If he keeps it up, when should Billy Hamilton be promoted?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by powersackers

Hamilton not in the same class? In terms of contribution to the team I disagree. Bruce year 1 -0.3 WAR, not hard to keep up with that class. Year 2 0.8 WAR, again doesn't take much to whoop that class. Year 3 4.6 WAR - now we're talking. Year 4 whoops a 1.2 WAR.

Hamilton's first 4 years won't beat that? I guess we'll see.

Fangraphs WAR >>>> BRef WAR.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...ition=OF#value

But I am more talking about the hitting side of things. Billy Hamilton is never going to be in the same class as Bruce or Votto. When Bruce was Hamilton's age he was tearing apart AAA. Absolutely obliterating it and that was after absolutely obliterating A+/AA/AAA the year before too. Votto wasn't quite as fast to the scene as Bruce was, but he too was on a different level offensively. Of course both played positions where they needed to be. But taking that aside, both had an offensive game that translated much better because their entire offensive game didn't rely on not striking out. Hamilton's will because he isn't going to hit you 5 home runs in a season. Right now, Hamilton still strikes out too much for someone with his type of offensive gameplan. He is making some strides in his plate discipline, which is good and helpful. But he still was showing pitch recognition and balance problems when I saw him earlier this month. The same kind of things he showed last year. To be honest, if Hamilton is ever able to post a .750 OPS in the Majors, I would be surprised. Not that he can't be a very valuable player if that is all he can do, because he can be a very good one with a limited bat like that. But it is much more difficult to be a very valuable player when your bat is limited like that. Something that Bruce or Votto never have had a limitation on when it comes to their game and value.

Here is what I envision an ideal line for Hamilton when he is near his offensive peak. You can tweak the numbers a little bit if you want to, but I think it paints a fairly good idea of what he can become

PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SH	SF	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP
600	534	150	30	10	3	54	102	5	5	2	.281	.351	.391	.341

I went with a 9% walk rate and a 15% strikeout rate.

There is nothing wrong with that kind of offense from someone that will play the positions he will play. But, if his BABIP falls down into the .320 range, we are looking at a .700 OPS hitter rather than a .740 OPS hitter. If it falls down to a .300 BABIP, then you are looking at a .680 OPS hitter.

Of course the high steal rate along with a lot of steals make his offensive value a little more than his OPS line by itself would indicate, but my point remains that he needs to still significantly cut his strikeout rate down if he is going to be some kind of 'sure thing' from an offensive perspective. So far, outside of his year in the GCL, he has been at 17.7%, 21.8% and this year at 17.3%.

[Dan]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I'm really shocked at his power numbers. Thought he'd be simply a slap hitter with amazing speed. Seems like he's becoming more well rounded. Wish they'd move him to LF. Kid might be the future leadoff hitter this team has needed for years.

Remember that he's playing in a bandbox at the moment in Bakersfield. That will enhance anyone's power numbers.

[Jamz]

You're underestimating Billy Hamilton again. Although it's hard to compare because of age differences, Billy Hamilton is currently sporting a .500 wOBA and a wRC+ of 216. Both of which neither Votto or Bruce came close to in the minors.

He's not a power hitter, but right now he's showing the ability to be a very effective hitter and an extremely valuable hitter. Hamilton is a top tier prospect for sure. He doesn't need to hit homeruns to be one of the better hitting prospects in the league -- the fact that he can likely leg out almost any infield hit and turn it into 1 or 2 more bases with his speed makes him almost as effective from a pure hitting standpoint.

Originally Posted by Dan

Remember that he's playing in a bandbox at the moment in Bakersfield. That will enhance anyone's power numbers.

He only has 1 homerun. His speed can be attributed to his slugging more than anything else.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Dan

Remember that he's playing in a bandbox at the moment in Bakersfield. That will enhance anyone's power numbers.

