Logan Ondrusek Thread

[757690]

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

FIP is actually based on past results. It shows that past ERA might be indicative of crap, not skill.

ERA is essentially not relevant in this converasation.

You can believe Ondrusek is as good as people thought Majewski was (in a comparable sample), but it's not a thing. Ondrusek is just an awful, awful pitcher. You can also be defensive of a thread bump, but at some point, you just need to accept that people are going to hate an awful players regardless of whether the hate is rational each and every time that the bad player screws up.

Ondrusek was your typical middle reliever until around June of this season. Since then he's been terrible, mostly due to his wildness, in and out of the strikezone. But he was as effective as any team could expect a middle reliever to be, for about as long as most middle relievers are effective.

Making matters worse, is that his recent ineffectiveness started when Baker began using him in higher leverage situations.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by 757690

Even if you value ERA as a stat, it's a pretty lousy one for evaluating the past performance of a reliever, since it doesn't include inherited runners, which is one of the most important areas for understanding the past performance of a reliever, imo.

Does Logan have problems with inherited runners?

[Patrick Bateman]

Can anybody find an example of a pitcher that long term had periperhals similar to what Ondrusek has this year, but still managed a consistently solid ERA for their career? I'm guessing in a large sample it doesn't exist. But I think you would need some comps in order to make a convincing case for him not being awful.

[nate]

I think a good way to look at it is to take the last three year's performance, compare it to his peers who have pitched a similar amount of innings and rank them.

So here are some of their stats from 2010 - 2012, minimum IP: 160.

