing Bruce to a LTC. Has he proven himself? Maybe. But they missed the boat with Votto and waited too long. They bought up his arb years, but who cares. They'd get those anyhow. All they really got was maybe a little good will. Where a GM earns the big bucks is sensing when that momentum shift is occuring and the tipping point is about to be reached. __________________ "We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, therefore, is not an act but a habit."

05-17-2011, 04:12 PM	#25
REDREAD Where's my chair? Join Date: Apr 2000 Posts: 19,781	Re: Should the Reds start to think LTC for Stubbs? Yes, sign him to a LTC. Honestly, if the Reds were forced financially to cut a player to balance the payroll, Stubbs or Phillips would probably be the last player I'd cut. A solid CF that can hit like Stubbs is a very rare bird indeed. I really don't want to go back to the days of guys like Freel, Patterson, and Taveras manning CF. __________________ Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2012 AND 2013! Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

05-31-2011, 12:23 AM	#26
kaldaniels Viva la Rolen Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 6,301	Re: Should the Reds start to think LTC for Stubbs? Mind blowing stat of the day for me.... Here we are on the last day of May, and according to fangraphs only 14 position players have a higher WAR than Drew Stubbs.

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