Off of The ORG: 2011 looking back, September callups and looking forward to 2012

[Vottomatic]

I thought about starting this thread at the end of the year, but with 7 players called up now seemed like a better time. It allows for some guessing for this month and what that might mean for next year.

Clearly 2011 was a disappointment. And as much as some want to blame Dusty, I'll heap more blame on Jocketty. Gomes and Lewis were not inspired signings, and though Lewis was very good off the bench, as a starter, well not so much. I've grown to really like Miguel Cairo. nice bat off the bench. Renteria? blech. I was one of those that thought Janish could handle SS. defensively? yes. but his bat has completely vanished even by his standards. Losing Cozart to TJ surgery was a big setback. fortunately it's his glove arm, so he's expected back to full baseball activity in about 2-3 months from now.

Another Walt failing was in how he handled Arroyo this year. Arroyo should have been DL'd with fatigue at some point. Probably twice in fact. LeCure could have handled a few spot starts, say three during each DL trip Arroyo would have made. It isn't like we don't KNOW mono can affect a persons energy levels for up to a year or more. Bronson's velocity is down, his FB is sitting at like 84-86 and is straight as a pin the few times I have seen him. I'd say this year's version of Arroyo cost the Reds 8 wins. He's been awful, he's untradeable, and he's not pitching like he's being paid.

Rolen broke down. Shocking that a 36 year old 3B with a chronic injury history might break down. And now a shoulder injury. ugh. He's done. Look, I like him. I think he should be the primary backup at 3B next year, with one of the kids handling the fulltime duties. But that ain't gonna happen. I'd say a .750ish OPS with excellent defense in about 120 games is the most we as fans can hope for realistically. In case you think he can do more, here is the list of 37 year old 3B and their numbers for 2010: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting...d/falseI'd hope everyone hopes someone beats him out for the job in 2012.

So here we sit. September 1. It's like spring training. Mesoraco, Sappelt, Heisey, Alonso, Frazier, Francisco. We all believe Mesoraco is the starter at C next year with Hernandez likely gone to FA. If so I see no real change in duties as far as PT goes. Dusty will use his two catchers in tandem. It works. Hanigan will get more starts than Mes in 2012. Mes gets to learn how to be a better receiver, better game caller and he eases in to life as a MLB player. If all goes well the roles reverse either by the ASB or the start of the 2013 season.

That leaves 5 guys at minimum vying for two spots. The best defender at 3B is Frazier. He may have the weakest bat of the three potential candidates to replace Rolen, but his overall value as a player might be the highest. Read some articles about Frazier from when he was with Dayton. He'll solidify a very good defense on the left side (Cozart is no Janish, but is still a good defender, Janish will likely be the backup at SS, 3B and 2B). He's been considered a clubhouse leader at every level. He's my choice to replace Rolen. He's the oldest prospect the Reds have with any shot to be a contributor, but I think his bat is underrated.

LF is problematic in that CF is a problem too. If the Reds think Sappelt is the guy, then Stubbs has to be dealt with. If they think it is Alonso or Francisco, then you can put Sappelt in CF. Heisey can man any of the three OF positions, and would be a good CF as well. Stubbs is the best defender out there. He's better than Bruce. His arm might be a tick under Jay's, but he more than makes up for it in range.

He just can't hit. He has the tools. He does not have the skills. The Reds have jerked him around so much he has no idea of how to hit. His power potential is that of a Jay Bruce. Did you know Stubbs was 3rd on the Reds in HR's last year? 4th in SLG among regulars, but 168 K's COUPLED with low walk total, 55 last year hurt his OBP. He's on pace for 212 K's and 59 BB's. he has 50 BB's now. I think 59 is optimistic. I don't care about the K's too much, but he needs to walk 80+ times a year. At least 80. He's hovering at a .700 OPS right now. Now ask yourself this: does Drew Stubbs, with a sub .700 OPS and a SB% at 81% have value even with his defense? He is on pace to score 100 runs, which is a testament to not only the guys hitting behind him, but his speed as well. Stubbs is in scoring position at 1B. Last year I called him Adam Dunn Lite. Lots of K's, about half Dunn's power, half his walks but with the ability to play defense. Does anyone remember that when Dunn came up he could steal a base? He never had Stubbs speed, but he did steal 19 bases his first full year. So does anyone know what kind of hitter Stubbs is supposed to be? Because the Reds damn sure don't.

It was clear the Reds were not in the race by the end of June. So why weren't they stretching Chapman out instead of getting him ready for more relief appearances? A healthy progressing Chapman in 2011 in the pen helps you win a few games. A healthy, progressing Chapman in Louisville, being stretched out as a starter helps you build a rotation beast for 2012 and beyond. The handling of Chapman was completely wrong IMO, and set back his true development by a year at least.

Edinson Volquez was rushed back. I think he pushed himself far too soon, too fast and the results show it. However, he has pitched very well at AAA over the last 2 months: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=450172 He's probably always going to be a high BB guy. He also K's more batters than any other Red.

