Brandon Phillips back batting first

[jojo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Tough to say. I would offer him the money to keep him, even though I am not sure he will be worth it. My reasoning is this: If we overpay but still get solid overall production, I can eat a little bit of money there. But if we let him walk and can't land the right guy in free agency to replace him, we don't have anyone in the system to step in right now and take his spot and we are very likely to take a large step backwards there. Give him the money for 2012 and see how things play out on the farm or via trade for a replacement. I would NOT extend him though. Wouldn't even think about it.

It's probably a certainty that the Reds pick up Phillips' option. Not because of his bat.... because of his glove.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by jojo

It's probably a certainty that the Reds pick up Phillips' option. Not because of his bat.... because of his glove.

I agree completely, but that is also why I wouldn't extend him. His value comes from his glove and he is going to be on the wrong side of 30 for his entire new contract that someone is going to give him. Pick up the option for 2012 and be searching for a replacement starting yesterday.

[klw]

His stats over the last 4 years would seem to say, stick Brandon in the 2 spot and leave him there.


2011

By Batting Order	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Batting #1	        5	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.200	.200	.200	.400
Batting #2	        236	38	69	16	0	5	25	13	3	29	4	2	.292	.336	.424	.760
Batting #4	        216	25	58	10	1	5	37	16	3	28	3	6	.269	.321	.394	.715

2010

By Batting Order	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Batting #1	        315	41	79	11	5	8	33	18	5	42	5	4	.251	.302	.394	.696
Batting #2	        180	35	55	15	0	5	9	15	2	22	7	4	.306	.364	.472	.836
Batting #3	        34	7	14	1	0	1	4	4	0	4	3	0	.412	.474	.529	1.003
Batting #4	        88	11	21	5	0	3	10	7	0	13	1	3	.239	.295	.398	.693

Here are 2008-2010

By Batting Order	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Batting #1	        315	41	79	11	5	8	33	18	5	42	5	4	.251	.302	.394	.696
Batting #2	        190	35	56	15	0	5	9	15	2	23	7	4	.295	.351	.453	.804
Batting #3	        234	34	63	12	3	5	30	20	2	27	13	4	.269	.327	.410	.737
Batting #4	        1012	140	274	48	9	39	159	73	9	156	38	18	.271	.322	.452	.774

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits...andon-phillips

[REDREAD]

Phillips is probably the best option for leadoff we have.
He doesn't have the greatest OBP, but his power helps to make up for it.

If the Reds want to play Sappelt too, it really doesn't matter IMO if Sappelt bats 1 or 2.

I admire Phillips a lot. No one can accuse him of not caring.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Phillips isn't a lead off hitter. Phillips isn't a clean up hitter. Phillips is a 6th or 7th hitter.

He shouldn't bat leadoff because his OBP isn't that good.
He shouldn't bat clean up because, well, lets be honest, he isn't that good of a hitter.

He's nearly ideal for the No. 2-hole. Good contact rate, good speed. Gets on base a sufficient amount.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

He's nearly ideal for the No. 2-hole. Good contact rate, good speed. Gets on base a sufficient amount.

I don't really know. His numbers in the two spot would be ideal if he were able to repeat them there. I just don't know if he would be able to and I am not sure his overall numbers say "ideal #2 hitter".

[Tom Servo]

I've always liked BP in the #2 spot as well.

[mattfeet]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

I admire Phillips a lot. No one can accuse him of not caring.

Agreed. No one else is stepping up...glad to see he is.

-Matt

[Guacarock]

3 for 4 tonight with a walk on top of that. He's motivated!

[Orenda]

I like Phillips hitting 1 or 2 better than in the middle of the lineup, 2nd wouldn't bother me because it would keep Renteria and Janish behind the run producers. I think hitting Bruce 3rd and Votto could be an option as well, Votto will protect Bruce more than Bruce or anybody else has been able to protect Votto. Also if you can find a high OBP leadoff guy to go along with Bruce 3rd with his on-base ability, Joey Votto would be looking at a lot of run producing opportunities. Just Saying

[alloverjr]

Based on what's available right now, I don't mind Phillips leading off. I'd however bat Bruce 2nd and Votto 3rd. IMO, Votto's not getting pitched to because he has no one to protect him in the lineup, but rather because he's forever coming up with the bases empty and 2 outs. Same reason I like Bruce in the 2 spot. I hate predefined roles. The second hitter's job shouldn't be to bunt or hit behind a runner (handles the bat well!), but rather get on base for your 3 hitter who (there's that role again!) is presumably the best hitter on the team.