Name			IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
Sean Marshall		197	10.32	2.42	0.32	0.311	55.70%	5.60%	2.51	2.11	2.47	6.3
Jonathan Papelbon	180.2	11.11	2.49	0.7	0.301	39.60%	7.50%	3.24	2.55	2.88	5.5
Matt Belisle		225	8.08	1.64	0.6	0.324	50.60%	7.70%	3.12	2.79	3.05	5.3
Matt Thornton		169.2	9.87	2.81	0.53	0.316	48.10%	7.50%	3.24	2.63	2.89	4.7
David Robertson		168.1	12.14	4.54	0.48	0.313	44.60%	6.80%	2.41	2.65	2.97	4.6
Mike Adams		180.1	9.03	2.4	0.4	0.262	43.80%	4.50%	1.85	2.48	3.18	4.6
Rafael Betancourt	168	10.82	1.39	1.07	0.273	30.60%	9.40%	3.11	2.67	2.77	4.5
John Axford		180.2	11.16	3.89	0.6	0.304	48.40%	8.10%	2.99	2.79	3	3.9
Carlos Marmol		190	13.55	6.35	0.43	0.297	39.10%	5.50%	3.46	3.07	3.56	3.9
Tyler Clippard		234.2	10.89	3.57	0.88	0.238	26.20%	7.40%	2.57	3.16	3.6	3.6
Joel Hanrahan		185	10.51	3.16	0.63	0.283	44.90%	7.60%	2.68	2.79	3.08	3.6
Jonny Venters		212.2	10.28	4.44	0.38	0.288	69.60%	11.70%	2.2	3.06	2.98	3.3
Heath Bell	1	80.2	8.87	3.59	0.4	0.306	44.10%	4.50%	3.14	2.92	3.61	3.2
Jim Johnson		168	5.79	2.04	0.54	0.273	60.90%	8.50%	2.95	3.33	3.47	3
Wilton Lopez		185	7.1	1.36	0.63	0.303	57.10%	9.50%	2.72	2.93	2.97	2.9
Joaquin Benoit		174.1	10.22	2.27	1.14	0.24	38.30%	11.60%	2.53	3.24	3.03	2.8
Francisco Rodriguez	181.2	9.86	3.72	0.69	0.315	45.80%	8.40%	3.22	3.18	3.37	2.6
Jason Motte		172	9.21	2.56	0.73	0.256	42.30%	7.80%	2.41	3.05	3.36	2.6
Eric O'Flaherty		160.1	7.75	2.98	0.39	0.282	58.90%	6.90%	1.74	3.01	3.26	2.6
Casey Janssen		172	8.58	2.2	0.78	0.292	46.30%	9.90%	2.83	3.18	3.2	2.5
Octavio Dotel		160.2	10.76	3.25	0.95	0.259	33.80%	8.70%	3.59	3.23	3.42	2.4
Brandon League		190	6.3	2.79	0.52	0.287	56.20%	8.00%	3.46	3.41	3.62	2.4
Jesse Crain		166	9.38	3.9	0.81	0.26	36.10%	7.70%	2.66	3.47	3.8	2.3
Joel Peralta		167.2	9.39	2.09	1.02	0.211	27.30%	8.20%	2.79	3.18	3.52	2.3
Chris Perez		166.1	8.06	3.52	0.65	0.248	33.30%	5.70%	2.81	3.53	4.24	2.3
Grant Balfour		173.2	8.45	3.06	0.78	0.233	34.90%	7.40%	2.44	3.35	3.76	2.2
Brad Ziegler		167.1	6.19	3.39	0.22	0.281	64.70%	4.90%	2.64	3.22	3.53	2.2
Luke Gregerson		188	8.66	2.49	0.72	0.264	48.70%	9.00%	2.87	3.09	3.2	2.1
Jose Valverde		185	8.22	4.23	0.63	0.243	44.80%	6.70%	2.87	3.69	4.15	2.1
Sean Burnett		166	7.7	2.71	0.65	0.278	55.20%	9.60%	2.66	3.27	3.31	2
Kameron Loe		182.1	7.31	2.22	0.74	0.292	59.70%	12.30%	3.31	3.35	3.16	2
Hisanori Takahashi	167.1	8.23	3.07	0.81	0.269	39.60%	8.00%	3.33	3.42	3.73	2
Burke Badenhop		184.1	6.59	2.73	0.59	0.301	55.00%	8.20%	3.86	3.47	3.67	1.7
Alfredo Aceves		165.2	6.79	2.93	0.81	0.23	40.60%	7.50%	2.82	3.97	4.41	1.5
Craig Breslow		184.2	7.9	3.17	0.88	0.279	36.30%	7.50%	3.17	3.7	4.1	1.3
Ramon Ramirez		188.1	7.36	3.87	0.62	0.26	44.00%	6.00%	3.15	3.66	4.25	1.2
Cristhian Martinez	161.2	7.46	1.89	0.89	0.278	49.10%	11.00%	3.73	3.37	3.29	1.1
Shawn Camp		198.2	5.53	2.58	0.77	0.303	52.00%	8.90%	3.58	3.96	4.11	1.1
Edward Mujica		192.1	7.72	1.36	1.26	0.259	47.50%	13.40%	3.37	3.67	3.2	1.1
Mitchell Boggs		183	7.03	3.05	0.64	0.283	51.90%	8.20%	3.15	3.59	3.8	1.1
Matt Capps		167	5.98	1.83	1.13	0.279	44.80%	10.70%	3.4	4.05	3.93	0.8
Jose Veras		169	10.07	5.11	0.85	0.281	39.20%	9.30%	4.05	3.88	3.98	0.7
Matt Albers		185.1	7.14	4.03	0.92	0.283	52.70%	11.40%	3.98	4.28	4.11	0.6
Jamey Wright		173	6.09	4.21	0.52	0.294	61.40%	9.10%	3.75	4.06	4.11	0.3
Francisco Cordero	181.2	6.54	3.77	0.99	0.289	44.90%	10.10%	4.11	4.41	4.39	-0.1
Chad Qualls		177.2	5.88	2.74	1.06	0.326	55.80%	13.20%	5.22	4.24	3.86	-0.4
Chad Durbin		184.1	7.76	3.56	1.37	0.297	42.80%	12.70%	4.25	4.63	4.21	-0.7
Tony Sipp		165.2	9.24	4.29	1.52	0.244	29.00%	12.20%	3.86	4.69	4.28	-0.7
Logan Ondrusek		164.1	6.02	3.89	1.04	0.248	46.80%	10.10%	3.4	4.58	4.58	-0.7

And here's how they rank in those categories:

