Team payroll tied to postseason chances

[Vottomatic]

This is a loosely based discussion. So take it for what it's worth. Here are the links I used for the info.

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm
http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/

Last 10 seasons starting in 2002. World Series Champ in bold. First 2 teams listed in each league played for league championship, with winner listed first.

2002
AL
Anaheim Angels ($62M - 15th)
Minnesota Twins ($40M - 27th)
Oakland A's ($39M - 28th)
NY Yankees ($126M - 1st)

NL
Giants ($78M - 10th)
Cardinals ($74M - 13th)
Braves ($93M - 7th)
Diamondbacks ($102M - 4th)
Missed postseason: Red Sox (2nd in payroll), Rangers (3rd), Dodgers (5), Mets (6), Mariners (8), Indians (9)

2003
AL
Yankees ($152M - 1st)
Red Sox ($100M - 6th)
Twins ($55M - 18th)
A's ($50M - 23rd)

NL
Marlins ($49M - 25th)
Cubs ($80M - 11th)
Giants ($83M - 9th)
Braves ($106M - 3rd)
Missed postseason: Mets (2), Dodgers (4), Rangers (5), Mariners (7), Cardinals (8)

2004
AL
Red Sox ($125M - 2nd)
Yankees ($182M - 1st)
Angels ($101M - 3rd)
Twins ($53M - 19th)

NL
Cardinals ($75M - 11th)
Astros ($74M - 12th)
Dodgers ($89M - 7th)
Braves ($88M - 8th)
Missed postseason: Mets (4), Phillies (5), Cubs (6), Giants (9)

2005
AL
White Sox ($75M - 13th)
Angels ($95M - 5th)
Red Sox ($121M - 2nd)
Yankees ($206M - 1st)

NL
Astros ($76M - 12th)
Cardinals ($93M - 6th)
Padres ($63M - 17th)
Braves ($85M - 10th)
Missed postseason: Mets (3), Phillies (4), Giants (7), Mariners (8), Cubs (9)

2006
AL
Tigers ($82M - 14th)
A's ($62M - 21st)
Yankees ($195M - 1st)
Twins ($63M - 19th)

NL
Cardinals ($89M - 11th)
Mets ($101M - 5th)
Dodgers ($98M - 6th)
Padres ($70M - 17th)
Missed postseason: Red Sox (2), Angels (3), White Sox (4), Cubs (7), Astros (8), Braves (9)

2007
AL
Red Sox ($143M - 2nd)
Indians ($62M - 23rd)
Yankees ($189M - 1st)
Angels ($109M - 4th)

NL
Rockies ($54M - 25th)
Diamondbacks ($52M - 26th)
Cubs ($99M - 8th)
Phillies ($89M - 13th)
Missed postseason: Mets (3), White Sox (5), Dodgers (6), Mariners (7), Tigers (9)

2008
AL
Rays ($44M - 29th)
Red Sox ($133M - 4th)
White Sox ($121M - 5th)
Angels ($119M - 6th)

NL
Phillies ($98M - 12th)
Dodgers ($118.5M - 7th)
Cubs ($118M - 8th)
Brewers ($80M - 15th)
Missed postseason: Yankees (1), Mets (2), Tigers (3), Mariners (9)

2009
AL
Yankees ($201M - 1st)
Angels ($114M - 6th)
Red Sox ($122M - 4th)
Twins ($65M - 24th)

NL
Phillies ($113M - 7th)
Dodgers ($100M - 9th)
Cardinals ($88M - 13th)
Rockies ($75M - 18th)
Missed postseason: Mets (2), Cubs (3), Tigers (5), Astros (8)

2010
AL
Rangers ($55M - 27th)
Yankees ($206M - 1st)
Rays ($72M - 21st)
Twins ($97M - 11th)

NL
Giants ($98M - 10th)
Phillies ($141M - 4th)
Reds ($72M - 19th)
Braves ($84M - 15th)
Missed postseason: Red Sox (2), Cubs (3), Mets (5), Tigers (6), White Sox (7), Angels (8), Mariners (9)

2011
AL
Rangers ($92M - 13th)
Tigers ($105.7M - 10th)
Yankees ($202M - 1st)
Rays ($42M - 29th)

NL
Cardinals ($105M - 11th)
Brewers ($85M - 17th)
Phillies ($173M - 2nd)
Diamondbacks ($53M - 25th)
Missed postseason: Red Sox (3), Angels (4), White Sox (5), Cubs (6), Mets (7), Giants (8), Twins (9)

[Vottomatic]

In the last 10 seasons, a team with a top 10 payroll won it all 4 times.
In the last 10 seasons, of the 20 teams in the world series, only 7 of them had a top 10 payroll.
In the last 10 seasons, of the 80 teams to make the playoffs, 39 of them had a top 10 payroll.