Now, if the Reds were somehow able to find a leadoff hitter in the offseason, I'd move Brandon down to 5th or 6th (or even 7th) depending on what 3B looks like.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't really know. His numbers in the two spot would be ideal if he were able to repeat them there. I just don't know if he would be able to and I am not sure his overall numbers say "ideal #2 hitter".

What about his numbers suggest a lack of being repeatable? I'd say his numbers have been remarkably consistent the last three seasons.

His OBP has been nearly identical, so too has his contact rates; his batting average nearly the same; his slugging has dropped a small bit, but for being a 2-hitter, that's not as important.

If anything, I think Phillips has been extremely consistent. I feel as if we know more about what we'll get out of him than any player on the Reds outside of Paul Janish and Joey Votto on extreme ends of the spectrum.

[GAC]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Phillips isn't a lead off hitter. Phillips isn't a clean up hitter. Phillips is a 6th or 7th hitter.

He shouldn't bat leadoff because his OBP isn't that good.
He shouldn't bat clean up because, well, lets be honest, he isn't that good of a hitter.

This. Brandon "it felt wrong not to swing" Phillips simply does not have the plate discipline.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am not sure his overall numbers say "ideal #2 hitter".

I'm with you on this one. There is a difference between a reasonable compromise for the Reds given the context of their roster (i.e. were there better options or not) and an "ideal" option.

Here's a statistical look at Phillips compared to his peers based upon average production across batting order over his career ranked by wOBA (a great metric for summarizing the overall offensive skill set of a hitter):

Order	         BA	OPB	SLG	OPS	wOBA	BABIP	K%	BB%	ISO
Batting 3rd	0.283	0.362	0.475	0.836	0.364	0.307	15.9	10.4	0.192
Batting 4th	0.278	0.358	0.483	0.841	0.363	0.301	17.2	10.5	0.205
Batting 5th	0.269	0.340	0.449	0.790	0.346	0.299	17.7	9.1	0.181
Batting 6th	0.264	0.331	0.432	0.763	0.336	0.298	18.0	8.3	0.167
Batting 1st	0.275	0.340	0.406	0.746	0.335	0.309	14.5	8.1	0.131
Batting 2nd	0.275	0.336	0.412	0.748	0.334	0.307	14.6	7.7	0.136
Phillips	0.269	0.318	0.428	0.746	0.324	0.289	14.2	5.9	0.159
Batting 7th	0.257	0.320	0.404	0.724	0.321	0.292	17.8	7.8	0.147
Batting 8th	0.249	0.316	0.378	0.694	0.306	0.288	18.0	8.2	0.129
Batting 9th	0.213	0.267	0.307	0.575	0.256	0.272	23.3	6.0	0.094

This comparison suggests that over his career, Phillips best fit the profile of an average #7 hitter given his poor on base skills and low walk rate. Over 600 PAs (roughly his average number per year), he's been .5 WAR below an average major league #2 hitter (i.e. .5 WAR/season below an average #2 hitter).

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by jojo

I'm with you on this one. There is a difference between a reasonable compromise for the Reds given the context of their roster (i.e. were there better options or not) and an "ideal" option.

Here's a statistical look at Phillips compared to his peers based upon average production across batting order over his career ranked by wOBA (a great metric for summarizing the overall offensive skill set of a hitter):

Order	         BA	OPB	SLG	OPS	wOBA	BABIP	K%	BB%	ISO
Batting 3rd	0.283	0.362	0.475	0.836	0.364	0.307	15.9	10.4	0.192
Batting 4th	0.278	0.358	0.483	0.841	0.363	0.301	17.2	10.5	0.205
Batting 5th	0.269	0.340	0.449	0.790	0.346	0.299	17.7	9.1	0.181
Batting 6th	0.264	0.331	0.432	0.763	0.336	0.298	18.0	8.3	0.167
Batting 1st	0.275	0.340	0.406	0.746	0.335	0.309	14.5	8.1	0.131
Batting 2nd	0.275	0.336	0.412	0.748	0.334	0.307	14.6	7.7	0.136
Phillips	0.269	0.318	0.428	0.746	0.324	0.289	14.2	5.9	0.159
Batting 7th	0.257	0.320	0.404	0.724	0.321	0.292	17.8	7.8	0.147
Batting 8th	0.249	0.316	0.378	0.694	0.306	0.288	18.0	8.2	0.129
Batting 9th	0.213	0.267	0.307	0.575	0.256	0.272	23.3	6.0	0.094

This comparison suggests that over his career, Phillips best fit the profile of an average #7 hitter given his poor on base skills and low walk rate. Over 600 PAs (roughly his average number per year), he's been .5 WAR below an average major league #2 hitter (i.e. .5 WAR/season below an average #2 hitter).

Although, the last 3 years have Phillips as a .332 wOBA