Actually, Hamilton is the kind of hitter that it doesn't have as much on as others, because he isn't hitting home runs. Now, the thinner air does come into play some. Here are the different park factors for the Cal League:

TM	         RC	H	2B	HR	BB	K
Bakersfield	1.02	1.00	1.07	1.08	1.01	1.00
High Desert	1.19	1.08	1.05	1.31	1.03	0.99
Inland Empire	0.90	0.96	0.95	0.81	0.98	1.00
Lake Elsinore	0.93	0.98	0.97	0.81	1.00	0.97
Lancaster	1.10	1.04	1.02	1.23	1.02	0.96
Modesto	        0.96	1.00	1.10	0.74	1.02	1.00
Rancho C.	0.96	0.98	0.98	0.95	0.99	1.00
San Jose	0.96	0.99	0.99	1.01	0.94	1.01
Stockton	1.00	0.98	0.91	1.16	1.02	1.05
Visalia	        1.00	0.98	1.01	1.06	1.02	1.04

The league overall boosts home runs and doubles. Bakersfield in general really boosts doubles and home runs, but Hamilton isn't going to see the benefits from the home runs. Of course, with his speed, he will see a boost in both doubles and triples thanks to his home ballpark and several other in the league are pretty double friendly as well.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Jamz

You're underestimating Billy Hamilton again. Although it's hard to compare because of age differences, Billy Hamilton is currently sporting a .500 wOBA and a wRC+ of 216. Both of which neither Votto or Bruce came close to in the minors.

Where am I underestimating him? What numbers were incorrect? I am up for the discussion, but tell me where you are disagreeing with me on his numbers.

He's not a power hitter, but right now he's showing the ability to be a very effective hitter and an extremely valuable hitter. Hamilton is a top tier prospect for sure. He doesn't need to hit homeruns to be one of the better hitting prospects in the league -- the fact that he can likely leg out almost any infield hit and turn it into 1 or 2 more bases with his speed makes him almost as effective from a pure hitting standpoint.

Hamilton is fast, but he hit .194 on infield groundballs in Low-A. That number is going to get worse each season as he faces better fielders with more range, better fields, better arms and better first baseman.

[billy bob]

Can someone tell me how many bunt hits Billy has this year? I know the other night he went (3 for 4) but 2 of those hits were bunt singles whereas both could have been for sac. bunts if he had made an out. Don't remember him bunting that much last year.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I think he will spend most of his time in Bakersfield. With Didi/Greene being prospects as well ahead of him in the middle infield, then guys on the 40 man roster playing in AAA, promotions may not be easy to come by.

IMO the Reds don't see Hamilton as just another prospect who has to wait in line.

This guy is a special prospect because he can disrupt games with his base running.

I think the Reds see this and will promote him as quickly as his ability allows. I do not think the Reds will care very much whether Didi Gregorius or Brodie Greene is holding down a position at AA. Billy's rise to the big leagues will be the top priority.

Which is not to say he will immediately be promoted. But as soon as they think he can handle it, Billy will be AA. The Reds have big plans for this guy in terms of baseball and marketing.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

IMO the Reds don't see Hamilton as just another prospect who has to wait in line.

This guy is a special prospect because he can disrupt games with his base running.

I think the Reds see this and will promote him as quickly as his ability allows. I do not think the Reds will care very much whether Didi Gregorius or Brodie Greene is holding down a position at AA. Billy's rise to the big leagues will be the top priority.

Which is not to say he will immediately be promoted. But as soon as they think he can handle it, Billy will be AA. The Reds have big plans for this guy in terms of baseball and marketing.

I think you are drastically underestimating how much the Reds like Gregorius. He is viewed as a better shortstop defensively and his bat is similar with more upside.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I think you are drastically underestimating how much the Reds like Gregorius. He is viewed as a better shortstop defensively and his bat is similar with more upside.

You miss my point.

It doesn't matter whether Didi grades out higher than Billy. It is irrelevant.

Hamilton has something no other prospect in the Reds system has. Hamilton is a star.

