Five back, ninety-nine to go....

[jojo]

As of the morning of June 9th, the Reds are 5 games back of the Cardinals with 99 games left in the season.

It's not a surprise that the Cards, Brewers and Reds are the group leading the division, but it is a bit frustrating that the Reds are the team chasing both the Cards and Brewcrew and they only lead the Pirates by half a game. Who would've thought the Ms would have a better record than the Reds at this point? That said, clearly there is alot of baseball to be played.

Five games may seem like a huge deficit to some and maybe not a big deal to others. It's just a number without some type of context that helps inform the size of the task it'll take to overcome it...

Here's the context I use- if the Cards go 50-49 the rest of the way (essentially playing .500 ball, a threshold that they certainly are capable of surpassing), the Reds would have to go 55-44 the rest of the way to tie (.556 ball).

Going into the season, I thought the Reds were likely an 85-86 win true talent team (.525-.530 ball) based upon the 2011 projection thread and barring injuries which would suggest they'd likely go 52-47 the rest of the way.

Being back 5 games is not an insurmountable deficit in and of itself and given the talent on their roster, there is no reason to panic or start wondering if the Reds should be sellers. But it's quickly becoming a time where the Reds need to get cranking because without additions to the roster, they're digging a hole that will be very difficult to climb out of IMHO....

Shortstop, left field, and the rotation are positions that could be upgraded meaningfully. Third base has been a problem but Rolen likely isn't going to be replaced IMHO. Phillips has struggled at the plate for the better part of his last 150 PAs. One would hope he'd be closer to a league average hitter going forward so that should improve.

But absent guys going on a tear or additions via trade, it's starting to get to a point where the Reds are going to need others to falter (i.e. their destiny may not be completely in their own hands).

Thoughts? Discussion?

[oneupper]

A three way race complicates things. Especially as the REDS find themselves some distance behind the Brewers also. You could argue that the race is Brewer-Cards at this point and the REDS have to rally to get back IN the race.

It's going to take 90-91 wins to get in front of at least one of those two. If it's insufficient for the division, that level of wins could be good enough for the wild card.
Fewer than that is going to fall short on both counts, IMO.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by oneupper

A three way race complicates things. Especially as the REDS find themselves some distance behind the Brewers also. You could argue that the race is Brewer-Cards at this point and the REDS have to rally to get back IN the race.

It's going to take 90-91 wins to get in front of at least one of those two. If it's insufficient for the division, that level of wins could be good enough for the wild card.
Fewer than that is going to fall short on both counts, IMO.

If my math is correct, 91 wins would mean the Reds have to go 59-40 the rest of the way.... That's a slim margin for error.

[oneupper]

Originally Posted by jojo

If my math is correct, 91 wins would mean the Reds have to go 59-40 the rest of the way.... That's a slim margin for error.

I know. But if you look back, the WC is usually around 88-92 wins. There have been a few division champs with poor records, but I don't see that happening in the Central this year because the Cubs and Astros are so weak and everyone else is going to rack up wins against them.

[757690]

The Reds pick up one game a week and they are in first place by the All-Star break.

The Brewers and Cardinals picked up around 5 games in 10 days last month.

One winning steak, and the Reds could be 5 games in front.

The Reds need to go 19 games over .500 the rest of the way to win 90 games. If they win one more game than they lose every week, they are almost there.

The Reds could also end up 20 games below .500 in last place. There's plenty of time for both scenarios to take place.

Most importantly, the Reds clearly have the talent to go on tear and run away with the division.

[OesterPoster]

Brewers are horrendous on the road, so let's look at their remaining road schedule.

Other than some gimme games in Chicago, Houston, etc...they have 3 in Boston next week, 3 more at the Yankees this month, and then the killer stretch for them in July. 11 games in 11 days, at Colorado, at Arizona, and at San Fran. Their road schedule in August and September eases quite a bit with mostly games within the division and the Mets.

So if the Brewers manage to get through that rough stretch in July, I like their chances to win the division. If not, then it's up to the Cards and Reds.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by 757690

The Reds pick up one game a week and they are in first place by the All-Star break.

The Brewers and Cardinals picked up around 5 games in 10 days last month.

