Yorman Article/Analysis

[mdccclxix]

What we have here, then, is a classic mixed bag. Rodriguez clearly has some big flaws and a long way to go, but he’s also incredibly young and shows signs of life in just about every area of the game already. It’s easy to run with either of those facets—on one hand, you can say “He’s not even producing in Low-A, so how can we see him as a MLB’er?” and on the other, you can say “He didn’t fall on his face against much older players and has great raw talent, so he’s a potential superstar.”

I thought it would be an interesting exercise to take a look at similar cases in the recent past, so I came up with a list of 25 players that were in Low-A at age 18 and had the same sort of passable but not outstanding results. Not all of them are great comparables for Rodriguez, as I’ll explain, but hopefully, going through this list in my typical exhaustive fashion will shed some light on the possibilities for a player of this (very) general profile.

http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/02/...nted-analysis/

[Sea Ray]

I fear he's going to be another Jackson Melian, a highly rated prospect we aquired from the Yankees who ended up "peaking" at age 21 in AA

[TRF]

Yorman clearly has a few things going against him. Instant wealth, youth/maturity issues, and I believe a problem at home with family (I think it was health related). It was also written that when he returned late in the year he was on a path of maturing a bit. in 67 AB's after the all star break he post this line: .299 .333 .478 .811. He's only 19, and if he repeats Dayton, he's still a young guy. If he repeats Dayton and does a level a year after that he'll be 22 at AAA.

Melian "peaked" at 22. That's three years away for Yorman.

[redsof72]

Yorman is a hard player for scouts to judge in person, much less by looking at numbers without actually seeing him play. This is a player that could have a lot of peaks and valleys before he even gets to the big leagues. He could have years where it looks like all the problems are in the past, and then things could turn topsy-turvy again.

Yorman certainly had an awakening in 2011 and it will be interesting to see how he reacts. Trying to break down his stats and weigh production/vs. age is sidestepping the real issue with this player. The real question that only Yorman can answer is: do you really want to play? Hopefully, after an off-season of contemplation, he has arrived at a different answer than the one he carried with him in 2011.

[lollipopcurve]

Yorman certainly had an awakening in 2011 and it will be interesting to see how he reacts. Trying to break down his stats and weigh production/vs. age is sidestepping the real issue with this player. The real question that only Yorman can answer is: do you really want to play? Hopefully, after an off-season of contemplation, he has arrived at a different answer than the one he carried with him in 2011.

Your posts on Yorman have strongly influenced how I see him, 72. I buy what you're saying about the intangibles being the make-or-break issue with him.

Do you know if he participated in the early camp out in Arizona? From what I understand, they held it a few weeks ago, and it was for more highly valued minor leaguers.

[redsof72]

I do not know the answer to that. I heard that in instructional league, coming back from the season-ending shoulder bruise from early July, his attitude was much better.

I have never said that this player could not be salvaged, but obviously, with the drop to #19 on the Baseball America list, a lot of people saw what I saw.

Could he go to Bakersfield and be a completely different player and regain a spot in the top 10? It is possible. I never saw the great tools that others talk about, but the kid never gave himself a chance. Maybe with a different attitude, a different player emerges from the rubble of 2011.

Long time scouts have told me that Albert (then Joey) Belle had the worst attitude in the last 30-40 years as a minor leaguer. He had years when he went AWOL, was sent home, etc. He ended up as a star. For every Belle, there were 100 guys like that who just got themselves released.

Again, first order of business for this player that only he can decide: Does he really want to be here? I know what the answer was in 2011. I hope it is different in 2012.

[lollipopcurve]

I heard that in instructional league, coming back from the season-ending shoulder bruise from early July, his attitude was much better.

Thanks 72. Appreciate the info -- and I'm glad to hear YRod was at instrux and showed a better attitude. I'm still a bit concerned about his performance in winter ball, where he played a few games, got about 20 ABs, and then disappeared from the box scores.

[Sea Ray]

How many more years do we have before he has to be put on the 40 man roster and start counting his options? I know the clock is ticking

[TRF]

I think 3 counting this year. Because of his age when signed he gets 6 years right?

[texasdave]

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2009/1/4...oster-how-does

Players meeting certain conditions must be added to their organization's 40-man roster or they become eligible for the Rule 5 draft. The eligibility requirements: Players who were 18 or younger on the June 5th preceding the signing of their first pro contract must be added after five minor league seasons. Players who were 19 or older must be added after four minor league seasons.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by TRF

I think 3 counting this year. Because of his age when signed he gets 6 years right?

His first yr with us was 2009 so I'd say next yr is his 5th and final year as a minor leaguer. They'll have to add him to the 40 man roster two yrs from now.

That's OK. He's got some time. I think in two yrs we'll know more about him than most of our minor league guys when it comes time to make the call on whether to add them to the 40 man or expose them to the Rule 5 draft. Let's hope he makes it an easy call and he's put on the 40 man

[mth123]

Funny thing about teanagers, as time goes by, they grow-up. I'm not all that concerned about a 19 year old being immature. Its something to watch, but nothing to get all hot and bothered about at this point. I'm more interested if he'll hit and be able to stay in CF. If he still seems a headcase at 23, then I'll have some concern.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

How many more years do we have before he has to be put on the 40 man roster and start counting his options? I know the clock is ticking

Following this season, the Reds must decide whether to put Rodriguez on the 40-man roster or risk losing him in the rule 5 draft. The same is true for Juan Duran, Dan Corcino, J.C. Sulbaran, Ismael Guillon, and countless others.

[redsof72]

Originally Posted by mth123

Funny thing about teanagers, as time goes by, they grow-up. I'm not all that concerned about a 19 year old being immature. Its something to watch, but nothing to get all hot and bothered about at this point. I'm more interested if he'll hit and be able to stay in CF. If he still seems a headcase at 23, then I'll have some concern.

Imagine a classroom with 25 students. You have 25 different attitudes. The 2-3 best stand out from the rest, and the worst one stands out from the rest. That's every year. But when someone comes along and people are saying, "I have never seen a student with an attitude like this before, ever", it goes beyond the typical talk about immaturity. That's the reason for the drop to # 19.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Following this season, the Reds must decide whether to put Rodriguez on the 40-man roster or risk losing him in the rule 5 draft. The same is true for Juan Duran, Dan Corcino, J.C. Sulbaran, Ismael Guillon, and countless others.

Really? Wow.

Obviously we'll have this whole season to judge, and a lot can change during that time. However at this point, I could see having to protect both Sulbaran and Corcino. The others, not so much: barring a Bruce-like meteoric rise, I can't see any of them being close to sticking on a major league roster in 2013.

Is Guillon even going to start in Dayton this year? It'll be interesting to see how he compares to Stephenson, Cisco and Cingrani.