Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

[BuckeyeRedleg]

My problem with Cordero is that they will probably overpay and then he'll be placed into the closer role (when it should be LeCure or Marshall).

Scenario: Game 7 of World Series. Coco comes in with a 1 run lead. Would anyone feel comfortable with that? I woudn't.

[Dom Heffner]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

My problem with Cordero is that they will probably overpay and then he'll be placed into the closer role (when it should be LeCure or Marshall).

Scenario: Game 7 of World Series. Coco comes in with a 1 run lead. Would anyone feel comfortable with that? I woudn't.

I don't like Marshall as a closer. I like the fact that he can come in and give you more than one inning at a time. He has really been among the best in the game in that role- he gives us some versatility that closers don't.

Having said that, I don't want Cordero back, even if it's for free.

The k rate is down, and while I like the closing percentage, I'm more of a process guy than a results one. And his process numbers are not pretty.

[thatcoolguy_22]

Originally Posted by Dom Heffner

I don't like Marshall as a closer. I like the fact that he can come in and give you more than one inning at a time. He has really been among the best in the game in that role- he gives us some versatility that closers don't.

Having said that, I don't want Cordero back, even if it's for free.
The k rate is down, and while I like the closing percentage, I'm more of a process guy than a results one. And his process numbers are not pretty.

Bolded for truth. Marshall stays a set up guy, then he is coming into the the 7th, with 2 outs and 2 on, in a 1 run game against the heart of the order, ending the threat, and touching of the 8th for good measure. Put him in the closers roll and he is facing the 6-7-8 hitters with no one on. I'm firmly entrenched in the best reliever in the pen pitches the big situation bandwagon, and not just because its the 9th.

Cordero: Washed Up.

2012 appears to be the year he jumps the shark. Precipitous fall on all rate stats that have a chance at predicting and coming off a ridiculous season offering daily cigars and rum to Jobu, won't last.

Ryan Madson could be the piece that turns the 2012 bullpen into a strength. However, I hope WJ does not sign him to a multiyear deal. Meaning, I hope he doesn't sign him. The real core of the team is sprinting to pay raises and the money can be spent locking our guys up or possibly resigning Mr. Votto. Throw an extra 9million a year into the offer to Votto and things could change dramatically. Maybe Brackman works out, Masset stops buckling, LeCure proves he's legit, Arredondo returns to form, minor leaguer steps up, etc etc, the closer only pitches 60 something innings and have a much smaller impact on the season than the Reds positional players/possible upgrades in the field.

[Vottomatic]

Why not sign Lidge to a cheap major league contract and hope for the best. It seems like we're signing guys like Judy and Brackman, hoping they regain form. I'd sign Chad Qualls too. Hopefully I read it right, but he has a good groundball rate. Alot of relievers out there still unsigned. It would be nice if we started signing a few.

[traderumor]

Observation: there is a lot of bold talk in December about filling the closer unconventionally or cheaply. That bold talk ends pretty quickly after the first few roller coaster 9ths, blown save or not.

[Will M]

Originally Posted by traderumor

Observation: there is a lot of bold talk in December about filling the closer unconventionally or cheaply. That bold talk ends pretty quickly after the first few roller coaster 9ths, blown save or not.

the only guy out there who isn't at risk to blow up is Madson & he will cost $$$.
I don't see how the team can afford him. Madson was a very good setup guy prior to 2011. He ends up as the Phil's closer due to injuries to Lidge & Contreras. Viola! He goes from a $3M/year player to a $10-12M/year player simply because he had success as a closer in 2011.

Cordero may have been a closer in the past but I think he is a huge risk to blow up like Ryan Franklin did in 2011. Lidge has closed in the past but only played a partial season in 2011 due to injury.

I'd be happy with Marshall as the 'closer' to start 2012 as long as the Reds add a quality arm or two to the pen. The team could sign Lidge, Darren Oliver, Luke Scott, a 6th starter like Francis, a couple of guys to minor league deals & still have some change left over for July. Or we could sign Madson.

[Captain Hook]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

My problem with Cordero is that they will probably overpay and then he'll be placed into the closer role (when it should be LeCure or Marshall).

Scenario: Game 7 of World Series. Coco comes in with a 1 run lead. Would anyone feel comfortable with that? I woudn't.

If the Reds get to to the 9th inning of game 7 in the World Series and Cordero has still held on to the closing job I'm 100% ok with it.

[757690]

Originally Posted by Captain Hook

If the Reds get to to the 9th inning of game 7 in the World Series and Cordero has still held on to the closing job I'm 100% ok with it.

If the Reds reach the 7th game of the World Series next season, I'm more than fine with it, I'm ecstatic.

However, I can't imagine how that could happen if Cordero is the Reds closer next season. It's my biggest fear this off season, the Reds signing Cordero and handing him the closers job. It could undo all the good done so far.

[Vottomatic]

My biggest fear is how Dusty handles the bullpen.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Will M

the only guy out there who isn't at risk to blow up is Madson & he will cost $$$.
I don't see how the team can afford him. Madson was a very good setup guy prior to 2011. He ends up as the Phil's closer due to injuries to Lidge & Contreras. Viola! He goes from a $3M/year player to a $10-12M/year player simply because he had success as a closer in 2011.

Cordero may have been a closer in the past but I think he is a huge risk to blow up like Ryan Franklin did in 2011. Lidge has closed in the past but only played a partial season in 2011 due to injury.