The Reds are likely drooling at the thought of Hamilton running wild on the bases at GABP. He will bring attention. Fans. TV exposure. And probably will be a good player to boot.

This is not about Xs and Os. It's not about scouting or metrics. It's not about whether Gregorius is a better shortstop. It is about star quality.

The minute the Reds think Hamilton can play reasonably well at GABP he will be there and he will be all over the ads for Reds' baseball. Billy may play SS, second, the outfield - it doesn't matter. This is about watching Billy run.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

You miss my point.

It doesn't matter whether Didi grades out higher than Billy. It is irrelevant.

Hamilton has something no other prospect in the Reds system has. Hamilton is a star.

The Reds are likely drooling at the thought of Hamilton running wild on the bases at GABP. He will bring attention. Fans. TV exposure. And probably will be a good player to boot.

This is not about Xs and Os. It's not about scouting or metrics. It's not about whether Gregorius is a better shortstop. It is about star quality.

The minute the Reds think Hamilton can play reasonably well at GABP he will be there and he will be all over the ads for Reds' baseball. Billy may play SS, second, the outfield - it doesn't matter. This is about watching Billy run.

If it isn't about who is the better player, then what is it about? The team is there to win.

I could care less about watching Billy Hamilton run if it means he is playing over someone who would make the Reds win more games. Maybe the Reds don't think that way, but they should. Right now, I can't say whether or not Hamilton is better than Gregorius. I don't know if he will eventually be better than Stubbs. Currently, both guys are better than him (and they should be, they are older and have more experience with tools and skills that match or exceed his sans speed).

[lollipopcurve]

You miss my point.

It doesn't matter whether Didi grades out higher than Billy. It is irrelevant.

Hamilton has something no other prospect in the Reds system has. Hamilton is a star.

The Reds are likely drooling at the thought of Hamilton running wild on the bases at GABP. He will bring attention. Fans. TV exposure. And probably will be a good player to boot.

This is not about Xs and Os. It's not about scouting or metrics. It's not about whether Gregorius is a better shortstop. It is about star quality.

The minute the Reds think Hamilton can play reasonably well at GABP he will be there and he will be all over the ads for Reds' baseball. Billy may play SS, second, the outfield - it doesn't matter. This is about watching Billy run.

This is correct. It is the same thing the Reds have in Chapman. These are two potentially significant marketing bumps the Reds can realize out of their talent pool -- pretty amazing given how they've been capitalizing on their star-quality talent lately.

Key, though, is that they have to be reasonably sure Hamilton and Chapman will succeed. I think they've probably learned from trying to market Bailey too quickly. It's going to take another year or so with Hamilton. Chapman is pretty much ready to step forward, and they better be sure he's not going to regress in his one-innig stints as a setup guy....

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

This is correct. It is the same thing the Reds have in Chapman. These are two potentially significant marketing bumps the Reds can realize out of their talent pool -- pretty amazing given how they've been capitalizing on their star-quality talent lately.

Key, though, is that they have to be reasonably sure Hamilton and Chapman will succeed. I think they've probably learned from trying to market Bailey too quickly. It's going to take another year or so with Hamilton. Chapman is pretty much ready to step forward, and they better be sure he's not going to regress in his one-innig stints as a setup guy....

Difference is, Chapman doesn't have guys better than him at his role. Chapman is one of the best guys for the bullpen we have. We know that for sure.

We don't know at this point whether or not Hamilton will be the best option for shortstop, second base or center field. Huge difference.

I would hope that a professional baseball team in 2012+ has the foresight to play the guy who is best for the job, not the guy who might excite a few extra fans over the course of a month until they figure out he isn't the best (if that happens to be the case) for the spot.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Difference is, Chapman doesn't have guys better than him at his role. Chapman is one of the best guys for the bullpen we have. We know that for sure.

We don't know at this point whether or not Hamilton will be the best option for shortstop, second base or center field. Huge difference.

I would hope that a professional baseball team in 2012+ has the foresight to play the guy who is best for the job, not the guy who might excite a few extra fans over the course of a month until they figure out he isn't the best (if that happens to be the case) for the spot.

