Worst Thing That Happened Was Winning Division In 2010

[bshall2105]

Three weeks ago Aroldis Chapman was being called a bust and the worst signing of the Jocketty era. Now people want him to come into a one run game in the 9th inning? You don't know what you're going to get out of Chapman coming in with runners on base in a high pressure situation, instead of taking a risk he decided to stick with the most reliable reliever we have had this season. It is hard to fault him for that.

Originally Posted by FireDusty

The good ones.

Maybe Rivera gets a pass there and Girardi sticks with, but even Girardi would be tempted when he saw that his closer had nothing. Lets not forget, no team in the history of baseball has ever had the option of a left hander who has thrown the fastest recorded pitch ever. We do, and he didn't even pick up a ball. He didn't even have his jacket off.

Pretty unique situation. Hard to determine who would do what with their closer in that situation because noone in the history of the sport has ever had a guy sitting in the bullpen like the Reds do.

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If Dusty pulled the closer and put in a rookie with an ERA of 5.00 (Chapman) and lost the game I am sure you would not have questioned the move. You HATE Dusty, plain and simple. How do you know what Joe Girardi would do? Absolutely ridiculous statement/

[ervinsm84]

fwiw, as much as i think bakers a terrible manager and even in the bottom 10% of major league managers, rarely does the managers decisions have any true "huge impact" over the course of the season on the teams win total. Generally a terrible manager, when everything is added up at the end of the year, only costs a team 1 or 2 games, and rarely passes 3.

good article discussing this
http://www.azsnakepit.com/2010/1/22/...all-managers-a

excerpt:

In terms of games won or lost per year, how much difference do you think a good manager now makes over a bad one?
In general, a few/couple games. Most managers aren’t that wildly different from each other. That said, it could potentially be more.

Well, sort of. What I mean is that a manager can be worth more based on how he interacts with the team. In and of himself he isn’t worth more than what I said above, but he can make a substantially larger impact than that. Get the right man in the right situation, and you can see a Billy Martin-esque improvement. Alternately, the wrong man in the wrong slot can kill a team.

[FireDusty]

Originally Posted by BAKER12

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If Dusty pulled the closer and put in a rookie with an ERA of 5.00 (Chapman) and lost the game I am sure you would not have questioned the move. You HATE Dusty, plain and simple. How do you know what Joe Girardi would do? Absolutely ridiculous statement/

I disagree.

[FireDusty]

Originally Posted by ervinsm84

fwiw, as much as i think bakers a terrible manager and even in the bottom 10% of major league managers, rarely does the managers decisions have any true "huge impact" over the course of the season on the teams win total. Generally a terrible manager, when everything is added up at the end of the year, only costs a team 1 or 2 games, and rarely passes 3.

good article discussing this
http://www.azsnakepit.com/2010/1/22/...all-managers-a

excerpt:

I disagree.

[R_Webb18]

chapman is also wild sometimes and could just throw 4 balls

[ervinsm84]

Originally Posted by FireDusty

I disagree.

thanks for the explanation. as i said, i think dustys terrible and agree he should go. Still doesnt change that hes not the biggest problem, issue, and has no where near the impact on the game that youd like to believe in comparison to whoever else would be making decisions in his place. And really, the most intangible subjective part of evaluating a managers worth is how he manages the personalities and players, and from just about every report ive read, he seems to be loved on this front.


Are you familiar with the idea of WAR?

An MVP all time super season is gonna be worth ~9-11 WAR in a season.

an "average" every day starting position guy is around 2 WAR.

Im really sposed to believe that a manager can have a greater WAR than a legit starting player?

[FireDusty]

Originally Posted by R_Webb18

chapman is also wild sometimes and could just throw 4 balls

I think you have the manage to the situation. Coco did not have anything from his first pitch. He's been very good this year & I'm not suggecting we remove him from the closer role. I am suggesting that Dusty should have had Chapman ready to go.

With all the heart attackes Coco has caused over the last couple years, noone would have faulted Baker for going to Chapman against 2 lefthanders.