I'd be happy with Marshall as the 'closer' to start 2012 as long as the Reds add a quality arm or two to the pen. The team could sign Lidge, Darren Oliver, Luke Scott, a 6th starter like Francis, a couple of guys to minor league deals & still have some change left over for July. Or we could sign Madson.

Who else out there is there that needs a closer bad enough to pay him $10 mil if the Reds don't give it?

From what I can tell, the market for closers is almost non-existent right now. The Reds might be able to wait this one out and get a bargain.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

Who else out there is there that needs a closer bad enough to pay him $10 mil if the Reds don't give it?

From what I can tell, the market for closers is almost non-existent right now. The Reds might be able to wait this one out and get a bargain.

I agree with you. I also thinking that Walt saying that the Reds priorities right now are left field and utility infielder is playing into this. Walt probably has an offer on the table for Madson and Cordero. He is banking on one of them biting on an offer that is below what they are asking for right now with the understanding that when one takes the offer the other will be off the table.

Walt probably is just going to slow play the closer situation because he probably believes that he has close to a sufficient bullpen after the Marshall trade and while we almost certaintly go into the 2012 season with exactly what we have now in the bullpen, we don't need Cordero or Madson.

Therefore, we will go ahead and figure out left field and a utility infielder while waiting on one of them to bite.

[Hoosier Red]

Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22

Bolded for truth. Marshall stays a set up guy, then he is coming into the the 7th, with 2 outs and 2 on, in a 1 run game against the heart of the order, ending the threat, and touching of the 8th for good measure. Put him in the closers roll and he is facing the 6-7-8 hitters with no one on. I'm firmly entrenched in the best reliever in the pen pitches the big situation bandwagon, and not just because its the 9th.

Cordero: Washed Up.

2012 appears to be the year he jumps the shark. Precipitous fall on all rate stats that have a chance at predicting and coming off a ridiculous season offering daily cigars and rum to Jobu, won't last.

A crazy thought that I'd like the more statistically knowledgeable to weigh in on.
Is it possible for a closer to hang on to declining rate stats for longer than a starter if he is able to a)not walk people and b)not allow home runs.

The reason I ask is, because it's a small sample size, 1 inning per game, maybe 60 or 70 games per year, it seems as though even if Cordero allows more hits, that isn't something as likely to catch up to him because he has less of a window to navigate through in each game.

Because the closer almost always comes in with a clean frame, it is less important for him to strike people out, and more important that he not walk people and avoid giving up home runs. Obviously these two things are important for all pitchers.

But a high leverage reliever often comes in with inherited runners, in that case even one hit can be the difference between wins and losses. A starter obviously benefits from the same three outs per inning, but if he is prone to giving up hits, he's also prone to more of them coming as a string in a big inning.
As a closer, Cordero (or others) are able to give up a few hits in an inning without necessarily giving up a run, and if they get three outs, the slates wiped clean and they pitch another day before anyone gets to see them.

[Jpup]

Wasn't Cordero's WHIP just over 1 last year? He's still a pretty good piece to have in the bullpen. I would not give him his last contract, but I could see him getting near 5 million.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Hoosier Red

A crazy thought that I'd like the more statistically knowledgeable to weigh in on.
Is it possible for a closer to hang on to declining rate stats for longer than a starter if he is able to a)not walk people and b)not allow home runs.

The reason I ask is, because it's a small sample size, 1 inning per game, maybe 60 or 70 games per year, it seems as though even if Cordero allows more hits, that isn't something as likely to catch up to him because he has less of a window to navigate through in each game.

Because the closer almost always comes in with a clean frame, it is less important for him to strike people out, and more important that he not walk people and avoid giving up home runs. Obviously these two things are important for all pitchers.

The big things to look at are K:BB and HR rate. If you can keep your K:BB around 2 or higher and the HR rate at or below 1 per 9, you should be in pretty good shape. It should be noted, as you point out, that as the K and BB rates dip, the pitcher is going to have more balls in play, meaning more marginally more H/9 and HR/9.

With a guy like Cordero, who is used almost exclusively as a closer rather than a stopper (comes in with the bases empty and 3 or fewer outs needed), I agree with your supposition that strikeouts are less important than they might be otherwise. And for Cordero I don't think you have to worry too much about the hit rate issue that comes from allowing more balls in play and inherited runners. The decreasing rates will lead to more hits and homers, but not dangerously so on a team with a good defense.

The big thing I worry about with Cordero is that in 2 of the last 3 years, he got very "lucky" -- with HR/FB in 2009 and BABIP last year. Those ERAs are deceptive and belie his true mediocrity. It seems that he reinvented himself by adding a curveball last year and "pitching to contact". The GB rate spike let this work for him -- hopefully that's a function of his new approach and not just a random fluctuation. His low BABIP last year is in part a credit to the Reds stellar defense, but expecting another .214 is crazy.

If Cordero returns as the closer and puts up comparable peripherals, I think we're going to see an ERA much closer to his 4.02 FIP -- probably in the upper 3s. As long as that's what the Reds pay for, I guess it's not a problem. From my perspective, I just want a "closer" who doesn't blow too many games and you don't need to be dominant to do that.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Jpup

Wasn't Cordero's WHIP just over 1 last year? He's still a pretty good piece to have in the bullpen. I would not give him his last contract, but I could see him getting near 5 million.

It was 1.02. But a lot of that was a .214 BABIP. Give him a .280 BABIP instead (he's at .290 for his career) and it would have been 1.25. That's still not bad, but not nearly as impressive. 1.30 is a reasonable projection for next year, with the BABIP regression and some BB/9 regression as well.