Who is Redszone's #4 prospect?

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Around here baserunning is deemed unimportant. That may be true for 98 percent of the players in the game.

Over the years, I have seen some baserunners dismantle the opposition by applying constant pressure. Yes, the player has to get on base. But top baserunning skill can be a very serious weapon.

It's rare. Hamilton may have it. I don't think we should overlook that.

Me personally I'm not overlooking it. But he has to be able to get on base to be that kind of factor, and I think a lot of us doubt his potential to do develop that skill...

[redsfandan]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

His major league floor is a Paul Janish type-- 240/300/300 with a ton of steals (50+) and above average defense, assuming he plays every day. (This assumes a modicum of improvement with the bat, no extra power, no leg injuries, and the career defensive arc of talented and erratic defense-first shortstops.

Has anyone ever done that before?

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

At his ceiling, he's a game-changer, a la Tim Raines. That's HOF level.

You're already talking about him like he's a potential HOF player? Really? (By the way, Raines isn't in the HOF.)

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by redsfandan

You're already talking about him like he's a potential HOF player? Really? (By the way, Raines isn't in the HOF.)

No, I said, at his ceiling, he's a HOF caliber player. There's a big difference between ceiling and likely player (Dee Gordon was the player I used). Jay Bruce has HOF potential. So does Joey Votto. Scott Rolen did as well. Aroldis Chapman does, too.

So, too, does Billy Hamilton.

And Tim Raines absolutely is a HOF player. Look at his numbers. He just hasn't been awarded that honor because the BBWA are pretty much stupid.

[fearofpopvol1]

I think Hamilton, while an interesting and fun guy to watch, has been way overvalued here by RZ.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I think Hamilton, while an interesting and fun guy to watch, has been way overvalued here by RZ.

[redsfandan]

Scrap Irony, this is what I don't get. And, please, let me know if I misunderstood you.

• You think that his major league floor is .240/.300/.300 ... with 50+ steals. (I'd still love to know if that's even ever happened before)

• You think he will have an outside shot at 8 war. (I checked fangraphs and, according to them, there were only four 8.0+ war players in 2011. All four had at least 21 homers. I don't think anyone expects Hamilton to have more than 5 homers in a mlb season, if even that many.)

• And you also said that at his ceiling, he's a HOF caliber player. (Despite not even playing above A ball yet.)

Now I don't think there's anyone that dislikes Hamilton. It's possible that he could end up as the Reds #1 prospect in a year and be a really good major league lead off hitter. I just don't think that's something we can say just yet though. And whether we're talking about the floor you're expecting, the ceiling, whatever, those are some really lofty expectations to place on a guy that hasn't played above A ball and has obvious things to work on.

[Will M]

i can't get too excited about Hamilton. he obviously has question marks and has yet to play above A ball. while i understand his upside there is a good chance he never succeeds in the bigs. i am of the 'wake me up when he has a 350 OPB in AA' mindset. now i am a bit like that with all prospects. i don't pay that much attention until they succeed in AA or really tear up A+. until then Hamilton is a guy to keep watching but i am not going to pencil him into the Reds lineup anytime soon.

my pick was Cozart. i think he is a major league starter at SS. not too shabby.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by redsfandan

Scrap Irony, this is what I don't get. And, please, let me know if I misunderstood you.

• You think that his major league floor is .240/.300/.300 ... with 50+ steals. (I'd still love to know if that's even ever happened before)

• You think he will have an outside shot at 8 war. (I checked fangraphs and, according to them, there were only four 8.0+ war players in 2011. All four had at least 21 homers. I don't think anyone expects Hamilton to have more than 5 homers in a mlb season, if even that many.)

• And you also said that at his ceiling, he's a HOF caliber player. (Despite not even playing above A ball yet.)

Now I don't think there's anyone that dislikes Hamilton. It's possible that he could end up as the Reds #1 prospect in a year and be a really good major league lead off hitter. I just don't think that's something we can say just yet though. And whether we're talking about the floor you're expecting, the ceiling, whatever, those are some really lofty expectations to place on a guy that hasn't played above A ball and has obvious things to work on.

1. Has it been done before?
Check out Michael Bourn in 2008. While he was close in steals, everything else matches. I didn't check beyond him, as that was the first guy I though of and he was close enough.

