Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Reds/Flyers Fan

A mediocre upgrade remains an upgrade nonetheless.

Maybe. Until we have to rely on Carlos Fisher in the bullpen instead of Jeremy Horst.

[MartyFan]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Maybe. Until we have to rely on Carlos Fisher in the bullpen instead of Jeremy Horst.

Would the Francis signing impact this at all? Maybe he is a long reliever instead of a stater.?

[mth123]

This move simply adds one more guy who can play SS for multiple days in a row should Cozart become unavailable. I don't see this as a Janish vs. Valdez move. Valdez gives them a 3rd option who can play SS on a daily basis at the beginning of the season. By mid-year maybe Negron rebounds and re-enters the picture or Gregorious takes enough of a step forward that they'll feel comfortable calling him up. The others aren't viable defensiviely for multiple days in a row without it taking a toll on the staff. I don't really have a problem with somebody like Frazier being the back-up on a spot basis or a game here or there, but if the situation requires a guy start two days in a row, I'd want at least an average defender to prevent the extra workload from piling up on the staff. This is a much better move than signing Theriot or bringing Renteria back for the same reason.

Horst had fallen pretty far down the depth chart with the signings of Clay Zavada and Ron Mahay. Add guys like Judy, Brackman, Fisher and Smith and its doubtful that Horst would have seen time in Cincy. I'm guessing part of the appeal for Philly is that he has already cleared waivers and the removal from the 40 man and can be left off of the 40 man there and stashed safely in AAA without risking exposure to waivers.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by MartyFan

Would the Francis signing impact this at all? Maybe he is a long reliever instead of a stater.?

To be honest, I really hope Jeff Francis doesn't pitch for the Reds. His stuff is incredibly underwhelming at this point. His fastball last year was 85 MPH on average.

[mth123]

BTW, just for reference, Valdez has a .621 career OPS vs. Janish at .591. Janish has 975 PAs in his career or roughly 2 full seasons. The difference between Janish OPS and Valdez OPS is 14 singles. Over 2 full seasons, we're basically talking about 1 single per month making it through the infield. Lets not get any illusions that Valdez is some major improvement offensively over Janish. Hitting in front of the pitcher, 14 singles over 2 seasons probably doesn't even amount to more than 1 run per year on the scoreboard. It's not really enough to get excited about. It's questionable that its worth keeping him over Janish since, IMO, Janish is a better defender (but Valdez is fine at SS). Still, having two guys who could make the plays every day should Cozart go down is still better than only having one.

[Ron Madden]

I'm not really happy about this move but it doesn't really bother me either.

I think I'd rather have Janish than Valdez and I'd rather have Valdez than Theriot but I aint gonna lose any sleep over it.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by mth123

BTW, just for reference, Valdez has a .621 career OPS vs. Janish at .591. Janish has 975 PAs in his career or roughly 2 full seasons. The difference between Janish OPS and Valdez OPS is 14 singles. Over 2 full seasons, we're basically talking about 1 single per month making it through the infield. Lets not get any illusions that Valdez is some major improvement offensively over Janish. Hitting in front of the pitcher, 14 singles over 2 seasons probably doesn't even amount to more than 1 run per year on the scoreboard. It's not really enough to get excited about. It's questionable that its worth keeping him over Janish since, IMO, Janish is a better defender (but Valdez is fine at SS). Still, having two guys who could make the plays every day should Cozart go down is still better than only having one.

EXCELLENT POST! Really put the hitting difference into perspective. Nice.

[klw]

Originally Posted by mth123

BTW, just for reference, Valdez has a .621 career OPS vs. Janish at .591. Janish has 975 PAs in his career or roughly 2 full seasons. The difference between Janish OPS and Valdez OPS is 14 singles. Over 2 full seasons, we're basically talking about 1 single per month making it through the infield. Lets not get any illusions that Valdez is some major improvement offensively over Janish. Hitting in front of the pitcher, 14 singles over 2 seasons probably doesn't even amount to more than 1 run per year on the scoreboard. It's not really enough to get excited about. It's questionable that its worth keeping him over Janish since, IMO, Janish is a better defender (but Valdez is fine at SS). Still, having two guys who could make the plays every day should Cozart go down is still better than only having one.

