How long can we say "It will even out?" - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

LexRedsFan · 07-09-2011, 02:40 AM

The optimists (me included) have been saying for weeks on end it seems that our luck would finally turn in close games, that Heisey would get to a bloop hit by Damon, or a line drive off a pitcher won't fall straight to a second basemen for an odd 1-4 lineout.

We say the Cards are running on fumes with all their injuries, Berkman's age, and they will come back down to Earth.
We say the Pirates aren't for real, they're too young, and they're still the Pirates.
We say the Brewers' bullpen sucks, and they can't win on the road.

But ultimately, I've got to ask you this....when do we need to realize we maybe just aren't as good as we thought? We're 44-46, and in FOURTH PLACE in the ever mediocre NL Central. As somebody on ORG put it, if we concede that 88 wins will win our division, we need to go 44-29..or a roughly .600 clip. Have we seen anything in this team that indicates this is doable?

The frustration of losing these close games has almost been the straw that breaks the camel's back. Maybe we really are just a .500 team.

gilpdawg · 07-09-2011, 06:05 AM

This team is fascinating to watch from a sabermetric perspective.

3rd best Run Differential in the NL. 1st in the NL Central, and 7th in all of MLB.

3rd in the NL in wOBA, tied for 3rd in OPS.

Yet it seems the offense is bad most of the time. Make sense of that.

This year's Reds could be one of those weird outliers that make the saber guys look bad. Sort of like the D-Backs of 2008 in reverse, who hung in the race until late in the year and had no business doing so.

Or, they could go on a tear and prove all the saber guys right. Heck, in the Fangraphs chats, all those guys are still picking the Reds to win the division.

I believe in sabermetrics almost all the time, but I do know there are sometimes oddities that occur that don't make sense. Not that often, but they do. I hope this Reds team isn't one of those oddities.

bornready · 07-09-2011, 10:41 AM

I would guess that if it were to even out, it will be after the all-star break. Yes, they should have won many more games in the past month, but they just can't put together an entire team effort for the win for whatever reason. But looking at the schedule, it gets SOOOO much easier after the break. I'm talking games against the Cubs, the Astros, games that we should, and really HAVE to win. I was kind of worried about the Pirates pulling away from us, but then I looked at their schedule. They can't play the Astros and Cubs all season, but we've got them coming up, so I look for a rise in the standings.

It's a 162 game season, and we're just getting through the toughest part of the schedule.

webbbj · 07-09-2011, 12:56 PM

the reds just have to keep it close until august. winning the next 2 would be huge and a reasonable task.

i refuse to make stupid posts like a lot pple saying the reds are out of it when they are only 4 games out in a weak division. if they win the next 2 and split their 2 games out.

kyred14 · 07-09-2011, 02:10 PM

You have to believe at some point they will start winning a ton of close games to get to their pythag.

Or I guess they just start getting blown out on a regular basis.

I think I will go with the former. *figgers crossed*

LexRedsFan · 07-09-2011, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kyred14

You have to believe at some point they will start winning a ton of close games to get to their pythag.

Or I guess they just start getting blown out on a regular basis.

I think I will go with the former. *figgers crossed*

I believe(d?) it too. The schedule gives me hope. But at some point, I keep thinking we're going to hit that hot streak and it won't matter...because someone in front of us will too. The good thing with so many teams ahead of us is they play each other and one has to lose...but one also has to win.

nux fan · 07-09-2011, 04:42 PM

mismanaged teams dont win close games

Stray · 07-09-2011, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nux fan

mismanaged teams dont win close games

Or teams with players who aren't performing when it matters most.

I don't even think you can really single people out or you'd have to mention the entire team. Who hasn't screwed up in a crucial moment for us this year? I can't think of one.

kyred14 · 07-09-2011, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nux fan

mismanaged teams dont win close games

Well, I guess they should bring back last year's manager. Oh yeah......

Girevik · 07-09-2011, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LexRedsFan

The optimists (me included) have been saying for weeks on end it seems that our luck would finally turn in close games, that Heisey would get to a bloop hit by Damon, or a line drive off a pitcher won't fall straight to a second basemen for an odd 1-4 lineout.