2. As to the 8.0 WAR:
Because of that speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths (and fangraphs ability to graph it), Hamilton will start out with 3.0 + WAR in his pocket that almost no one else will have. I don't know if you've ever seen him play live, but he is truly in a class by himself both in stealing bases and in running the bases. He turns outs into singles, singles into triples, and doubles into home runs. (And no, this isn't hyperbole.)

As an example of how baserunning WAR plays into the game, take a look at another speedster not quite in Hamilton's class, Elvis Andrus. The Ranger SS earned a 7.7 score in Speed on his way to a 4.5 WAR overall. This led the majors. That adds .77 to his overall WAR. Hamilton is faster, more aggressive, and just stole 66 more bases in less games in the minor leagues.

Defensively, Hamilton can again use his monster tools to earn major WAR points. Again, at his ceiling, he turns his 80 athleticism into Gold Glove defense. We've already discussed his elite (re: HOF) range and that he already gets to balls that other great fielders wave at. If he's a Gold Glove level SS, he'd earn what other players earn at that level. Alexi Ramirez earned an 11. That adds another 1.1 WAR to his ledger.

So far, he's at around 2.0 WAR and that's being conservative on his numbers.

Now, add in his speed while hitting. We're again talking about ceiling (the best of all outcomes)-- therefore, Hamilton masters the bunt game, a la Brett Butler (another speedster whom I compare to Hamilton). After figuring out how to bunt really, really well, Butler went from an average-ish BaBIP to one that regularly exceeded 340 and didn't dip below 328 until he was over 40 and had lost two or three steps. If Hamilton can harness that bunt-- with his speed-- he easily adds that extra 1.1 of WAR to make it to 3.0 WAR almost no one else has.

You add in the typical elite speedster progression-- and a season where hits fall and his BaBIP soars-- and a season of 8.0 WAR is certainly possible.

The problem here, IMO, isn't Hamilton so much as it's the definition of ceiling. Ceiling is if everything goes right. (I had this discussion one time five years or so ago on Redszone, IIRC.)

Because of his 80 tool (speed) and its effects, Hamilton could become a HOF player. It's very similar to Aroldis Chapman, in that he too has an 80 tool and an athleticism that allows him to repeat it.

3. This isn't about where they are now, dan. It's about where they could be projected when they hit the majors. (If they hit the majors.)

He has an 80 tool. Only a select few in the history of the game have a tool that high.

He has 80 athleticism. Only a select few in today's game have as much athleticism as does Hamilton

[redsfandan]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

1. Has it been done before?
Check out Michael Bourn in 2008. While he was close in steals, everything else matches. I didn't check beyond him, as that was the first guy I though of and he was close enough.

Yeah, Bourn was close but not close enough. Look, even if you can find some players that actually had a .240/.300/.300 line with 50+ steals I doubt it's going to be that often of an occurrence. And that's what you have for his major league floor.

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

2. As to the 8.0 WAR:
Because of that speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths (and fangraphs ability to graph it), Hamilton will start out with 3.0 + WAR in his pocket that almost no one else will have. I don't know if you've ever seen him play live, but he is truly in a class by himself both in stealing bases and in running the bases. He turns outs into singles, singles into triples, and doubles into home runs. (And no, this isn't hyperbole.)

As an example of how baserunning WAR plays into the game, take a look at another speedster not quite in Hamilton's class, Elvis Andrus. The Ranger SS earned a 7.7 score in Speed on his way to a 4.5 WAR overall. This led the majors. That adds .77 to his overall WAR. Hamilton is faster, more aggressive, and just stole 66 more bases in less games in the minor leagues.

Defensively, Hamilton can again use his monster tools to earn major WAR points. Again, at his ceiling, he turns his 80 athleticism into Gold Glove defense. We've already discussed his elite (re: HOF) range and that he already gets to balls that other great fielders wave at. If he's a Gold Glove level SS, he'd earn what other players earn at that level. Alexi Ramirez earned an 11. That adds another 1.1 WAR to his ledger.

So far, he's at around 2.0 WAR and that's being conservative on his numbers.

Now, add in his speed while hitting. We're again talking about ceiling (the best of all outcomes)-- therefore, Hamilton masters the bunt game, a la Brett Butler (another speedster whom I compare to Hamilton). After figuring out how to bunt really, really well, Butler went from an average-ish BaBIP to one that regularly exceeded 340 and didn't dip below 328 until he was over 40 and had lost two or three steps. If Hamilton can harness that bunt-- with his speed-- he easily adds that extra 1.1 of WAR to make it to 3.0 WAR almost no one else has.