Name			IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
Sean Marshall		5	9	13	2	44	10	5	7	1	1	1
Jonathan Papelbon	22	4	14	24	38	36	13	30	3	3	2
Matt Belisle		2	26	4	14	48	16	18	24	7	10	3
Matt Thornton		32	13	22	11	47	20	13	30	4	4	4
David Robertson		34	2	47	8	45	29	9	4	5	5	5
Mike Adams		25	19	12	5	15	32	1	2	2	13	5
Rafael Betancourt	35	6	3	44	18	46	34	23	6	2	7
John Axford		22	3	39	14	42	19	23	22	7	8	8
Carlos Marmol		7	1	49	7	36	39	4	37	15	26	8
Tyler Clippard		1	5	34	35	4	49	11	9	17	27	10
Joel Hanrahan		12	8	28	17	27	25	17	13	7	11	10
Jonny Venters		3	10	46	3	31	1	44	3	14	7	12
Heath Bell		22	20	35	5	43	30	1	25	10	28	13
Jim Johnson		35	48	7	12	18	4	28	21	25	23	14
Wilton Lopez		12	37	1	17	40	7	35	14	11	5	15
Joaquin Benoit		27	11	11	46	5	40	43	8	23	9	16
Francisco Rodriguez	20	14	36	23	46	24	27	29	18	21	17
Jason Motte		30	18	16	26	10	34	20	4	13	20	17
Eric O'Flaherty		49	30	24	4	26	6	10	1	12	17	17
Casey Janssen		30	22	9	29	33	23	37	18	18	14	20
Octavio Dotel		48	7	30	39	11	44	29	40	22	22	21
Brandon League		7	42	21	9	30	8	21	37	29	29	21
Jesse Crain		42	16	41	31	13	42	18	11	31	33	23
Joel Peralta		37	15	8	41	1	48	24	15	18	24	23
Chris Perez		41	27	32	21	8	45	6	16	33	44	23
Grant Balfour		28	23	26	29	3	43	11	6	26	32	26
Brad Ziegler		38	43	31	1	24	2	3	10	21	25	26
Luke Gregerson		10	21	14	25	16	18	31	19	16	14	28
Jose Valverde		12	25	44	17	6	27	8	19	37	42	28
Sean Burnett		42	32	18	21	20	11	36	11	24	19	30
Kameron Loe		19	35	10	27	33	5	46	32	26	12	30
Hisanori Takahashi	38	24	27	31	17	36	21	33	30	31	30
Burke Badenhop		16	40	19	13	38	12	24	43	31	30	33
Alfredo Aceves		44	39	23	31	2	35	13	17	41	48	34
Craig Breslow		15	28	29	35	22	41	13	28	38	38	35
Ramon Ramirez		9	34	38	16	13	31	7	26	35	45	36
Cristhian Martinez	47	33	6	37	20	17	41	41	28	18	37
Shawn Camp		4	49	17	28	40	14	30	39	40	39	37
Edward Mujica		6	31	1	47	11	21	49	34	36	14	37
Mitchell Boggs		18	38	25	20	27	15	24	26	34	33	37
Matt Capps		40	46	5	45	22	27	40	35	42	36	41
Jose Veras		33	12	48	34	24	38	33	46	39	37	42
Matt Albers		11	36	42	38	27	13	42	45	45	39	43
Jamey Wright		29	44	43	9	35	3	32	42	43	39	44
Francisco Cordero	20	41	37	40	32	25	38	47	46	47	45
Chad Qualls		26	47	20	43	49	9	48	49	44	35	46
Chad Durbin		16	29	33	48	36	33	47	48	48	43	47
Tony Sipp		44	17	45	49	7	47	45	43	49	46	47
Logan Ondrusek		46	45	39	42	8	22	38	35	47	49	47

It seems to me that one of these things is not like the other.

Enjoy!

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

Can anybody find an example of a pitcher that long term had periperhals similar to what Ondrusek has this year, but still managed a consistently solid ERA for their career? I'm guessing in a large sample it doesn't exist. But I think you would need some comps in order to make a convincing case for him not being awful.

