Keith Law's Top 50 MLB players--25 years and younger (3 Reds)

[fearofpopvol1]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...players-age-25

Jay Bruce #22
Aroldis Chapman #33
Mike Leake #48

Most puzzling for me is Starlin Castro at #6. I know he's very young and plays a premium position and hits for average, but he's a below average defender, he's not a good baserunner and he's not got a lot of power in his bat. Would I take him? Of course. But is he the 6th best youngest player in the MLB right now? I certainly don't think so.

[powersackers]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...players-age-25

Jay Bruce #22
Aroldis Chapman #33
Mike Leake #48

Most puzzling for me is Starlin Castro at #6. I know he's very young and plays a premium position and hits for average, but he's a below average defender, he's not a good baserunner and he's not got a lot of power in his bat. Would I take him? Of course. But is he the 6th best youngest player in the MLB right now? I certainly don't think so.

Castro, staying healthy, will probably have close to 2000 hits. I'd say he deserves that spot for now.

[Mario-Rijo]

The problem I have with this list is Justin Upton is #1 yet Bruce is #22, laughable IMO. That right there caused me to write it off.

[texasdave]

Originally Posted by powersackers

Castro, staying healthy, will probably have close to 2000 hits. I'd say he deserves that spot for now.

Did you mean 3000 hits? Because Starlin is going well over 2000.

[lollipopcurve]

The problem I have with this list is Justin Upton is #1 yet Bruce is #22, laughable IMO. That right there caused me to write it off.

Look at their stats sometime. Upton has actually shown the elite upside -- Bruce not so much. Upton has 2 years a single tick or two below .900 OPS. Bruce still looking to hit .850. Consider that Bruce is playing at GAB and in the hitter-friendly NL Central, while Upton is in the pitcher friendly NL West, and the gap between the two players widens.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Look at their stats sometime. Upton has actually shown the elite upside -- Bruce not so much. Upton has 2 years a single tick or two below .900 OPS. Bruce still looking to hit .850. Consider that Bruce is playing at GAB and in the hitter-friendly NL Central, while Upton is in the pitcher friendly NL West, and the gap between the two players widens.

While I agree that Upton > Bruce, citing GABP doesn't really count much when comparing to Upton. Arizona is extremely hitter friendly.

The Reds don't have a comparable hitter for 2011, but they did in 2010. In 2010 Upton has a .356 OBP and .442 SLG. The Reds had a guy with a .364 OBP and a .428 SLG. Upton had a 110 OPS+ compared to the Reds guy at a 112 OPS+. The Reds guy had a lower OPS overall, but a better OPS+. Why? Upton actually played in better hitting environments over the entire season than the Reds guy did. Colorado and Arizona apparently more than make up for playing in San Diego and LA.

[lollipopcurve]

citing GABP doesn't really count much when comparing to Upton. Arizona is extremely hitter friendly.

If GABP is a better hitter's park than Arizona's park (which I think is the case), the comparison is valid.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

If GABP is a better hitter's park than Arizona's park (which I think is the case), the comparison is valid.

Except that I showed that despite a higher OPS than the Reds player, Upton had the lower OPS+ which suggests that the overall hitting environment Upton plays in is actually slightly better than the ones Bruce plays in.

Something that isn't talked about much is just how bad of a hitters park St Louis is playing in right now. It isn't much better to hit in than Petco is. The Reds play there just as much as the D'Backs are playing in Petco.

And for the record, Arizona is more hitter friendly than GABP is. It gives up more runs. GABP gives up more HR's, but Arizona gives up more hits, doubles, triple (all by substantial amounts actually) and walks.

[lollipopcurve]

Something that isn't talked about much is just how bad of a hitters park St Louis is playing in right now. It isn't much better to hit in than Petco is. The Reds play there just as much as the D'Backs are playing in Petco.

And for the record, Arizona is more hitter friendly than GABP is. It gives up more runs. GABP gives up more HR's, but Arizona gives up more hits, doubles, triple (all by substantial amounts actually) and walks.

Where do you get this information? Would be interested in seeing a link or resource.

I'll stand by my original point -- Upton is clearly the better talent based on performance so far. But it appears the numbers are not as starkly opposed as I thought.

[powersackers]

Originally Posted by texasdave

Did you mean 3000 hits? Because Starlin is going well over 2000.

I did originally type 3000, but then I thought about those last 500 hits and how hard it is to knock them out. So I looked at Arky Vaughn, his most comparable by age on b-r.com and thought it was given 2000.

But on the high end, yes 3000 is in play.

[texasdave]

Originally Posted by powersackers

I did originally type 3000, but then I thought about those last 500 hits and how hard it is to knock them out. So I looked at Arky Vaughn, his most comparable by age on b-r.com and thought it was given 2000.

But on the high end, yes 3000 is in play.

I knew nothing about Arky Vaughn so I looked him up. He essentially quit baseball at the age of 31.

However, the season was marred by an incident that would nearly lead to the end of Vaughan's career. During the season, temperamental manager Leo Durocher got into a confrontation with pitcher Bobo Newsom after Newsom complained about catcher Bobby Bragan dropping a third strike. On July 10, after Newsom had been suspended for three games, Vaughan threatened to leave the team, handing his uniform to Durocher for disposal. After Vaughan's display, only two players were willing to play for Durocher that day, but upper management intervened. After the season, he left the team, retiring to his ranch. He went on to sit out the next three years.

After sitting out three years he came back but for two seasons but only got about 150 PA in each of them.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Where do you get this information? Would be interested in seeing a link or resource.

I'll stand by my original point -- Upton is clearly the better talent based on performance so far. But it appears the numbers are not as starkly opposed as I thought.

ESPN.com has park factors for hits and types of hits as well as runs. You can find three year park factors through Google. That is what I did. If I weren't busy right now I would find you the exact link I had earlier, but I am swamped. Let me know if you can't find them and I will track them down later tonight at some point.

[nmculbreth]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Look at their stats sometime. Upton has actually shown the elite upside -- Bruce not so much. Upton has 2 years a single tick or two below .900 OPS. Bruce still looking to hit .850. Consider that Bruce is playing at GAB and in the hitter-friendly NL Central, while Upton is in the pitcher friendly NL West, and the gap between the two players widens.

I wouldn't dispute the fact that Upton is the better player but I'm not sure that the difference in talent is enough to merit putting one player at #1 and another at #22.

When I look at the list, I only see five players that I'd definitely take over Bruce and another two or three that would be in the conversation. Some of the names ahead of Bruce - Maybin, Morrison, Anderson - are downright laughable.

[powersackers]

Originally Posted by texasdave

I knew nothing about Arky Vaughn so I looked him up. He essentially quit baseball at the age of 31.



After sitting out three years he came back but for two seasons but only got about 150 PA in each of them.

I missed that in the fine print. Nice story TexasDave!

[americanoutlaw1]

Yeah, J-Upton and Clayton Kershaw are the only ones I can matter of factly state I would take over Bruce. Stanton is very close, and I would take Strasburg were it not for injury concerns, but nobody else on that list would I feel more comfortable with going forward than Jay. This list goes on to show the flavor of the month. I would almost guarantee that if this list were made one year ago to the day, Upton and Heyward would have switched spots. Alot of people were low on Upton last year as he failed to even OPS 800 and J-Hey had a 5 win season. As a 20 year old. In Major league Baseball. Heyward should be in that top 6 with the aforementioned in my opinion, his talent level hasn't changed at all. Then it should start to get into Lawrie, Hosmer, McCutchen, Posey and the like. That's how I see it... BTW Jaime Garcia is pretty underranked in this list too at 24.