There is no difference. The situation with Chapman and Hamilton are the same. They are stars. People want to see them. They will be Reds regardless of position, of team need, of other prospects, whatever.

That's why the Reds gave Joey $225 million. They see him as an anchor, a star, an attraction. His baseball skills are great, but this Reds management wants revenue. It wants fan interest. That revenue will ultimately breed baseball success.

Right now, Chapman is a reliever. He has control problems, we don't know if he will be a great starter.

But he is a star. The Reds will find a role for him. He will be here as long as he can throw missiles and he wants to stay.

Notice that Chappy didn't spend 2012 in AAA, as some projected. He may spend a bit of time there, but very little. The Reds want him on the team. Now.

If there are better prospects than Hamilton, they will change his position. Billy could easily wind up in LF. They want him to run. They think he will attract fans, interest, and revenue and they are probably correct.

This Reds management, I believe, is living in the modern world. The big recent signings show that. The team will succeed, I believe, because management is focused on attracting fan interest. I think it will work, and Hamilton is part of that plan.

All of this transcends Xs and Os. There is more at work here. The goal of having a truly top flight organization and an exciting team fans want to see. Winning will eventually result.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by OGB

Message board sports fans are a notoriously impatient and fickle lot, so I'm just curious what people's thoughts are on promoting Billy if he continues to terrorize hitter friendly high A. Of course, there is the issue of Gregorious ahead of him in Pensacola, but he's likely looking at a promotion to AAA at some point this year, most likely sooner rather than later.

If nothing else, I think Hamilton would really help this club in a late season run as a September call up, just on pinch running ability alone.

So this original premise for the poll is whether we think he'll be promoted to the big league club?

My wife, who is stickler for grammar, would note, the pronouns in the bolded sentence aren't that clear. The "him" certainly seems to refer to Hamilton, but the "he" in the second part of the sentence isn't clear. Does that mean Gregorious is likely to be promoted to AAA? Or are you suggesting Hamilton will be?

I agree with those who've said Hamilton needs to find success at each level to boost confidence and to grow as a player. Our days of rushing guys to the big leagues should be (and have been) long past. All in good time, as they say.

[medford]

To me, its pretty simple:

Baring injury Brandon is your everyday 2b for at least the next 3 seasons, and likely beyond so there is no spot there for Billy.

Barring injury and/or total collapse, Zach Cozart is the every day SS the rest of this season and if he keeps up the current pace, the every day SS thru aribtration (so at least 3 more seasons before he could price himself out of the market)

Barring injury and/or total colapse, Drew Stubbs is the everyday CF the rest of this season w/ Chris Heisey the first in line should Stubbs falter. I'm not sure that Billy's every played CF in the minors, so he's totally unpreparred to man that spot this season.

They're not going to play Billy at any other position, at least not at this juncture, so there really is no spot for him on the Reds this season and probably next season barring major injury. Billy also has several canidates in front of him to fill in for injuries, so there is no point in rushing him at this junction.

Let him play out the season in High-A. If he keeps up his current pace, it only enhances his trade value. It won't hurt him to make his round thru the league several times, let oppossing pitchers find holes in his swing, let Billy adjust to their adjustments. If you bump him up to AA you risk him falling into a slump as he adjusts to better pitchers. Sure he could continue the hot bat, but a hot bat in AA probably doesn't enhance his trade value compared to a hot bat in a hitters league in high-A as much as a cold bat in AA would hurt his trade value.

By leaving him where he's at, I think you can benefit his development in terms of seeing the same pitchers several times around; let him develop his defense. There's no spot for him in the majors this season, and likely next season so why rush him. Next season, if he starts out hot in AA, then a mid-season bump to AAA could be in the cards with an eye towards 2014 becoming a regular in the majors. When is stubbs arbitration eligible? I want to say 2014, if so, that's awfully convienent time frame to have Billy playing CF in the majors.