The difference between .250 and .300 - YouTube

[TRF]

Originally Posted by reds44

And then they turned 28.

You literally just randomly picked out Valdez's worst year and Janish's best year.

I picked Janish 3rd year, Valdez' second year. His third year didn't come until age 29. Want me to pick that one?

216 .263 .270 .533

Here is a simple truth. Valdez is a backup that has never had a single season as good as Janish 2010 season.

They are the SAME player, with Janish having a slight edge due to age.

Let me put it this way... Would you trade for Paul Janish?

[dfs]

Originally Posted by reds44

I can't believe Paul Janish still has supporters.

Why?

Out of the hundreds of folk on this board it's pretty easy to find folks who can squint at the outline of Ryan Ludwick's line and think "he'll bounce back" and support that signing.

As of last off season Paul Janish had done everything they asked him to do. Sure this last year, he cratered, but guys have come back from a bad season before.

Either of these guys can fill in the role of backup ss. It's a matter now of which Dusty prefers. If either one of them gets 400 at bats, the season is not going well.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by TRF

Let me put it this way... Would you trade for Paul Janish?

If all we had a week ago was Cozart, Valdez and miles of bad road before getting to the next guy who could play major-league-quality shortstop, I'd have been okay with bringing someone in. What mth said was on the mark. It's a long season and Cozart is no sure thing. Depth matters.

[RedLegsToday]

To be honest, I really hope Jeff Francis doesn't pitch for the Reds. His stuff is incredibly underwhelming at this point. His fastball last year was 85 MPH on average.

I'm not saying Jeff Francis was good last year or anything, but, his 85 ERA+ was better than the following Reds starters from last year: Arroyo, 77, #($*%*#&! Volquez, 68, Travis Wood, 81, Dontrelle, 78.
Francis would have comfortably been the Reds 3rd-4th best starter last year, and he was able to go 30 starts. There's certainly value in getting him on a minor league deal. He also was at one time something Homer Bailey has never been, a good major league starting pitcher. Who knows, maybe he gets some of that back the farther removed he gets from surgery.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedLegsToday

I'm not saying Jeff Francis was good last year or anything, but, his 85 ERA+ was better than the following Reds starters from last year: Arroyo, 77, #($*%*#&! Volquez, 68, Travis Wood, 81, Dontrelle, 78.
Francis would have comfortably been the Reds 3rd-4th best starter last year, and he was able to go 30 starts. There's certainly value in getting him on a minor league deal. He also was at one time something Homer Bailey has never been, a good major league starting pitcher. Who knows, maybe he gets some of that back the farther removed he gets from surgery.

I don't know how he did it, but he magically did it. Opposing batters hit .301/.337/.457 (That is Brandon Phillips with a few less walks) off of him last year and he was successful (according to WAR) . Something tells me that if he lets guys hit .301 and slug .457 off of him again that he won't have nearly the same success.

Guys killed his fastball last year (no surprise, it can't break glass) and his curveball was only slightly above average while his change up was slightly below average.

I don't trust guys with his profile. His stuff isn't likely to just start getting better. He is 300 innings removed from his surgery and his stuff has actually gotten slower (by 2.5 MPH from '10 to '11 with his fastball, change up down 3 MPH and curveball down 4.6 MPH).

And what does Homer Bailey have to do with Jeff Francis?

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Is it ok to have a small issue with giving up talent for a mediocre upgrade over parts we already have in Janish and Valaika (if he is even an upgrade over Valaika that is)?

The talent Horst has is neglegible. He's pretty much the definition of a replacement level reliever. The Reds have no room for him in the short term future. The Reds recently signed depth for AAA, so there's really no problem with letting Horst go.

On the other hand, adding someone that can play SS is worthwhile.
Janish is horrid. Valdez isn't great, but is an upgrade. Cozart showed promise, but he's still an unknown.

Any move that makes it less likely for Janish to be on the ML roster is a good one.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Wilson Valdez is now both fairly valuable AND not easily replaceable?

And honest question, is he truly an upgrade over Chris Valaika?

Yes, he is an upgrade over Valiaka.