Who is Redszone's #8 prospect? 2013

[texasdave]

1) Billy Hamilton
2) Robert Stephenson
3) Tony Cingrani
4) Daniel Corcino
5) Jesse Winker
6) Nick Travieso
7) Henry Rodriguez


Hope everyone had a nice Christmas as we head into the New Year. Best wishes to everyone.

[Scrap Irony]

I'm going with Ismail Guillon, a southpaw 20-year-old with really solid peripherals last season. He's young, his scouting report (average FB, plus CH, poor CB) indicates a MOR/ BOR starter with innings eating potential, and the Reds seem to like him quite a bit. I'd like to see him add a mph or two to his fastball (as he works anywhere from 88 to 92 now) or to really improve the consistency on his curve. But he's looking like a pretty sure bet (relatively speaking) as at least a middle reliever.

Other possibilities include Dan Langfield, who's a year older and has (much) better pure stuff. Langfield needs a change-up, and the Reds have typically been able to teach at least rudimentary circle changes (or cutters) for about a decade now. That's a system strength, IMO, and could come into play here. But he's a year older and further down the system ladder, as he finished last season at Billings. On the other hand, he flashes three plus pitches (FB, CB, SL). On the other other hand, he's small-ish and may profile only as a late-inning reliever. Lots to like there.

Another option is Yorman Rodriguez. Tons of tools, questions about his patience. His patience at the plate showed solid improvement for three years, but took a massive step backward last season after being challenged with High A. Lots of K's too. That's a huge red flag-- K's in bunches with no corresponding BB's. But he's still young (21 in High A in 2013). He's the most talented of the trio most likely for this spot.

[dougdirt]

Went with Yorman Rodriguez. High risk because of his plate discipline. But he is an incredibly high reward guy too.

[HokieRed]

Waldrop for me, then Yorman, then Guillon.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

Waldrop for me, then Yorman, then Guillon.

Can I ask why Waldrop over Yorman? Neither guy has really had 'outstanding performance'. Waldrop performed better last year, but it wasn't by a lot, he was a year older and their tools aren't really comparable.

[americanoutlaw1]

Rolled the dice with Yorman... Possibly based more on hope than actual belief, but it's the time of year when hope springs eternal so... What the hell

[HokieRed]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Can I ask why Waldrop over Yorman? Neither guy has really had 'outstanding performance'. Waldrop performed better last year, but it wasn't by a lot, he was a year older and their tools aren't really comparable.

Good question. It's really just a somewhat arbitrary matter of weighing tools/upside against progress against probability of major league contribution etc. Like you, I think Yorman's the most talented position player in the system, so if I were fully convinced he'd realize his talent, I'd put him #1. What I like most about Waldrop is the improvement, which I think I rate more highly than you estimate it. He made massive improvement in his K/BB ratio, going from 65K/10W at Billings in 2011 to 77K's/38 W in 2012 at Dayton--that's from 6.5 to 1 to 2 to 1. His K's went down from 1 in 4 to 1 in 6 PA. There was also steady improvement from month to month in his stats last year. OPS, for instance: May .687, June, .733, July, .827, August, .819. His birthday's late, November 26, 1991, so last year was really only his 20 year old season. So I see a substantially improving player who is going to be a 21 year old this year at High A. This puts him ahead, for me, of guys like Lutz, Vidal, Wright, maybe even Henry R., though I like all those guys well enough too. But if Yorman starts to put it together more, then obviously he goes higher.

[Red Swagger]

I wanted to add Drew Cisco to the prospect list, I am expecting a HUGE year for Drew

[Red Daddy]

What's up with Lotzkar? Did he get injured again?

[Steve4192]

I want to rank Yorman here based on potential, but at some point you have to accept that he will likely never realize his potential due to his atrocious strikezone management (15 BB & 100 K in 371 PA this year). Aside from a couple of glorious months in the Pioneer league back in 2010, Rodriguez has been completely underwhelming.

I ended up going with Guillon because he is a big bodied lefty who misses bats and seems to have some idea of how to play the game. The only other guys I considered were Soto (due to his proximity to the majors) and Barnhardt (due to his high floor). I'll probably vote Soto at #9 in the hopes that he puts up a monster first half and gets flipped by Walt for a useful major leaguer, then Rodriguez at #10 assuming he is still around.

[19braves77]

Thing is with Yorman he probably gets 3 more years of failure where someone like Gullion has to do everything just right without injury to reach his ceiling of a number 3 starter. So I voted Yorman.

[thatcoolguy_22]

I went with Soto. His BB% went up and K% down. His OBP was 70 points higher than his BA and he still has pop. Getting a little long in the tooth for prospect status, but I see a huge year in AAA and a couple call-ups in 13.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I want to rank Yorman here based on potential, but at some point you have to accept that he will likely never realize his potential due to his atrocious strikezone management (15 BB & 100 K in 371 PA this year). Aside from a couple of glorious months in the Pioneer league back in 2010, Rodriguez has been completely underwhelming.

I agree with this basically. No reason for him not to be demonstrating at least some of that talent at this point other than the simple fact that he doesn't have it. Not writing him off, but I'm not expecting anything either.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22

I went with Soto. His BB% went up and K% down. His OBP was 70 points higher than his BA and he still has pop. Getting a little long in the tooth for prospect status, but I see a huge year in AAA and a couple call-ups in 13.

Soto won't be 24 until February. A good year at AAA puts him on the map again. He has a chance to be up more quickly than Frazier, Cozart and many others.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by mth123

Soto won't be 24 until February. A good year at AAA puts him on the map again. He has a chance to be up more quickly than Frazier, Cozart and many others.

Yep.

I was a big fan of Soto back when there was some hope he might play SS/3B. Now that it looks like he isn't capable of playing any position well, I am less enthusiastic. Hopefully, he'll put up monster numbers the second time through AAA and fool some rival GM into believing he can be their long-term solution at 1B, netting the Reds a nice little return in a deadline trade.