David Weathers during his Red's career might be pretty close.

[RedsManRick]

I don't know why you people can't accept a simple fact. Logan Ondrusek might not miss a lot of bats. He might walk a lot of people. And he may give up more than his fair share of homers. But the man is extremely talented at limiting his BABIP and stranding runners.

If sabermetrics has taught us anything, it's that pitchers can suck at everything else and still put up a lower BABIP than Mariano Rivera. You guys need to get out of your mother's basement and watch some baseball. Clearly Ondrusek is one of this team's best options in high leverage situations.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I don't know why you people can't accept a simple fact. Logan Ondrusek might not miss a lot of bats. He might walk a lot of people. And he may give up more than his fair share of homers. But the man is extremely talented at limiting his BABIP and stranding runners.

If sabermetrics has taught us anything, it's that pitchers can suck at everything else and still put up a lower BABIP than Mariano Rivera. You guys need to get out of your mother's basement and watch some baseball. Clearly Ondrusek is one of this team's best options in high leverage situations.

Why the nasty post? Who in this thread is calling Ondrusek a stud?

[757690]

Originally Posted by nate

I think a good way to look at it is to take the last three year's performance, compare it to his peers who have pitched a similar amount of innings and rank them.

So here are some of their stats from 2010 - 2012, minimum IP: 160.

It seems to me that one of these things is not like the other.

Enjoy!

Thanks For the work.

My main take away from that is that very few middle relievers last as long as Ondusek has. Most of the pitchers on that lis(at least 35 by my count) were either closers or set up men or LOOGY's during those years.

Of the remaining 15 or saw actual middle relievers, Ondrusek is middle of the pack in terms of K's, BB's, HR's and top of the pack in terms of GB's and BABIP.

[757690]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I don't know why you people can't accept a simple fact. Logan Ondrusek might not miss a lot of bats. He might walk a lot of people. And he may give up more than his fair share of homers. But the man is extremely talented at limiting his BABIP and stranding runners.

If sabermetrics has taught us anything, it's that pitchers can suck at everything else and still put up a lower BABIP than Mariano Rivera. You guys need to get out of your mother's basement and watch some baseball. Clearly Ondrusek is one of this team's best options in high leverage situations.

For the record, all snark aside, the one thing that Sabermetrics has taught us, is that our understanding of stats is constantly evolving. We actually are learning that our recent perceptions and opinions on BABIP were not fully correct.

[757690]

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

Can anybody find an example of a pitcher that long term had periperhals similar to what Ondrusek has this year, but still managed a consistently solid ERA for their career? I'm guessing in a large sample it doesn't exist. But I think you would need some comps in order to make a convincing case for him not being awful.

I agree that guy probably doesn't exist, but that doesn't mean that Ondrusek has been awful. It just means that middle relievers who can get by on low BABIP based on throwing a lot of GB's and nothing else, don't last long in the majors. And it makes sense why they were successful for a short period of time, but not a long period,

[VR]

Originally Posted by 757690

For the record, all snark aside, the one thing that Sabermetrics has taught us, is that our understanding of stats is constantly evolving. We actually are learning that our recent perceptions and opinions on BABIP were not fully correct.

The babip love affair was one that I couldn't understand. Very close to the 'steroids can't make you hit a homerun' theory.

[nate]

Originally Posted by 757690

For the record, all snark aside, the one thing that Sabermetrics has taught us, is that our understanding of stats is constantly evolving. We actually are learning that our recent perceptions and opinions on BABIP were not fully correct.

Really? What were "our" perceptions and opinions and what is the "correct" way of viewing it now?

[Tom Servo]

Good post nate, high five.

[kaldaniels]

I consider (how ever embarrassing it is to you) myself to think along the same lines as both of you guys, Ed and Brutus. So I'm just suprised to see you both totally rejecting the notion that Logan is not expected to do well going forward.

[mth123]

David Weathers as a Red:

398.2 IP, ERA+ 112, K/9 6.4, BB/9 3.7, HR/9 0.9

Logan Ondrusek:

164.1 I, ERA+ 120, K/9 6.0, BB/9 3.9, HR/9 1.0