2012 MLB Draft order

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Really? Not a single potential All-Star? That's just ridiculous. First, let's just go ahead and eliminate Todd Frazier, Zack Cozart, and Devin Mesoraco from the discussion even though they're all still rookies. Oh, and J.J. Hoover and Mike Costanzo, too, of course. Who does that leave? Well . . .

Neftali Soto has drawn a lot of comparisons to Derrek Lee. Donnie Joseph probably isn't a future closer, but he's looking like a bullpen stud, and if Arthur Rhodes can become an All-Star, why not Joseph? Dan Corcino and Billy Hamilton are two of the top prospects in baseball. Kyle Lotzkar usually dominates when he's healthy. People rave about Didi Gregorius. Henry Rodriguez has done nothing but hit. The jury is still out on Donald Lutz, but he has some big-time power. You could say the same about Juan Duran. Does it get any toolsier than Yorman Rodriguez? Robert Stephenson was last year's first round draft pick, and in most years, he would've been drafted a lot earlier than he was. Tucker Barnhart is considered the best defensive catcher in all the minor leagues, and he has some very impressive on-base skills. I could go on, but the point is this: the Reds have plenty of potential All-Stars. Whether any of them actually do it or not is anyone's guess, though.

First off, I said "arguably."

Secondly, I'll stand by the statement (with a slight clarification). There is not one player you can point to right now and say they look like they have a good chance to make multiple All-Star teams at the major league level- the same way it looked like when we had four with Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey a few years back, or even last year when we had Mesoraco, Alonso and Grandal. Not one at the moment.

Billy Hamilton looks exciting but even in the upside scenario he looks like a speedier Luis Castillo, Deion Sanders or Juan Pierre. Without any power to speak of, it will be an uphill battle for him to be a multiple-time All-Star.

Daniel Corcino is the best pitching prospect in the system, but he really profiles as a #2 or strong #3 starter. If you had to project him now, he may make an All-Star team in his career year, but at his best looks like he is a slightly worse Johnny Cueto.

Donald Lutz probably has the best chance of any prospect at this point to prove me wrong, but he is currently on the DL in High A ball. He could do it, but if forced to make a 50/50 bet I'd bet against, given his age, position and development at this point.

Stephenson has the upside but it is far too early to tell. The point is I'd like to see more prospects injected into the system with his potential upside, which would greatly increase the chance of landing a potential future All-Star. I'm not complaining about the fruit that this farm system has bore in the past five years- it has certainly been plentiful. I'd just like to see that pipeline continue, as right now it is looking as bare in terms of upside as it has been in almost a decade.

Of the people you name, I will go out on a limb and proclaim that Mike Costanzo, DiDi Gregorius, Tucker Barnhart and Donnie Joseph will never be major league All-Stars. I'll be happy to be wrong, but I seriously doubt it.

[RedlegJake]

I agree with Beni on this. The system is strong in its depth of average ML player types - guys who could conceivably have 1 or 2 all star years but likely won't. Just solid everyday players. The biggest stars in the system have huge holes too. I'm leaving out Stephenson, who hasn't pitched an inning yet, and Amir Garrett who may be better than all of them, but is raw and also hasn't pitched. Until they play they are wildcards. Position players though look deep and - dare I say - dull? Hamilton has flash but there is still a huge question of whether he'll ever be able to get on base at the ML level. Yorman's tools are currently hitting under .200 in a hitter's league and he and Duran have looked pretty lost to this point. Didi and Tucker are defensive wizards. Barnhart will likely never hit the broadside of a barn, and Gregorious at his very best will be a slap hitting pesky little ballplayer with gold glove ability. Corcino profiles as a #3 or 4. He is comped to Cueto always with the caveat "a little less than" and Cingrani - pitching great but scouts say his likely ceiling is a good bullpen pitcher or BOR starter. I'll give him the benefit and say he's MOR because he is pitching like it. NONE of the prospects would break the top five list on any team with a farm system in the top 20, imo. Not at this point. The trades and promotions have depleted the best from the system. It is a salute to the Reds that they lost so many to promotion/trade and can still claim a deep system in the lower levels. Things may look much better next year after we see how last years draft picks finish up (those playing their first season) and hoiw well the draft goes this year. Right now, it's an unexciting farm system with a lot of C and a few C+ prospects.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedlegJake

