Homer Baily--future ace? Jim Bowden thinks so

[cinreds21]

Every major league club searches for top-of-the-rotation starting pitchers because that's how teams win pennants. Look at the six division leaders. In the National League, the Phillies have Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels; the Brewers have Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum; the Giants have Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner. In the American League, the Yankees have CC Sabathia and Bartolo Colon; the Tigers have Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer; and the Rangers have Alexi Ogando and C.J. Wilson. Every club is trying to find the next pitcher who can develop into the type of impact starter that puts it into a pennant race.

Besides the draft, international signings, free agency and trades, there are really only three other places you can find top-of-the-rotation starters:

1. The back end of your present rotation
2. Moving a pitcher from the bullpen to the rotation
3. Minor leagues

This piece will examine starting pitchers in the first category.

In recent years, we have seen several pitchers develop from the back to the front of their clubs' rotations, including Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tommy Hanson of the Atlanta Braves, Johnny Cueto of the Cincinnati Reds and Jaime Garcia of the St. Louis Cardinals.

The only examples I agree with are Garcia and Cueto. Both Hanson and Kershaw were expected to do this.

4. Homer Bailey, RHP, Cincinnati
If Bailey, 25, can stay healthy, he should become a 15-18 game winner. He's had to overcome injuries, including shoulder problems this year. When healthy, his fastball is 90-96 mph with hard, arm-side sink. The pitch is so overpowering that at times he can throw it down the middle of the plate, tell the hitters it's coming and they still can't catch up. When he was drafted, he had a big curveball that was his primary breaking pitch, but now his tight slider or cutter is his most effective breaking ball. All his pitches move, and he's a fierce competitor who is really finding himself. His stubbornness is leaving, and his stuff is dynamic. If he keeps the shoulder healthy, he could develop like Cueto and end up at the top of the Reds' rotation. Maturity can get him there in a hurry.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by cinreds21

The only examples I agree with are Garcia and Cueto. Both Hanson and Kershaw were expected to do this.

I completely agree with the assessment of Bailey, but 3 shoulder injuries in a 12 month span scare the heck out of me. If it all really is unrelated and there are no residual effects, I think he'll be the Reds ace by as soon as October.

I just suspect these injuries are the puffs of smoke that indicate that there is a fire burining in that shoulder that the medical staff hasn't been able to find. The Reds should plan for the worst and hope for the best. They should plan their team as if Homer isn't an option and take it as a good fortune if he turns out to be available.

[Chip R]

If JimBo thinks Homer's an ace, we better trade him ASAP.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by mth123

I completely agree with the assessment of Bailey, but 3 shoulder injuries in a 12 month span scare the heck out of me. If it all really is unrelated and there are no residual effects, I think he'll be the Reds ace by as soon as October.

I just suspect these injuries are the puffs of smoke that indicate that there is a fire burining in that shoulder that the medical staff hasn't been able to find. The Reds should plan for the worst and hope for the best. They should plan their team as if Homer isn't an option and take it as a good fortune if he turns out to be available.

I have injury concerns about Homer as well and I like him being a top of the rotation pitcher in Cincinnati going forward, but can you really consider him our "ace" after the way Cueto has been pitching this year. If Homer stays healthy, I really like Cueto-Bailey-Leake as our playoff rotation.

That being said, if a James Shields-Felix Hernandez ace is available, I would love to add one of them by dealing some of our farm for a true ace and then an ace-Cueto-Bailey rotation would make us really tough.

[signalhome]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

I have injury concerns about Homer as well and I like him being a top of the rotation pitcher in Cincinnati going forward, but can you really consider him our "ace" after the way Cueto has been pitching this year. If Homer stays healthy, I really like Cueto-Bailey-Leake as our playoff rotation.

That being said, if a James Shields-Felix Hernandez ace is available, I would love to add one of them by dealing some of our farm for a true ace and then an ace-Cueto-Bailey rotation would make us really tough.

I would practically sell the farm to land Felix.