One winning steak, and the Reds could be 5 games in front.

The Reds need to go 19 games over .500 the rest of the way to win 90 games. If they win one more game than they lose every week, they are almost there.

The Reds could also end up 20 games below .500 in last place. There's plenty of time for both scenarios to take place.

Most importantly, the Reds clearly have the talent to go on tear and run away with the division.

The Reds have a pretty tough schedule in the next month that doesn't really give them a breather until the end of July. If they play .595 ball (i.e. like a team playing 59-40 like ball) over the next 5 weeks, they certainly will have earned it...

[lollipopcurve]

Going to be tough. The Reds could easily find themselves close to 10 games back after this road trip.

[HokieRed]

Given the schedule, I think we'll have a great deal greater clarity on these matters after the next 7 games, 4 at SF, 3 at LA--and then, most certainly, after the next 13--which includes coming back home for three with the Jays and three with the Yankees. It seems to me they have to do no worse than .500 over this stretch, which will take some doing. Given the difficulty of this stretch, it would be a good gamble, IMO, to make a move right now--if a semi-reasonable one can be made. Maybe try to get a little jump start from a move for Ludwick and promotion of Cozart to play SS. I agree with Jojo that a move's unlikely at 3b and, frankly, as long as Cairo can do about .750 there in Rolen's stead, making a move there seems less compelling. At this point in the season, the pitching available is unlikely to make much of a difference.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by 757690

The Reds pick up one game a week and they are in first place by the All-Star break.

The Brewers and Cardinals picked up around 5 games in 10 days last month.

One winning steak, and the Reds could be 5 games in front.

The Reds need to go 19 games over .500 the rest of the way to win 90 games. If they win one more game than they lose every week, they are almost there.

The Reds could also end up 20 games below .500 in last place. There's plenty of time for both scenarios to take place.

Most importantly, the Reds clearly have the talent to go on tear and run away with the division.

Yes, it is kind of meaningless to try and break it down by numbers right now.

[MikeThierry]

I actually think the Wild Card will come from this division so even if the Reds do not eclipse the Brewers or Cards, there is a good chance they can compete for the Wild Card.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Yes, it is kind of meaningless to try and break it down by numbers right now.

Actually is pretty meaningful and one would hope the FO is doing their calculus.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by jojo

Actually is pretty meaningful and one would hope the FO is doing their calculus.

Trying to guesstimate how many wins your team will need by using a complete guess on how many other teams you are competing with will have going fwd is kind of ridiculous.

Just win as many as possible.

[lollipopcurve]

But absent guys going on a tear or additions via trade, it's starting to get to a point where the Reds are going to need others to falter (i.e. their destiny may not be completely in their own hands).

Their destiny is in their own hands. Players can play better. Players can be acquired. They can beat up on the Cards and Brewers when they play them.

Do they have a tough road? Absolutely. Will only an extended period of their own great play or another team's lousy play save them? No. Does everyone know that if current trends keep up they will find themselves in that situation? Yes, we know that already.

[Hoosier Red]

Originally Posted by 757690

The Reds pick up one game a week and they are in first place by the All-Star break.

The Brewers and Cardinals picked up around 5 games in 10 days last month.

One winning steak, and the Reds could be 5 games in front.

The Reds need to go 19 games over .500 the rest of the way to win 90 games. If they win one more game than they lose every week, they are almost there.

The Reds could also end up 20 games below .500 in last place. There's plenty of time for both scenarios to take place.

Most importantly, the Reds clearly have the talent to go on tear and run away with the division.

I think there's good news and bad news in that analysis. The Reds/Brewers/Cards have played pretty much the same except for a 10 day stretch in which the Brewers and Cards picked up 5 games on the Reds.

To me this means the Reds simply need a string of winning baseball, a run where they go 8-2 over one 10 game stretch and 7-3 over another. If they did that, in the next 20 games for instance, they'd be 47-36 and likely be in the lead or near it.
That also would change the algebra of getting to 90 wins substantially. At that point, they'd have to play .544(43-36) ball to get to 90 wins which seems like less of a mountain.

IMO, the Reds have played their worst stretch of baseball over the last 30 days. They may not win enough to get back to the top, but I definitely think they have a run of really good baseball in them.