I agree with Beni on this. The system is strong in its depth of average ML player types - guys who could conceivably have 1 or 2 all star years but likely won't. Just solid everyday players. The biggest stars in the system have huge holes too. I'm leaving out Stephenson, who hasn't pitched an inning yet, and Amir Garrett who may be better than all of them, but is raw and also hasn't pitched. Until they play they are wildcards. Position players though look deep and - dare I say - dull? Hamilton has flash but there is still a huge question of whether he'll ever be able to get on base at the ML level. Yorman's tools are currently hitting under .200 in a hitter's league and he and Duran have looked pretty lost to this point. Didi and Tucker are defensive wizards. Barnhart will likely never hit the broadside of a barn, and Gregorious at his very best will be a slap hitting pesky little ballplayer with gold glove ability. Corcino profiles as a #3 or 4. He is comped to Cueto always with the caveat "a little less than" and Cingrani - pitching great but scouts say his likely ceiling is a good bullpen pitcher or BOR starter. I'll give him the benefit and say he's MOR because he is pitching like it. NONE of the prospects would break the top five list on any team with a farm system in the top 20, imo. Not at this point. The trades and promotions have depleted the best from the system. It is a salute to the Reds that they lost so many to promotion/trade and can still claim a deep system in the lower levels. Things may look much better next year after we see how last years draft picks finish up (those playing their first season) and hoiw well the draft goes this year. Right now, it's an unexciting farm system with a lot of C and a few C+ prospects.

While I would rate Hamilton behind Corcino (who I think you are underrating quite a bit), Keith Law just ranked Hamilton 25th in all of baseball. That would put him inside every Top 5 of every system in the game.

[RedlegJake]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

While I would rate Hamilton behind Corcino (who I think you are underrating quite a bit), Keith Law just ranked Hamilton 25th in all of baseball. That would put him inside every Top 5 of every system in the game.

I know, I just disagree with that assessment. So far he has one tool, possibly two if he can keep up the OBP and hitting for average (which is a pleasant surprise to me). But I think that ranking is ALL ceiling - not a true look at where is in reality, still a very raw kid who needs a ton of polish before he is ready.

[nmculbreth]

For some of the more prospect-savvy folks, given the relative weakness of this year's draft class wouldn't it make sense to gamble with Lucas Giolito at #14 (assuming he's there) and simply pocket the pick if he balks at signing / fairs his physical?

From what I've read the kid was a very, very highly regarded prospect going into the spring, so it would seem getting a player with that kind of ceiling would be a coup at #14. If he doesn't sign, the Reds can pocket the pick and hope for a better draft class next season...

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by nmculbreth

For some of the more prospect-savvy folks, given the relative weakness of this year's draft class wouldn't it make sense to gamble with Lucas Giolito at #14 (assuming he's there) and simply pocket the pick if he balks at signing / fairs his physical?

From what I've read the kid was a very, very highly regarded prospect going into the spring, so it would seem getting a player with that kind of ceiling would be a coup at #14. If he doesn't sign, the Reds can pocket the pick and hope for a better draft class next season...

Yes. I would love it of we took Giolito, who has the highest upside of any pitcher in this draft. With two sandwich picks, it's the exact type of risk the Reds should be able to afford.

[lollipopcurve]

Re: Giolito -- the risk should be mitigated as much as possible. Both on the health and the signability front -- make sure you have as much medical information as is available, and get as much of a read on his signability as possible. Problem, though, is that the Reds have two supplemental picks and a budget preset by MLB. If Giolito busts your budget, it's probably not worth it.

Perhaps the team's experience with Drew Cisco and his TJ surgery is relevant here. While he is not the prospect Giolito is, it's the same injury, and here we are well over a year since Cisco was operated on and he still hasn't thrown a pro inning. TJ surgery is common, and most guys bounce back -- but not all do.

So, there is a worst case scenario here -- Giolito signs for a huge bonus, the team is forced to go cheap throughout the rest of the top ten rounds, and he ends up never bouncing all the way back from surgery.

That said, it would be a dramatic pick and he'd be fun to have in the system. I'd be fine with it, provided they didn't have to compromise all that much on other top picks. But by no means do I think it's clearly what the team should do, in some black vs white way, if the opportunity presented itself.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Re: Giolito -- the risk should be mitigated as much as possible. Both on the health and the signability front -- make sure you have as much medical information as is available, and get as much of a read on his signability as possible. Problem, though, is that the Reds have two supplemental picks and a budget preset by MLB. If Giolito busts your budget, it's probably not worth it.

