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Old 11-15-2011, 05:18 PM   #1
texasdave
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Third Year Wall - Japanese Pitchers In ML

Interesting.

Quote:
When the Boston Red Sox signed Daisuke Matsuzaka to a six-year contract beginning in 2007 -- a $103 million investment including a $51 million posting fee to acquire his rights -- they worried about the Third-Year Wall. Research by the Boston quantitative analysts showed that most pitchers from Nippon Pro Ball suffered a sharp decline in performance about three years into their transition to Major League Baseball.
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz1dob7a0VU
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Old 11-17-2011, 05:08 PM   #2
LeDoux
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Re: Third Year Wall - Japanese Pitchers In ML

I am curious as to how Japanese pitchers would compare a to non-Japanese control group. Is there no "wall" for others or a smaller wall?
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Old 11-17-2011, 05:10 PM   #3
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Re: Third Year Wall - Japanese Pitchers In ML

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Originally Posted by LeDoux View Post
I am curious as to how Japanese pitchers would compare a to non-Japanese control group. Is there no "wall" for others or a smaller wall?
What kind of control group? Could you be more specific? Pitchers that signed big free-agent contracts?
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Old 11-17-2011, 05:17 PM   #4
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Re: Third Year Wall - Japanese Pitchers In ML

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Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
What kind of control group? Could you be more specific? Pitchers that signed big free-agent contracts?
I suppose there could be several types:

age-matched, vs. all starting pitchers with more than 30 starts for 3 consecutive years, other FAs.

I would be most interested in the age-match group controlling for previous IP.
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