The Math Behind Being 5.5 Out With Four Three Teams in Front of You

[Edskin]

Being 5.5 out is not a good thing at this point in the season; especially when you are in the worst division in baseball. But it's not insurmountable by any means.

But being 5.5 out and needing to jump THREE teams? That's tough. Just think about it... Let's say the Reds win 8 of 10, and Pitt and STL lose 7 of 10. Well we caught those two teams... But what if MIL is on hot streak? We could win 8 of 10 and still find ourselves 4-5 games out. And those are extreme examples.

Seriously, what are the chances that the Reds SIGNIFICANTLY outplay all three of those teams over the next two months?

We haven't won back to back games IN OVER A MONTH and we are talking about still being "in it?"

Here we are again needing a win to simply break even in a six game stretch where we thought we'd make up some ground--- and even if we win tomorrow the Pirates would still be one game better than us than they were a week ago.

This season and this team are going the wrong direction. Three weeks ago I would have told you I wouldn't be shocked if the Reds rallied and won the division, but now, I'd be stunned.

I don't care if they trade vets or not, but trying to make a deal in desperation of helping us rally at this point would be foolish. If we are going to deal Mes, Wood, Yonder, etc it should be at a time when the team has a real chance to win something. This team has had their chance. I hate to say it, I really do, because I was jazzed for this season just like most of you, but I believe the 2011 Reds are toast.

[WVRedsFan]

Well said, Edskin, but if you can get a Jiminez or Beltran for the future (and I realize Beltran would be pretty much a rental), why not? At least it would keep fannies in the seats which might be a problem from here on out.

[Kc61]

Reds should still try and deal.

But no rentals for this season. Only get signed players.

And don't trade Mes.

[Edskin]

I'm OK if they saw a deal for Jimmenez or someone like that that can help in 2012-13. That's fine. But a guy like Beltran makes zero sense at this point.

And I really don't think it would help with the fanbase either. "Hey, it's July 28th and we are eight games behind the Pirates, but we have Beltran, so let's go!" I don't see it.

Walt rolled the dice a bit that we could put it all together again this year with few changes to the roster while holding all of our young pieces. That gamble is not paying off this year. I think you lick your wounds and live to fight next year rather than desperately trying to make something happen in 2011.

[OldXOhio]

Originally Posted by Edskin

Walt rolled the dice a bit that we could put it all together again this year with few changes to the roster while holding all of our young pieces. That gamble is not paying off this year. I think you lick your wounds and live to fight next year rather than desperately trying to make something happen in 2011.

Well said.

[OldXOhio]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Reds should still try and deal.

But no rentals for this season. Only get signed players.

And don't trade Mes.

By dealing, does that include selling off Ramon, Coco and Gomes if someone would take him?

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by OldXOhio

By dealing, does that include selling off Ramon, Coco and Gomes if someone would take him?

Sure. Trade off veterans with no future on the ballclub. And trade off prospects except for Mesoraco.

This is all about next year. Stock up with new players who will be signed, healthy, available, and good next year.

[Caveat Emperor]

History tells you that winning 90+ games is a pretty sure indicator of making the playoffs -- regardless of who or what is in front of you. The issue isn't how many teams are ahead of the Reds, the issue is whether or not this team can achieve a 90 win season.

What PIT, MIL, and STL do is pretty irrelevant (other than the fact that they play the Reds from time to time).

[757690]

Around this time...

2010 - Giants - 4 games back, 4th place
2009 - Rockies - 9 games back, 3rd place
2008 - Brewers - 6 games back, 3rd place
2007 - Phillies - 6 games back, 3rd place

4 playoff appearances, two World Series appearances, and one World Series championship between those teams. I could make a much longer list if given the time.

[WVRedsFan]

Originally Posted by Edskin

Walt rolled the dice a bit that we could put it all together again this year with few changes to the roster while holding all of our young pieces. That gamble is not paying off this year. I think you lick your wounds and live to fight next year rather than desperately trying to make something happen in 2011.

That an a flawed belief that Janish could be a MLB shortstop and that Volquez was a No. 1 starter. Both blew up in his face. He also gambled that Gomes would pick up where he left on last year and that Bruce would mature into Ken Griffey Jr. Nope, didn't happen. That is one heck of a lot of gambles and it's really bad luck that none of them worked out, so...

Volquez reverted back to his former days, Janish proved he could not cut it day after day, Gomes did what he always does in his third year...nothing, and Bruce continued his streaky hitting. In the meantime, no moves were made and the Reds find themselves behind the 8-ball.

I'm with you. If we move anyone, let's move spare parts (we can start with Gomes, Lewis, Volquez, Renteria, and maybe lesser prospects. If he can get a half season of Beltran for no money and some minor prospects, fine. if not, pass. I want to keep Alonso because Joey isn't long for Cincinnati. I want to keep Francisco because Scotty Rolen is showing his age. I want to keep Mes because you never have enough good catchers, I want to keep Sappy because I feel he's ready. I'd deal Heisey in a heartbeat, but nothing more. But watching this mess is messing with my brain. Enough gambling, Walt. Do something even if it's a little crazy.

WAIT! No. No. The last time a Reds GM went a little crazy we ended up losing Josh Hamilton, getting Edinson Volquez, Francisco Codero, Dusty Baker and Cory Patterson. Stay conservative, Walt. please...

[Edskin]

Originally Posted by 757690

Around this time...

2010 - Giants - 4 games back, 4th place
2009 - Rockies - 9 games back, 3rd place
2008 - Brewers - 6 games back, 3rd place
2007 - Phillies - 6 games back, 3rd place

4 playoff appearances, two World Series appearances, and one World Series championship between those teams. I could make a much longer list if given the time.

Out of curiosity... How many of those teams were under .500 at that time?

[oregonred]

The 2010 Giants were 51-42 on this date in 2010, 4 games behind the Padres. However, the Giants were a really good team with a +70 run differential. Scratch that example...

[oregonred]

On July 12, 2008 the Brewers were 51-44 and six games behind the Cubs. However the Brewers were only .5 games out of the WC chase behind the Cardinals.

The wild card is not an option for the NL Central in 2011, the Braves are a virtual lock.

An interesting case, but the Brewers were a winning team and in the WC chase. The 2011 Reds are neither.

[westofyou]

7-20-2003 Cubs were 4.5 back 49-48 with plus 7 in RS. They won the division

[oregonred]

On July 19, 2009 the Rockies were 50-42 and 8 games behind the Dodgers. The Rockies had a +51 run differential and were only .5 games out of the Wild Card slot. Similar example to the Brewers. Good team, won the wild card.

So far the Reds case is nowhere close to these three teams.

However the Phillies example is close. They were 47-48 on July 19, 2007 and 6 games behind the Mets and 6.5 out of the wild card. They only had a +4 differential. They won the division at 89-73 (42-25 run). It took a lot of stars to align, but it happened...