Perhaps the team's experience with Drew Cisco and his TJ surgery is relevant here. While he is not the prospect Giolito is, it's the same injury, and here we are well over a year since Cisco was operated on and he still hasn't thrown a pro inning. TJ surgery is common, and most guys bounce back -- but not all do.

So, there is a worst case scenario here -- Giolito signs for a huge bonus, the team is forced to go cheap throughout the rest of the top ten rounds, and he ends up never bouncing all the way back from surgery.

That said, it would be a dramatic pick and he'd be fun to have in the system. I'd be fine with it, provided they didn't have to compromise all that much on other top picks. But by no means do I think it's clearly what the team should do, in some black vs white way, if the opportunity presented itself.

Except that Gioloto didn't have TJ surgery. He had a minor elbow sprain.

His current bill of health (which I don't have specific info on) and signability concerns are important here, but so are the facts.

[RED VAN HOT]

I have no knowledge of any of the players. Of course, that does not preclude expressing an uninformed opinion.

I would stay away from any of the pitchers with health setbacks. Nor does it seem that there are any sure fire impact bats that will be available at 14. The Reds have a number of young arms, Stephenson, Garrett, Covington, and Romano to name a few that will take 3-5 years to reach the majors. Thus, a solid college arm with a good probability of becoming at least a back of the rotation starter within 3 years does not seem to be too bad a choice at 14. That said, I like Heaney (reason: LHP with good command) first then Wacha (large frame) , then Stratton. At least one of those will be available. If I were to take a position player, my pick would be Seager.

I would use the supplemental picks for corner bats likely to sign since funds will be limited. Health setbacks are not as potentially limiting for hitters. Roache could be available.

[Scrap Irony]

Gioloto sounds great to me. He's just the type of gamble I'd take when I have three picks in the first round and supplementals.

[RedlegJake]

I bet Giolito doesn't last to 14. Pitchers are thin - Zimmer, Appel, Gausman, Giolito then you start hitting 2nd tier arms. Waha, Stroman, Fried, McCullers. My guess is those top 4 pitchers get taken quickly along with Buxton, Zunnino and Correa. If ANY of those top 4 I named are left I hope the Reds grab them, otherwise - go for a bat. I can name ten guys who are prospective bonafide sluggers after Correa, Zunnino and Buxton. Good bats are a lot more plentiful. So much so I expect a quality bat to be available in the sandwich round.

But you bring up a good point - with the new signing rules does a team get any extra added to its budget when it has extra picks? Otherwise that makes it kind of tough to make the budget. I mean you get dollars equal to every slot you possess right?

If they draft correctly the Reds could potentially add a solid arm and two solid bats before they get into the later rounds. This is a critical year draft-wise because of the relative thinness of the farm at the top and the rarity of 3 top picks and how well teams handle the new signing rules. A good draft and signing means the Reds keep a deep system from top to bottom in another year as the low level guys hit AA and AAA and these new draftees fill the lower levels. That quickly, the farm could be back in the top tier of systems.

[lollipopcurve]

Except that Gioloto didn't have TJ surgery. He had a minor elbow sprain.

OK. I am assuming it's the type of injury that has the TJ shadows looming large. Otherwise, why would there even be an assumption that he'd drop?

[krm1580]

If he is there Gioloto would be my pick. The Reds probably won't be picking this high again for a while (hopefully) so they might as well take a shot with an elite talent.

If he is not there I think I would flip the script a little and see if they can get a high floor, below slot guy at 14 and see if they can use the extra money to get some high ceiling, tougher sign guys later.

[Boro_BG_Red]

What do you guys think about Marcus Stroman? I know he is smaller and expected to be in the bullpen, but he can make an instant impact. I know I prefer an impact bat to put in the minors for a few years to develop, but is he worth a look? Our bullpen is already great, but just throwin' it out there.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

OK. I am assuming it's the type of injury that has the TJ shadows looming large. Otherwise, why would there even be an assumption that he'd drop?

Because he hasn't pitched all season (due to his health) and he has significant signability concerns. That is why many are saying if he drops out of the top 10 (for the former reason) he could go undrafted entirely (for the latter reason).

Victor Roache has gone from a surefire top 10 pick to a guy who could fall into the sandwich round because he broke his wrist- not necessarily an injury that should have long-term repercussions.

Gioloto could wind up having TJ surgery at some point. But then again, so could any pitcher taken in this draft. If he is going to be healthy enough to pitch in Spring Training next year, I would take a gamble on him.