Has Votto made a mistake?

[nemesis]

In the Volquez thread replying to another post it got me thinking... Did Votto make a mistake in turning down a LTC?

Not that Votto isn't easily the best player on the team, because he is. But there has been a big drop off from last year to this year in terms of SLG%... What if last year was a abberation in terms of power? What if he hits more like Sean Casey and less like Albert?

Just playing a little devils advocate...

[camisadelgolf]

I don't think Votto cares as much about the money as he does about playing in a place where he wants to be. In 2013, if the Reds are still losing more than they're winning--even if Votto is slugging "only" .480--I think he made the right choice.

[edabbs44]

Even if he did, he would be looking at a smaller monster contract where EV might be looking at journeyman status.

[PuffyPig]

Even with decrased power, Votto is walking so much he's not that similiar to Sean Casey.

.440 OBA and a .950 OPS is plenty good, especially when hitting is down this year.

[RedsManRick]

I was thinking the same thing yesterday. I don't think he'll fall in to Sean Casey territory; Casey never had the opposite field power Votto does and never had a season like last year. But I do think he's more of a 25-30 HR guy than a 35-40 one.

What I can't believe is how he's sustained his crazy BABIP. Of players since 2008 with at least 1,200 PA, Joey's .357 BABIP is the best in baseball. That's higher than Joe Mauer. Much higher than Albert Pujols.

I think Joey is more like, say, Matt Holliday than Manny Ramirez. But in either case, if he keeps hitting .300/.400/.500, I don't think he'll have any trouble getting paid in FA. I think key for Votto is his age. He's going to be 30 when he hits FA. If he had taken a 6 or 7 year deal from the Reds, not only would those FA years be under market value most likely, but he would have been positioned to hit FA for a second time in his mid 30's. In a perfect world he'd still be cruising and could get 3 or 4 more years. But that's a long way off. But this way, he'll still be in his prime and should be able to land that maximum value deal in to his late 30s.

[oneupper]

Votto did fine. He'll get a great contract after this one, even if its not a huge one.
This contract will pay him enough for him to not have to worry about money ever again.
His options about where he plays will be open for him come 2014. There will be no shortage of teams vying for his services.

Volquez, on the other hand, should be kicking himself and his agent.

[CTA513]

Unless he gets hurt badly he'll get paid pretty well by someone after his current contract is up.

[steig]

I think Votto has made a mistake. He had a career year and then did not want to sign a long term deal with the Reds. I believe his past stress issues have completely eliminated Boston or any New York team from being interested in him. Plus a lot of the big spenders are already getting first basemen signed to long term deals: Gonzalez, Texeria, Albert will go somewhere, and Fielder will sign someplace. If he only hits 20 homers and hits in the low 300s the next couple of years there will be a big difference in his contract compared to a 35 - 40 homer guy who hits in the 350s.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by steig

I think Votto has made a mistake. He had a career year and then did not want to sign a long term deal with the Reds. I believe his past stress issues have completely eliminated Boston or any New York team from being interested in him. Plus a lot of the big spenders are already getting first basemen signed to long term deals: Gonzalez, Texeria, Albert will go somewhere, and Fielder will sign someplace. If he only hits 20 homers and hits in the low 300s the next couple of years there will be a big difference in his contract compared to a 35 - 40 homer guy who hits in the 350s.

Add in his pace of 120 walks or so and you have an elite hitter.

And who is this 40 HR guy who hits in the .350's?

[cincinnati chili]

Originally Posted by steig

I believe his past stress issues have completely eliminated Boston or any New York team from being interested in him.

I'll take that bet, especially with the Yankees. If Steinbrenner is going to overrule Cashman and allow the signing of a headcase like Rafael Soriano as the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera, then neither team is going to turn down the opportunity to sign one of the best hitters in baseball simply because he had to take a medical leave several years earlier.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by cincinnati chili

I'll take that bet, especially with the Yankees. If Steinbrenner is going to overrule Cashman and allow the signing of a headcase like Rafael Soriano as the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera, then neither team is going to turn down the opportunity to sign one of the best hitters in baseball simply because he had to take a medical leave several years earlier.

I just can't picture Votto in pinstripes. Now I'm not saying he won't go to greener (pun intended) pastures, but perhaps like Cliff Lee...he seems like the type that isn't a Yankee, and knows it.

[cincinnati chili]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I just can't picture Votto in pinstripes. Now I'm not saying he won't go to greener (pun intended) pastures, but perhaps like Cliff Lee...he seems like the type that isn't a Yankee, and knows it.

You may be right that he doesn't want to go there. I was reacting to the implication that the Yankees and Red Sox wouldn't want Votto because he's emotionally fragile. Thanks poppycock.

[REDREAD]

Let's just say for the sake of argument that last year was the best year that Votto is ever going to have.

Votto was smart enough to sign a contract through his arb years that will give him plenty of money to live off of if he has a career ending injury tommorrow.

In contrast, Volquez was clearly on the bubble in terms of even having an average career, and he turned down 21 million dollars of guaranteed money, thinking he could do better. It's going to cost Volquez money as early as next year. Volquez had a chance to be paid comparable to Cueto without having nearly as much success, yet turned it down (Thankfully).