Chapmans slider against Fielder = game over. Chapman has been lights out since returning. I think Chapman gave us the best chance to get the final out.

[FireDusty]

Originally Posted by ervinsm84

Im really sposed to believe that a manager can have a greater WAR than a legit starting player?

In Dusty's case, yes. It's not just bad strategy in games, it's personel decisions.

I truly believe that Dave Sappelt would be a huge fan favorite right now if he were on this club. I truly believe that Drew Stubbs needs, at the very least, to be removed as an every single day player & maybe even sent to AAA for a while. I truly believe that Scott Rolen should have been moved to 6th in the lineup to start the year, not after 179 games with 8 homeruns from the cleanup spot. I truly believe that Todd Frazier should have already been here and already been worked into a rotation at 3rd Base with Scotty. I truly believe that Jonny Gomes is not a legitament everyday national league player and that Chris Heisey, if given the everyday job and the patience shown to birth right Bruce and birth right Stubbs, would have 15 to 20 homeruns right now. I truly believe that it should not have taken an intervention to get Cosart called up.

All of these mistakes with personel, plus in game strategy that has been called out by ex-players, ex-managers & announcers on a regualr basis, add up to a manager that has had a profoundly negative affect on this years team.

In my opinion, the Reds won 91 games last year because of miraculous come backs and last at bat wins.

Now that the Reds are having to win in a more conventional way, Dusty Baker is showing why he was run out of 2 cities and is now on his way out of a 3rd.

[ervinsm84]

its not like dusty has free reign on if sappelt comes up. Pretty sure that Walt trumps him on that either way. Same thing with when cozart came up and if/when frazier will.

maybe dusty has something in his contract that i didnt know about, but afaik the GM was responsible for personnel decisions

[FireDusty]

Originally Posted by ervinsm84

its not like dusty has free reign on if sappelt comes up. Pretty sure that Walt trumps him on that either way. Same thing with when cozart came up and if/when frazier will.

maybe dusty has something in his contract that i didnt know about, but afaik the GM was responsible for personnel decisions

Do you really believe that it didn't take Walt Jockerty having a closed door meeting with Dusty to get Cosart called up?

Really?

It takes Dustry ions to admit when he is wrong. It takes an intervention to get him to see even the most obvious things.

Jockerty forced Cosart onto this team against Bakers wishes. I gaurantee it.

[ervinsm84]

i highly doubt that if the GM was sold on cozart a month ago, and that if he really wanted cozart there then, that he didnt have the authority to tell Dusty that Cozarts coming up and to play him whether he likes it or not.

[NatiWolfpack24]

I can't wait until Dusty is fired and then you guys see how bad this team really gets. You'll be begging for him back. Be careful what you wish for. Throwing your manager under the bus the year after he won the division. Totally classless move by the OP and some of you so called Reds fans. Sports fan these days are a bunch of spoiled little punk ass *****es who wouldn't know the game of baseball if it walked up and ***** slapped them in the face. Ridiculous threads like this are allowed to go unchecked.

[gilpdawg]

Originally Posted by FireDusty

Ummm, we have a left hander....ummm....who has thrown the fastest pitch in the history of the game.(that only dates back into the 1860's, sorry for the poor sample size) ummm...sorry....I'll calm down......sitting in the bullpen...who didn't even warm up.

Umm...that's how it's Dusty's fault.

Cordero made the pitch he needed to make to McGehee. He just hit a crappy little dribbler. Bad break. That should have been an out. That's the play that cost us. If that play is made we likely go to extras.

You could say get Chapman ready for Fielder but they pitched around him anyway, and Chapman may not be ready for that spot after his recent "issues."

You're mad about the wrong part of the game. You should be mad that Leake was left in too long. You can't pull Cordero there. No manager in baseball pulls their closer there. Should they? Probably. But they don't. That's just the way the "book" is. I didn't write the "book" and I don't agree with it, but no other manager plays that any differently. I didn't see Axford get pulled last night when the Reds were hitting line drives all over the field. He was lucky to get through that. It's just not done.

Oh, and it's Jocketty, not Jockerty.