This road trip has officially flipped my switch from "optimist" to "pessimist". This team is in trouble and I don't think they'll contend without making a move. The frustrating thing is that with the talent they have, they should have the ammo to make the move they need. I'll be really ticked if I start seeing players they need go to other teams.

Vottomatic · 07-10-2011, 09:03 AM

They won a weak division last year and it showed by getting swept by the mighty Phillies.

The division is still weak but slightly better, and that's why the mediocre Reds are struggling.

This team needs to add a legit 4-hole hitter.

07-09-2011, 02:40 AM	#1
LexRedsFan Moderator Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: Lexington, KY Posts: 364	How long can we say "It will even out?" The optimists (me included) have been saying for weeks on end it seems that our luck would finally turn in close games, that Heisey would get to a bloop hit by Damon, or a line drive off a pitcher won't fall straight to a second basemen for an odd 1-4 lineout. We say the Cards are running on fumes with all their injuries, Berkman's age, and they will come back down to Earth. We say the Pirates aren't for real, they're too young, and they're still the Pirates. We say the Brewers' bullpen sucks, and they can't win on the road. But ultimately, I've got to ask you this....when do we need to realize we maybe just aren't as good as we thought? We're 44-46, and in FOURTH PLACE in the ever mediocre NL Central. As somebody on ORG put it, if we concede that 88 wins will win our division, we need to go 44-29..or a roughly .600 clip. Have we seen anything in this team that indicates this is doable? The frustration of losing these close games has almost been the straw that breaks the camel's back. Maybe we really are just a .500 team.

07-09-2011, 06:05 AM	#2
gilpdawg Section 525-Saturdays. Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: New Paris, OH Posts: 1,977	Re: How long can we say "It will even out?" This team is fascinating to watch from a sabermetric perspective. 3rd best Run Differential in the NL. 1st in the NL Central, and 7th in all of MLB. 3rd in the NL in wOBA, tied for 3rd in OPS. Yet it seems the offense is bad most of the time. Make sense of that. This year's Reds could be one of those weird outliers that make the saber guys look bad. Sort of like the D-Backs of 2008 in reverse, who hung in the race until late in the year and had no business doing so. Or, they could go on a tear and prove all the saber guys right. Heck, in the Fangraphs chats, all those guys are still picking the Reds to win the division. I believe in sabermetrics almost all the time, but I do know there are sometimes oddities that occur that don't make sense. Not that often, but they do. I hope this Reds team isn't one of those oddities.

07-09-2011, 10:41 AM	#3
bornready Member Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 49	Re: How long can we say "It will even out?" I would guess that if it were to even out, it will be after the all-star break. Yes, they should have won many more games in the past month, but they just can't put together an entire team effort for the win for whatever reason. But looking at the schedule, it gets SOOOO much easier after the break. I'm talking games against the Cubs, the Astros, games that we should, and really HAVE to win. I was kind of worried about the Pirates pulling away from us, but then I looked at their schedule. They can't play the Astros and Cubs all season, but we've got them coming up, so I look for a rise in the standings. It's a 162 game season, and we're just getting through the toughest part of the schedule.

07-09-2011, 12:56 PM	#4
webbbj Member Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 855	Re: How long can we say "It will even out?" the reds just have to keep it close until august. winning the next 2 would be huge and a reasonable task. i refuse to make stupid posts like a lot pple saying the reds are out of it when they are only 4 games out in a weak division. if they win the next 2 and split their 2 games out.

07-09-2011, 02:10 PM	#5
kyred14 Member Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Danville, KY Posts: 928	Re: How long can we say "It will even out?" You have to believe at some point they will start winning a ton of close games to get to their pythag. Or I guess they just start getting blown out on a regular basis. I think I will go with the former. figgers crossed

07-09-2011, 04:42 PM	#7
nux fan Member Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 654	Re: How long can we say "It will even out?" mismanaged teams dont win close games

07-10-2011, 09:03 AM	#11
Vottomatic All work and no play..... Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Lebanon Posts: 6,787	Re: How long can we say "It will even out?" They won a weak division last year and it showed by getting swept by the mighty Phillies. The division is still weak but slightly better, and that's why the mediocre Reds are struggling. This team needs to add a legit 4-hole hitter. __________________ "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic. "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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