Futility:
Mariners never made the playoffs in the last 10 seasons, but had a top 10 payroll in 6 of those seasons.
Mets had a top 10 payroll for all of those seasons, and made the playoffs once.
Cubs had a top 11 payroll for 9 of those seasons, made the playoffs 3 times, made the league champioship game once, and for two seasons they had the third highest payroll and missed the playoffs both times.

Efficiency:
Red Sox had a top 5 payroll in all 10 seasons, made the playoffs 6 times and won it all twice.

Futility or efficiency?
Yankees had the highest payroll in all 10 seasons, made the playoffs 9 times, went to the WS twice, and won it once.
Dodgers had a top 10 payroll in 7 of those seasons, making the playoffs 4 times, and the league championship twice, but never got to the WS.

On the cheap
Twins made the playoffs 6 times with payroll rankings of 27th, 18th, 19th, 19th, 24th, and 11th.
A's made it to the playoffs 3 times while never having a payroll ranked higher than 21st.
Cardinals made the playoffs 6 times, while posting a top 10 payroll only once in those appearances, and won it all twice.

[Slyder]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

In the last 10 seasons, a team with a top 10 payroll won it all 4 times.
In the last 10 seasons, of the 20 teams in the world series, only 7 of them had a top 10 payroll.
In the last 10 seasons, of the 80 teams to make the playoffs, 39 of them had a top 10 payroll.

Futility:
Mariners never made the playoffs in the last 10 seasons, but had a top 10 payroll in 6 of those seasons.
Mets had a top 10 payroll for all of those seasons, and made the playoffs once.
Cubs had a top 11 payroll for 9 of those seasons, made the playoffs 3 times, made the league champioship game once, and for two seasons they had the third highest payroll and missed the playoffs both times.

Efficiency:
Red Sox had a top 5 payroll in all 10 seasons, made the playoffs 6 times and won it all twice.

Futility or efficiency?
Yankees had the highest payroll in all 10 seasons, made the playoffs 9 times, went to the WS twice, and won it once.
Dodgers had a top 10 payroll in 7 of those seasons, making the playoffs 4 times, and the league championship twice, but never got to the WS.

On the cheap
Twins made the playoffs 6 times with payroll rankings of 27th, 18th, 19th, 19th, 24th, and 11th.
A's made it to the playoffs 3 times while never having a payroll ranked higher than 21st.
Cardinals made the playoffs 6 times, while posting a top 10 payroll only once in those appearances, and won it all twice.

Look at OPPORTUNITIES though. Once the playoffs roll around its as much about who's hot and healthy as it is who's the "best team". This years Cards are a perfect example of that. I made a post on another site and don't have time to find it, copy and paste it right now but I'll try and find it. I think if I remember correctly the top 10 accounted for more than 2/3 of all the playoff teams on average.

*Edit* Found it real quick

2010 Payroll:
Yankees 1st
Phillies 4th
Giants 10th
Twins 11th
Braves 15th
Reds 19th
Rays 21st
Rangers 27th and got bailout from MLB to keep em afloat.

2009 Playoffs:
Yankees 1st
Red Sox 4th
Angels 6th
Phillies 7th
Dodgers 9th
Cardinals 17th
Colorado 18th
Twins 23rd

So whos getting the most cracks at the playoffs? Again top 10.

2008 Playoffs:
Boston 4th
White Sox 5th
Angels 6th
Cubs 7th
Dodgers 8th
Phillies 13th
Milwaukee 15th
Tampa Bay 29th

So one team in the bottom half of payrolls, 5 teams in the top 10

2007 Playoffs:
Yankees 1st
Red Sox 2nd
Angels 5th
Cubs 8th
Phillies 14th
Indians 23rd
Rockies 25th
D-Backs 26th

So once in the past 3 years (before this year) has the bottom 3rd even approached the big spending clubs in terms of number of teams in the playoffs.

14 of 24 spots were top 10 spenders of the year.
5 of 24 spots were in the 11-20 spenders of the year.
5 of 24 spots were in the bottom 1/3.

2004-2006: 14 of 24 teams were top 10 payrolls.
2007-2009: 14 of 24 teams were top 10 payrolls.

[oneupper]

The correlation is actually even more direct than the number suggest, since several top payroll teams find themselves competing for the same spot (i.e. Yankees, Red Sox or Mets-Phillies).

[mbgrayson]

I started a similiar thread here a couple years ago: HERE.

However, I was looking at a ten year period and how salary tied in to each team's chances of making the playoffs. There clearly was a correlation between salary and making the playoffs. I think longer periods were more useful, since there are always a few teams that 'beat' the system in any given year.

You also need to look at how a given team's payroll stacks up to the other teams in the division. The Reds can win the NL Central with an $80 million payroll, but that payroll may be one of the top payrolls in their division. However, it is presumably harder to win the NL East with a lower payroll, because that same payroll may rank far lower in that division.