Homer Bailey. The Big Tease. Over Homer's last 11 starts he has given up 5 runs or more 3 times. In the other 8 starts during that span he never gave up more than 3. He did something similar last year. in 2010 Bailey pitched 110 innings. He's on pace for 123 this year. He has trouble staying healthy. It would be nice to see what a healthy Homer Bailey can do.

Johnny Cueto. Ace.

Mike Leake. Enigma. He's the very definition of number 4 starter, yet i keep seeing people rave about him. I don't see it. He's touted as a GB pitcher. he's not. he's almost 50/50 on GB/FB this year, with the edge going to FB's. He's young, so he has upside.

So, looking ahead? crapshoot. But I'll tell you what i think it should be...

1B Votto - should be 2nd or 3rd in the MVP vote, IMO 2nd with Braun winning it.
2B Phillips - coming off his 3rd GG season
3B Frazier - He's the best fit, poised to take over as a leader on the field if/when Votto leaves. He's got the best glove after Rolen for the position and his bat will not hurt the Reds there.
SS Cozart - All we got was a taste. but in 36 AB's he has 1/3 of all the HR's hit by a Reds SS. Very good power throughout his professional career. I'll gladly take 15-20 HR's from my 8th hitting SS.
3B Hanigan/Mes - prolly a 60-40 split in 2012
RF Bruce - still waiting on that .900 OPS breakout. Could win a GG this year
CF Heisey - I was warming to Stubbs last year. even found myself defending him. But he regressed in his second season, and unless he learns what kind of hitter he is, his overall value keeps dropping.
LF Francisco - A lot will say Sappelt. Some might say Alonso. Heisey in CF would lead off. Francisco has a nice arm in LF, and off the charts power. He's LH and crushes RH pitching, something the Reds don't do enough. He's a better defender in LF than Alonso. A pregnant camel in a forest fire would be a better defender than Alonso.

SP Cueto
SP Willis - yep. I have him as a #2 starter 6 starts in August, 5 QS. He should have been 5-1, instead he was 0-3. I think he's back, maybe 85% of what he was, but he's been building on success. I see a sub 4.00 ERA next year.
SP Volquez - The only reason I have him at #3 is because I haven't seen him pitch with the Reds the way he's been pitching for the Bats. He'll get 3 starts this month I believe. He's a K machine. 85K's in 85 IP as a Red, 71K's in 80 1/3 IP as a Bat. 66 BB's as a Red, 27 as a Bat. If he's more the latter than the former next year... yes please.
SP Chapman - Just give me 100 innings.
SP Arroyo - He's tradeable at the deadline I think.


RP Bray LH
RP Maloney
RP Ondrusek
RP Burton
RP LeCure
RP Horst
CL Arredondo

with appearances by Gil (yes Gil) Boxberger, Fisher, Joseph (possibly. I think he'll be in AAA most of the year) and Christiani.

Now all this discounts any acquisitions. I won't guess as to who Jocketty and Co. are looking at. If he wants to sign Albert Pujols and move Votto to LF or Toronto for Jose Bautista and Brandon Morrow, I won't complain.

I think Alonso has no future as a Red. I think he's gone as soon as the Reds can find the right trading partner. I think 3B is Frazier or Francisco, and I prefer Frazier there, especially if Francisco can play LF. I prefer Heisey or Sappelt to Stubbs right now, but I wouldn't deal Stubbs with his stock this low. And if he can rebound to what he was last year, he's a top 5 CF in all of baseball. Phillips eventual replacement needs to be found. Sooner he's identified, the better. And I'd be thinking hard about what an over .500 finish for 2011 plus a division title in 2012 might mean regarding Joey Votto. Win the division next year and if he's the same Votto he was this year and last, his value is ridiculous regarding a trade or keeping him. It's almost like they can't lose either way.

2012 should be a fun season for Reds fans. - TRF

[Stray]

Going by what we have now, here is what I think.

1B - Votto
2B - Phillips
SS - Cozart
3B - Rolen/Francisco
C - Hanigan/Mes
LF - Alonso
CF - Stubbs
RF - Bruce

SP - Cueto
SP - Leake
SP - Bailey
SP - Chapman
SP - Arroyo

Bullpen I have no idea. I'm pretty sure Sun Deck would grow to hate Arredondo if he's the closer though lol. Backups I really dunno either...I'd like to keep Frazier around since he's so versatile and Cairo is obviously gonna be around.

[Vottomatic]

My complaint about this season is that I don't feel alot of questions were answered. And there are still alot of questions. I blame Dusty and Walt for that. Castellini may need to look at the relationship between Walt and Dusty and sort it all out. Because if there is a rift, it's not helping the organization. And clearly they weren't on the same page this past season.

I think the organization is headed in the right direction. But I do think ownership, the GM, and the manager on the field all had sub-par seasons, which probably contributed to less success on the field.

Questions?
1. I think you can pencil in Votto, Bruce, and Hanigan. But I do think if some team made a huge offer for Votto, the Reds would consider it.

2. Catching? How much does it affect Cueto, Volquez, and other latin pitchers to not have Ramon around anymore, and have to deal with Hanigan and Mesoraco? Will Dusty's penchant for playing veterans overwork Hanigan and waste Mesoraco's time up here?