[The Voice of IH]

I think it is clear that this rotation is the rotation of the future. And honestly a Cueto, Chapman, Bailey, Leake, Wood has four Ace's on it and a great number three.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by signalhome

I would practically sell the farm to land Felix.

I think I would, too. I just didn't want to overly exxagerate. Do you think Mesoraco, Alonso, Frazier, Wood and Hamilton gets it done?

[RedLegsToday]

Do you think Mesoraco, Alonso, Frazier, Wood and Hamilton gets it done?

That's a mid-rotation starter, 3 majors-ready excellent-to-very good prospects, and a low minors speedburner (which every franchise seems to love). If that can't get it done, then, there is no getting it done.

Personally, any deal involving Mes is a mistake. He looks like the real deal to me. Swap Grandal for Mes and I'm in!

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by RedLegsToday

That's a mid-rotation starter, 3 majors-ready excellent-to-very good prospects, and a low minors speedburner (which every franchise seems to love). If that can't get it done, then, there is no getting it done.

Personally, any deal involving Mes is a mistake. He looks like the real deal to me. Swap Grandal for Mes and I'm in!

I don't want to trade Mes either, but I am not going to let the perceived difference between him and Grandal be a deal-breaker. I obviously prefer Mes over Grandal, but I think Grandal will be an above-average ML player.

I don't want to trade Todd Frazier, either, but I really don't see him getting a chance to be the 3B of the future. The organization is enamored with Francisco over Frazier and I think I prefer Frazier.

I think I would offer Francisco, Alonso, Grandal, Wood and Hamilton, but would up the offering to Frazier and Mes if they insisted. I would also swap out Hamilton for Yorman if they asked. I am starting to get scared about reports of Yorman's work ethic.

[signalhome]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

I think I would, too. I just didn't want to overly exxagerate. Do you think Mesoraco, Alonso, Frazier, Wood and Hamilton gets it done?

Honestly, I've no idea what kind of prospects the Mariners already have at those positions, so it's hard to say. I know they've got Smoak at 1B, so Alonso probably isn't as appealing as we'd like him to be, but maybe they'd try him at LF. However, if the Mariners were to even offer him, and without really knowing their strengths and needs, I think (more like hope) something like Hamilton, Grandal, Frazier, Wood, and Boxberger/Lotzkar (one of those two) would be a good place to start. That move kind of guts the farm a little bit, but landing a pitcher of Hernandez's caliber would make the Reds legitimate World Series contenders for the next few years.

This is all just talk, though. I can't imagine the Mariners would be willing to deal him and the Reds may not even be willing to take on his salary -- he's due for $18.5 million in 2012, $19.5 million in 2013, and $20 million in 2014. That's a hefty sum for a team like the Reds.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by signalhome

Honestly, I've no idea what kind of prospects the Mariners already have at those positions, so it's hard to say. I know they've got Smoak at 1B, so Alonso probably isn't as appealing as we'd like him to be, but maybe they'd try him at LF. However, if the Mariners were to even offer him, and without really knowing their strengths and needs, I think (more like hope) something like Hamilton, Grandal, Frazier, Wood, and Boxberger/Lotzkar (one of those two) would be a good place to start. That move kind of guts the farm a little bit, but landing a pitcher of Hernandez's caliber would make the Reds legitimate World Series contenders for the next few years.

This is all just talk, though. I can't imagine the Mariners would be willing to deal him and the Reds may not even be willing to take on his salary -- he's due for $18.5 million in 2012, $19.5 million in 2013, and $20 million in 2014. That's a hefty sum for a team like the Reds.

Agreed, this would definitely be a franchise altering move. It would take support from Castellini, Jocketty, Buckley and Dusty. Castellini would have to increase payroll substantially and Jocketty and Buckley would have to agree on prospects.

I included Alonso just because he is such a trade chip and the Dave Cameron-Pineda article mentioned how the M's could use Alonso in left. If that failed, they could always DH Alonso. I honestly think your deal is less valuable than mine, so I would love to see a deal where the Reds got King Felix without trading Mesoraco or any major league pieces.

