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Old 03-03-2003, 04:04 PM   #1
Raisor
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Predictions Updated!

Back on January 8th, I made the following predictions for the upcoming season:


Quote:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
EAST
1. Boston
2. New York
3. Toronto
4. Baltimore
5. Tampa Bay

Central
1. Minnesota
2. Chicago
3. Cleveland
4. Detroit
5. Kansas City

West
1. Oakland
2. Seattle (Wild Card)
3. Texas
4. Anaheim

Oakland over Boston
Seattle over Minnesota

Oakland over Seattle

NATIONAL LEAGUE
East
1. Philadelphia
2. New York
3. Montreal
4. Atlanta
5. Florida

Central
1. St Louis
2. Houston (Wild Card)
3. Chicago
4. Cincinnati
5. Pittsburg
6. Milwaukee

West
1. San Fransisco
2. San Diego
3. Arizona
4. Los Angeles
5. Colorado

St Louis over Philly
San Fran over Houston

San Fran over St Louis

World Series
Oakland over San Fran
With some teams making a few noteworthy moves since then I've decided to update my predictions.
I don't think I'll be changing any of my American League predictions, but do have a few to make in the NL..
sooooo...

NL East
1. Phillies
2. Braves
3. Mets
4. Expos
5. Marlins

NL Central
1. Astros
2. Cards
3. Cubs
4. Pirates
5. Reds
6. Brewers

NL West
1. Giants
2. Dodgers
3. Snakes
4. Padres
5. Rockies

Wildcard-Cards

Astros over Phillies
Giants over Cards

Giants over Astros

Giants over A's

PSR
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Old 03-03-2003, 04:27 PM   #2
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So what did the Pirates do to sneak by the Reds in your predictions? :thumbdn:
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Old 03-03-2003, 04:30 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally posted by TheBurn
So what did the Pirates do to sneak by the Reds in your predictions? :thumbdn:
Reggie Sanders got signed, and Pokey is hurt.

Also, I like their starting rotation better then the Reds. Suppan in PNC Park should be a big boost to them.

(By the way, yes I know that Pokey's injury is minor, but with Pokey you never know when OPERATION SHUTDOWN v2.0 might go into effect)
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Old 03-03-2003, 04:33 PM   #4
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Good enough! Although of course, I do not agree!
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Old 03-03-2003, 08:57 PM   #5
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A few comments.
I think the Buccos did improve, but no way do I see them jumping by the Reds. Cubs...they have to prove it to me that they have improved that much. I like their rotation but don't really like their offense all that much. Reds second place behind the Astros. Cards third in my mind.

Anaheim in fourth. Ouch. No way do they make the playoffs but I think, falling behind Texas is a bit of a stretch.

Bosox ahead of the Yankees? I would love that to happen but don't see that either. Look at their roster. They have all stars at every position and starters coming out the rear to trade. No way do they not win the East.

Atlanta falls to fourth? Don't believe that either. 2nd maybe, fourth no way.

Pads ahead of Dbacks? Could happen but I can't see it.

The rest I can see happening.
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Old 03-03-2003, 09:02 PM   #6
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NL East

Atlanta
Philly
Florida
Montreal
New York


NL Central

Houston
Cincy (wild card)
St. Louis
Chicago
Pitt
Milwaukee

NL West

San Fran
L.A.
Arizona
Colorado
San Diego
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Old 03-03-2003, 10:19 PM   #7
LvJ
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My Predictions:

AMERICAN LEAGUE
EAST
1. Boston
2. New York
3. Toronto
4. Baltimore
5. Tampa Bay

Central
1. Chicago
2. Minnesota
3. Cleveland
4. Kansas City
5. Detroit

West
1. Oakland
2. Anaheim
3. Texas
4. Seattle

NATIONAL LEAGUE
East
1. Philadelphia
2. New York
3. Atlanta
4. Florida
5. Montreal

Central
1. Chicago
2. Houston
3. Cincinnati
4. Pittsburgh
5. St Louis
6. Milwaukee

West
1. Arizona
2. San Diego
3. San Fransisco
4. Colorado
5. Los Angeles
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Old 03-04-2003, 12:39 AM   #8
Redsfaithful
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AL EAST:
1)New York Yankees
2)Boston Red Sox
3)Toronto Blue Jays
4)Baltimore Orioles
5)Tampa Bay Devil Rays


AL CENTRAL:
1)Minnesota Twins
2)Chicago White Sox
3)Cleveland Indians
4)Detroit Tigers
5)Kansas City Royals


AL WEST:
1)Oakland A's
2)Seattle Mariners
3)Anaheim Angels
4)Texas Rangers


NL EAST:
1)Atlanta Braves
2)Florida Marlins
3)Philadelphia Phillies
4)Montreal Expos
5)New York Mets


NL CENTRAL:
1)Cincinnati Reds
2)Houston Astros
3)Chicago Cubs
4)St. Louis Cardinals
5)Pittsburgh Pirates
6)Milwaukee Brewers


NL WEST:
1)Los Angeles Dodgers
2)San Francisco Giants
3)Arizona Diamondbacks
4)San Diego Padres
5)Colorado Rockies


AL CHAMPS:Oakland A's
NL CHAMPS:Los Angeles Dodgers


WORLD CHAMPS:Oakland A's


AL MVP:Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP:Shawn Green


AL CY:Pedro Martinez
NL CY:Odalis Perez


AL ROY:Jason Arnold
NL ROY:Marlon Byrd
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Old 03-04-2003, 03:25 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally posted by Virginia Beach Reds


Atlanta falls to fourth? Don't believe that either. 2nd maybe, fourth no way.

Pads ahead of Dbacks? Could happen but I can't see it.

The rest I can see happening.
I guess you didn't read the second half of the post, where I updated my predictions..