3. Alonso? Where does he freakin' play? Dusty doesn't like him in LF. Rolen, Francisco, Frazier have a lock on 3B. Alonso seems like a longshot over there. If the Reds are going to deal Alonso (and I think they should), atleast he put up good offensive numbers in his end of season stint, which should increase his trade value. If he goes on to become the next Larry Walker-type bat.........the Reds may end up regretting this whole Alonso-Votto situation, especially if Votto walks in 2014.

4. Another question........Phillips? Phillips turned 30 years old thia past June 28th. He is the best defensive second baseman I've seen in my 46 years. His overall HR and SB numbers are on the decline. But he is hovering around .300 for the season, and his OPS is right around his career average, if not slightly higher. Do they just pick up his option, or do they extend him? I like Brandon. But the problem I see here, from media reports and Brandon's comments, is that he is looking at the Jay Bruce and Joey Votto extensions as comparisons, which I think is a mistake on BP's part. Jay Bruce turned 24 before the season. A 5 year contract takes him through his prime years to age 29. Votto, who turns 28 years old on September 10th, signed a 3 year deal taking him to age 29 (he will turn 30 in September of 2013). Again, he is in his prime years. BP is talking a long term contract. But is he past his prime? I think BP can put up solid numbers in the next 3 years. It would be the 4th and 5th years that would worry me. I think he has to factor in his age if he wants a long term deal. This should be interesting.

5. SS? Another big question. I liked what I saw from Cozart. But he is coming back from injury. I realize it's his glove hand, but still.........we don't know if he'll be completely the same or if it will take time to get back to being the same. He definitely has intangibles that Janish and Renteria don't bring to the table, such as power. His glove is solid, if not very good from what I saw. I'm in a different camp on Renteria. I was dogging him for most of the first half of the season. But I think he has had some very big hits in the second half of the season. But still not sure I bring him back.

6. Third base? Unlike Cozart, we will get to see Rolen again this season and see if the surgery helped at all. So possibly some questions regarding him can be answered this season. I have always liked Francisco and felt he didn't get much of a chance. I know he K's alot, but so does Stubbs, and he got a long leash. I wouldn't mind at all seeing Francisco (LH) and Rolen (RH) platoon next season.

7. LF. The ongoing question that never gets answered. I liked the idea of Sappelt leading off. But I like BP leading off too. If Sappelt could bat .300 consistently, I'd be all for him leading off. Good contact hitter. On the flipside, this team really needs a legit cleanup hitter, and this is the obvious position to acquire one. I don't see Bruce going anywhere, but I could see Stubbs being dealt. And there is the Heisey experiment. All the guy does is come up with big hits, but they never stick with him in LF for any amount of time. I realize his pinch hitting numbers are better than his starting numbers. But why do certain guys on this team get long leashes like Bruce, Stubbs, Janish, Gomes, etc.......and others like Heisey and Francisco don't?

8. Stubbs? Wouldn't surprise me to see him dealt, and then you see Heisey in CF next year, with a Matt Kemp or some other power hitter in LF.

9. Chapman? I wish he was already in Louisville being stretched out as a starter. I can't figure out if ownership is using him to sell tickets, or if the Reds are just that desperate for bullpen help? Maybe he is the closer of the future. Maybe not. One thing is for sure.......the Reds aren't telling us.

10. Bullpen? Cordero is more than likely gone. I can't say I feel completely comfortable with Masset and Ondrusek carrying the load. Closer by committee? Not a good idea with Dusty making the decisions, IMHO. I was hoping to see Boxberger up here. This area may need bolstered in the offseason.

11. Starting pitching? So many options, but so few answers. Arroyo should have been DL'ed at some point this season. Volquez never should have started opening day. Just a couple of examples of managerial/ownership stupidity this season. Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Leake, Volquez.................Corcino will be here in a few years hopefully. Other options in Lecure and Maloney. Chapman as a starter? Again, many questions, so few answered this season. We discovered Cueto is either an Ace or on the verge of being one. Leake is solid for the most part. Bailey either looks brilliant or sketchy. Hopefully Homer puts it together next season.

I'm hoping ownership replace Dusty. Maybe, just maybe, the easy ways of Baker aren't a good thing for this team, with his Den Mother attitude toward the players.

Remember how Pete Rose put together a pretty good team but finished 2nd alot? And then Lou came in and put it all together. I think this is one of those situations. Bring in the right manager and this team might get over the hump and surprise.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by Stray

Going by what we have now, here is what I think.

1B - Votto
2B - Phillips
SS - Cozart
3B - Rolen/Francisco
C - Hanigan/Mes
LF - Alonso
CF - Stubbs
RF - Bruce

SP - Cueto
SP - Leake
SP - Bailey
SP - Chapman
SP - Arroyo

Bullpen I have no idea. I'm pretty sure Sun Deck would grow to hate Arredondo if he's the closer though lol. Backups I really dunno either...I'd like to keep Frazier around since he's so versatile and Cairo is obviously gonna be around.

I don't think Alonso will be here and I don't see Chapman immediately in the starting rotation.