You add in the typical elite speedster progression-- and a season where hits fall and his BaBIP soars-- and a season of 8.0 WAR is certainly possible.

The problem here, IMO, isn't Hamilton so much as it's the definition of ceiling. Ceiling is if everything goes right. (I had this discussion one time five years or so ago on Redszone, IIRC.)

Because of his 80 tool (speed) and its effects, Hamilton could become a HOF player. It's very similar to Aroldis Chapman, in that he too has an 80 tool and an athleticism that allows him to repeat it.

Honestly, this is the last part I'm gonna try to comment on and I really don't know where to start. I'm serious, there's just so much... yes that sounds like hyperbole; monster tools? he has speed and what else?; he masters the bunt game? what is he yoda?; hits fall and his BaBIP soars and his 3.0 war becomes an 8.0 war??; ceiling is if everything goes right reality doesn't matter in the equation; I wouldn't call Chapman a 'potential' HOF player either I just don't throw that around that easily; ....

how about this, name some players that had an 8.0 WAR with 5 or less homers.

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

3. This isn't about where they are now, dan. It's about where they could be projected when they hit the majors. (If they hit the majors.)

He has an 80 tool. Only a select few in the history of the game have a tool that high.

He has 80 athleticism. Only a select few in today's game have as much athleticism as does Hamilton

I understand. We're talking about what we think his potential ceiling could be IF everything goes right. I just think you're hoping for ALOT to go right.

Only a select few in the history of the game have a tool that high. Ok, someone else that knows how to check that can let us know but I'm really doubtful about that. Now I'm not saying that I expect that there'll be alot of players like that but more than a few. And how much alot of speed is worth vs alot of something like power is open to debate but I'll side with the people that think power is worth more. ALOT more.

Lastly, he's NOT in the game yet. He's nowhere close. He's in A ball. If he can have those kind of stats for a season in the majors then, sure, I'll admit I was wrong and you were right. But, there's a heck of a difference between A ball and the majors.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

And Tim Raines absolutely is a HOF player. Look at his numbers. He just hasn't been awarded that honor because the BBWA are pretty much stupid.

Agree.

[TRF]

I missed the vote, but I'd have gone with Soto again.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by redsfandan

Yeah, Bourn was close but not close enough. Look, even if you can find some players that actually had a .240/.300/.300 line with 50+ steals I doubt it's going to be that often of an occurrence. And that's what you have for his major league floor.

Were you alive in the 1970's? Virtually every leadoff hitter in baseball during that decade had similar numbers. Larry Bowa is a SS that couldn't quite steal all those bases, but all the other numbers work out. There's a bunch of those guys, in fact.

But, let's just focus on the 1970s era SS. Let's also focus on a 610 or less OPS, with 50+ SBs. Let's also limit it to SS and leadoff hitters, just for fun. I've still got:
Omar Moreno
Ron LeFlore
Maury Wills
Bert Campenaris
Ozzie Smith
to start with. I know Delino Deshields had a season close to this in the mid 90's (as he was on my fantasy team).

Not that this means anything...

[RedsManRick]

Some guys that come to mind when I try to picture Billy Hamilton's career: Otis Nixon, Delino Deshields, Tony Womack, Vince Coleman, Omar Morena, Willie McGee. Some useful players there, but more fun than good.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Some guys that come to mind when I try to picture Billy Hamilton's career: Otis Nixon, Delino Deshields, Tony Womack, Vince Coleman, Omar Morena, Willie McGee. Some useful players there, but more fun than good.

I hope Hamilton really does develop, but with questions about both the glove and the bat, I'll be happy if he turns into any of those guys. Even Willy T had 4 years in the big leagues and duped some idiot into giving him $6.5 Million over 2 years. That has to be considered a success when considering the failure rate of prospects.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

2. As to the 8.0 WAR:
Because of that speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths (and fangraphs ability to graph it), Hamilton will start out with 3.0 + WAR in his pocket that almost no one else will have. I don't know if you've ever seen him play live, but he is truly in a class by himself both in stealing bases and in running the bases. He turns outs into singles, singles into triples, and doubles into home runs. (And no, this isn't hyperbole.)

Yes, it is hyperbole. Hamilton has two inside the park home runs in his career. So either he is the absolute weakest hitter in baseball history as a pro (since by your theory he would have only had two doubles if he were a regular runner), or it is quite a bit of hyperbole. He also isn't turning singles in triples. He had plenty of infield singles this year, but he also had plenty that weren't.