I've got Atlanta in 2nd now and the Pads in 4th
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Old 03-04-2003, 07:20 AM   #10
GoReds
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My predictions:

AL East
New York
Boston
Toronto
Baltimore
Tampa Bay
(this division would seem to be the easiest to predict)

AL Central
Minnesota
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Kansas City

AL West
Seattle
Oakland
Anaheim
Texas
(Oakland's offense is a question mark. Anaheim's pitching could suffer a setback)

AL Wildcard - Boston

New York over Boston
Minnesota over Seattle

New York over Minnesota

NL East
Philadelphia
Montreal
Atlanta
Florida
NY Mets
(This is going to be a tight race. Florida will be involved in quite a few low-scoring and 1-run games. I think their pitching puts them over .500. Philly will win the division, but the spread from 1st to 4th will be less than 10 games.)

NL Central
Houston
Cincinnati
Chicago
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
(THE toughest division to handicap considering all of the question marks for each team. Cincy is due for an upswing; St.Louis is looking at another tough year. This race will come down to the final week of the season).

NL West
San Francisco
Arizona
Los Angeles
Colorado
San Diego
(San Francisco in a runaway. Arizona is just getting older and this is the year they really start to show it. LA improves some with Colorado and San Diego hovering around .500).

NL Wildcard - Cincinnati

San Francisco over Cincinnati
Houston over Philadelphia

San Francisco over Philadelphia

New York over San Francisco
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Old 03-04-2003, 07:47 AM   #11
RANDY IN INDY
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Now which is it, Redsfaithful. 2003 MVP - Shawn Green or Ken Griffey Jr.?
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Old 03-04-2003, 02:26 PM   #12
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That was cut and pasted from a contest entry Randy.

I may be the eternal optimist but if there's prizes involved I gotta come back down to earth.
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Old 03-05-2003, 08:33 AM   #13
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NL East
Phillies
Braves
Mets
Expos
Marlins

NL Central
Astros
REDS(wild card)
Cards
Cubs
Bucs
Brew Crew

NL West
Diamondbacks
Giants
dodgers
Padres
Rockies

REDS over phillies
D-backs over astros

d-backs over reds

Al East
Yankees
Boston(wildcard)
toronto
O's
tampa bay

Al Central
Twins
white sox
Indians
Tigers
Royals

Al West
A's
Angles
M's
Texas
Twins over Yankees
Red sox over A's
Sox over Yankees

And finally the Sox bring the championship back to boston

MVP KEN GRIFFEY JR.
 
Old 03-05-2003, 12:19 PM   #14
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Baseball Prospectus is running a prediction contest.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/atm.shtml
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Old 03-25-2003, 08:06 PM   #15
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I figure Boss is going to archive this thread soon. And since it's getting close to opening day, and since I'll be traveling to Cincinnati over the weekend for opening day , I thought I'd better call my shot early.

One thing that really struck me this year is that the National League is extremely wide open. There is really only one team that I would consider "hopeless" this year, and that's the Brewers. Of course some teams are major longshots, such as the Padres, Pirates, and Marlins. But I wouldn't call them "hopeless." The American League is a different story, where the Devil Rays, Orioles, Royals, and Tigers are totally screwed as usual.

Since it's so wide open in the NL, I decided to rank the teams the same way that Diamond Mind Baseball does it - with odds of winning. I usually sneak a peak at their predictions, but 1) they don't come out until the 30th and 2) they didn't really help last year (the Angels were predicted to go .500). So this is all done UN-scientifically. The only math I did was to make sure that the odds of each division added up to 100%.

Anyway, here goes...

American League East

Yankees – Win Division 53%, Reach Postseason 75%
Red Sox – Win Division 45%, Reach Postseason 66%
Toronto – Win Division 2%, Reach Postseason 10%
Baltimore – Less Than 1% chance of postseason
Tampa – Less Than 1% chance of postseason

American League Central

Minnesota - Win Division 60%, Reach Postseason 65%
Chicago - Win Division 35%, Reach Postseason 40%
Cleveland - Win Division 5%, Reach Postseason 5%
Kansas City – Less than 1% chance of postseason
Detroit – Less Than 1% chance of postseason

American League West

Oakland - Win Division 50%, Reach Postseason 66%
Seattle - Win Division 25%, Reach Postseason 33%
Anaheim - Win Division 15%, Reach Postseason 33%
Texas - Win Division 10%, Reach Postseason 15%

National League East

Atlanta - Win Division 40%, Reach Postseason 50%
Philadelphia - Win Division 25%, Reach Postseason 40%
New York - Win Division 20%, Reach Postseason 33%
Montreal - Win Division 8%, Reach Postseason 15%
Florida - Win Division 7%, Reach Postseason 15%

National League Central

Houston - Win Division 40%, Reach Postseason 50%
St. Louis - Win Division 25%, Reach Postseason 40%
Chicago - Win Division 15%, Reach Postseason 30%
Cincinnati - Win Division 15%, Reach Postseason 25%
Pittsburgh - Win Division 5%, Reach Postseason 6%
Milwaukee - Less Than 1% chance of postseason

National League West

San Francisco - Win Division 38%, Reach Postseason 45%
Arizona - Win Division 35%, Reach Postseason 45%
Colorado - Win Division 15%, Reach Postseason 25%
Los Angeles - Win Division 10%, Reach Postseason 25%
San Diego - Win Division 2%, Reach Postseason 5%

NL MVP Runner Up (since Bonds is going to win): Jeff Kent
NL Cy Young Runner Up (since RJ is going to win): Mark Prior
NY Rookie of the Year: Kurt Ainsworth (if he still qualifies)

AL MVP: Manny Ramirez
AL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez
AL Rookie of the Year Runner Up (Since Mastui is going to win): Travis Hafner
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