Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

CarolinaRedleg · 01-18-2012, 03:47 PM

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...&sct=hp_t11_a2

Quote:

6. Mike Leake, 23, Reds (+36 2/3). Reds GM Walt Jocketty targeted an increase of between 20 and 30 innings for Leake in 2010, but allowed him to slightly surpass that goal. Leake also made his minor-league debut this year, getting two tuneup games in Triple-A. Leake bears watching because he is not a prototypical workhorse. In two major league seasons, the 185-pound Leake is 14-5 in the first half and 6-8 in the second.

RedLegsToday · 01-18-2012, 04:32 PM

Leake, first half 2011, 8-4 4.28 era, 2nd half 2011, 4-5 3.33. Obviously, he faded in the second half..

Dan · 01-18-2012, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedLegsToday

Leake, first half 2011, 8-4 4.28 era, 2nd half 2011, 4-5 3.33. Obviously, he faded in the second half..

Unless his mechanics are off this year, he's not going to have a problem going more innings.

dougdirt · 01-18-2012, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dan

Unless his mechanics are off this year, he's not going to have a problem going more innings.

That isn't true. Plenty of guys have excellent and repeatable mechanics and still get hurt. Throwing a baseball, no matter how good your mechanics are, is very unnatural.

RedLegsToday · 01-18-2012, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Leake bears watching because he is not a prototypical workhorse. In two major league seasons, the 185-pound Leake is 14-5 in the first half and 6-8 in the second.

I'm just focused on the ridiculousness of this statement. Using won-lost record to determine whether or not a pitcher faded in the 2nd half. He ended his season pitching 17innings and giving up 3 runs in 2 starts against the Cubs.

traderumor · 01-18-2012, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedLegsToday

I'm just focused on the ridiculousness of this statement. Using won-lost record to determine whether or not a pitcher faded in the 2nd half. He ended his season pitching 17innings and giving up 3 runs in 2 starts against the Cubs.

Amen

kaldaniels · 01-18-2012, 08:06 PM

What's up with Leake being on a non contender?

mth123 · 01-18-2012, 08:20 PM

I believe in following Verducci's 30 inning rule as a rough estimate in a precautionary way. Leake only jumped 36 innings. I don't think its a huge risk. Homer Bailey in 2009 had a 60 inning jump and has been on the DL with a bum shoulder 3 times since then, but 36 innings doesn't make him that high a risk IMO. I think he'll go 200 innings in 2012 with an ERA right around 4.00.

mbgrayson · 01-18-2012, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

What's up with Leake being on a non contender?

Yeah, I am not sure how he defines 'contender'. Pretty sure he is referring to how their teams did last year, as opposed to the coming season. Does he mean .500 ball or better? Within x games of the division or wild card team? All the 'contender' teams were in the playoffs.

I notice the White Sox were also considered 'non-contenders', as were the Giants. The White Sox finished 79-83, same record as the Reds, and they were 16 games back, while the Reds were 17 back. The Giants were 86-76, and finished 8 games back.

The bigger question is why would it matter whether a pitcher's team was a contender. Do pitchers 'pitch harder' if their team is in contention? I doubt it....

dougdirt · 01-18-2012, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mth123

I believe in following Verducci's 30 inning rule as a rough estimate in a precautionary way. Leake only jumped 36 innings. I don't think its a huge risk. Homer Bailey in 2009 had a 60 inning jump and has been on the DL with a bum shoulder 3 times since then, but 36 innings doesn't make him that high a risk IMO. I think he'll go 200 innings in 2012 with an ERA right around 4.00.

I agree with this. 6 innings is a small enough difference that it would have happened in spring training and no one would have ever noticed it.

Ravenlord · 01-18-2012, 11:47 PM

i would not be surprised if after this season, Mike Leake becomes a pitcher similar to Bronson Arroyo.

blumj · 01-18-2012, 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbgrayson

Yeah, I am not sure how he defines 'contender'. Pretty sure he is referring to how their teams did last year, as opposed to the coming season. Does he mean .500 ball or better? Within x games of the division or wild card team? All the 'contender' teams were in the playoffs.

I notice the White Sox were also considered 'non-contenders', as were the Giants. The White Sox finished 79-83, same record as the Reds, and they were 16 games back, while the Reds were 17 back. The Giants were 86-76, and finished 8 games back.

The bigger question is why would it matter whether a pitcher's team was a contender. Do pitchers 'pitch harder' if their team is in contention? I doubt it....

I think maybe he considers it a better excuse for stretching the limit, if they're doing it to try to make the playoffs or win playoff games?

Ravenlord · 01-19-2012, 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blumj

I think maybe he considers it a better excuse for stretching the limit, if they're doing it to try to make the playoffs or win playoff games?

that would make sense. it would also make sense to include a minor bias for size of the media market.

traderumor · 01-19-2012, 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mth123

I believe in following Verducci's 30 inning rule as a rough estimate in a precautionary way. Leake only jumped 36 innings. I don't think its a huge risk. Homer Bailey in 2009 had a 60 inning jump and has been on the DL with a bum shoulder 3 times since then, but 36 innings doesn't make him that high a risk IMO. I think he'll go 200 innings in 2012 with an ERA right around 4.00.

I think you demonstrated how arbitrary Verducci's guess is.

_Sir_Charles_ · 01-19-2012, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ravenlord

i would not be surprised if after this season, Mike Leake becomes a pitcher similar to Bronson Arroyo.

WHICH Bronson Arroyo? The one we've gotten used to seeing, or the abomination we saw last season?

01-18-2012, 04:32 PM	#2
RedLegsToday Member Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Fairfield, OH Posts: 516	Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate Leake, first half 2011, 8-4 4.28 era, 2nd half 2011, 4-5 3.33. Obviously, he faded in the second half..

01-18-2012, 08:06 PM	#7
kaldaniels Viva la Rolen Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 6,302	Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate What's up with Leake being on a non contender?

01-18-2012, 08:20 PM	#8
mth123 The Big Dog Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 12,659	Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate I believe in following Verducci's 30 inning rule as a rough estimate in a precautionary way. Leake only jumped 36 innings. I don't think its a huge risk. Homer Bailey in 2009 had a 60 inning jump and has been on the DL with a bum shoulder 3 times since then, but 36 innings doesn't make him that high a risk IMO. I think he'll go 200 innings in 2012 with an ERA right around 4.00. __________________ "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

01-18-2012, 11:47 PM	#11
Ravenlord Into de Halls of Valhalla Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: mostly Williamsburg....occassionaly the rest of the several state region. Posts: 8,909	Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate i would not be surprised if after this season, Mike Leake becomes a pitcher similar to Bronson Arroyo. __________________ the store for all your blade, costuming (in any regard), leather (also in any regard), and steel craft needs.www.facebook.com/tdhshop yes, this really is how we make our living.

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