I agree the team would be right up there with the Phils as World Series contenders and the good thing is that it solidifes this window. All of the guys thrown in the deal would likely help a lot after 2014, but Phillips, Rolen and Votto are all going to be gone then. This helps this team's core be the most competitive that it can be and I would imagine would push up attendance to automatic sell-outs on the weekends and close to 30k on week nights.

I think the buzz created from this deal would come close to the Griffey deal. Nothing beats the favorite son coming home, but after winning his Cy Young award, the Average Joe fan is going to understand this as a major aggressive step by the Reds and will help to push the Lost Decade into the past.

[RedsManRick]

Put me in the group that thinks Bailey has the highest ceiling of any starter on the 25 man roster, the only one with "Ace" potential. I'm not going hold my breath on Chapman being converted back to a starter (or staying healthy) and I don't believe Volquez is capable of sustaining a low enough BB rate to be a top-flight starter. Unfortunately, I'm highly doubtful that he'll ever reach it, mostly due to health.

If you gave me an over/under on 200+ IP seasons from Bailey at 0.5, I'd take the under.

[signalhome]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Agreed, this would definitely be a franchise altering move. It would take support from Castellini, Jocketty, Buckley and Dusty. Castellini would have to increase payroll substantially and Jocketty and Buckley would have to agree on prospects.

I included Alonso just because he is such a trade chip and the Dave Cameron-Pineda article mentioned how the M's could use Alonso in left. If that failed, they could always DH Alonso. I honestly think your deal is less valuable than mine, so I would love to see a deal where the Reds got King Felix without trading Mesoraco or any major league pieces.

I agree the team would be right up there with the Phils as World Series contenders and the good thing is that it solidifes this window. All of the guys thrown in the deal would likely help a lot after 2014, but Phillips, Rolen and Votto are all going to be gone then. This helps this team's core be the most competitive that it can be and I would imagine would push up attendance to automatic sell-outs on the weekends and close to 30k on week nights.

I think the buzz created from this deal would come close to the Griffey deal. Nothing beats the favorite son coming home, but after winning his Cy Young award, the Average Joe fan is going to understand this as a major aggressive step by the Reds and will help to push the Lost Decade into the past.

Yeah, my deal's a lot less valuable because I'm being very stubborn on keeping Mesoraco; I really wouldn't want to give him up, and would only do so if absolutely nothing else could get it done. It's also likely that the Reds would have to give up a guy like Heisey as well. If the M's are willing to play Alonso in LF or DH, though, then maybe try Hamilton, Alonso, Grandal, Wood, and Box/Lotzkar -- Alonso's a lot more valuable than Frazier. The Reds would probably have to give up another promising young guy, someone like Yorman Rodriguez. Needless to say, it's going to take a lot to get Felix, especially considering he wouldn't just be a one-year rental like most trade targets.

[Reds1]

The Reds seem to be turning the corner and I was just thinking that if Homer can get to where he was picthing he is right there with Cueto and an awesome 1-2 punch to go against the other great arms listed in the article on this post. The amazing thing is that Arroyo is probably not even the 3rd starter on this team - had a bad year. I think this might be his last year as a Red. LIke the possible 1-2 punch to go with the highest scoring team and one of the best defenses in the league. It's been a tough year, but only 2.5 out and the tough part of schedule almost over - I think it's time they make a run.

[bucksfan2]

Re major trades:

Felix may be one of the best pitches in the game but the packages that are being put together are a little too high if you ask me. Look at two of the best pitches recently to be traded with at least a season left on their contract. Both Cliff Lee and Johan Santana were traded for less than stellar prospects. At the time you could have made the argument that both were the best at their respective positions. Now Felix does have age on his side but I don't think it will take the farm in order to get either one.

I heard an interview with Jonah Keri (author of The Extra 2%) on the Brian Kenny Show last night. He made a point that the days of Bartolo Colon for Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, and Grady Sizemore are gone. He doesn't think you will ever see as many top rated prospects traded in one package again.

FWIW Jonah Keri has written for ESPN, fangraphs, baseball perspective, cnnsi, WSJ, The New York Times, etc.