Is this the real Homer Bailey? - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

RedEye · 05-24-2012, 10:18 PM

Quality starts in 7 of 9 games this year, and he no longer seems to wilt so quickly under pressure. The Braves are a very good hitting team, and he looked solid this evening.

Many argue that his biggest problem over the past few years has been health -- something he seems to have figured out this year *KNOCK ON WOOD* 6.7 Kd9 has me a bit worried that this is all a mirage though (I think even that number has seen an uptick over his last few outings though).

Thoughts? Is this a sustainable performance level for our favorite erstwhile elite pitching prospect? And is this as good as it gets for Homer?

Homer Bailey · 05-24-2012, 10:25 PM

I've argued that Homer is a much better pitcher than his ERA has shown the past few years because of his strong K rate. His K rate has fallen pretty far, but his results have been slightly better so far this year. I'm a bit nervous that it's a mirage, because of the ratios, so I'm not thumping my chest just yet.

VR · 05-24-2012, 10:26 PM

.500 record w/ a 4.19 earnie? Yes, I believe that is who Homer is and will be his entire career.

jhu1321 · 05-24-2012, 10:58 PM

Most of that era came from one bad start against the Brewers. he keeps this up he'll be well over .500 and his ERA will be in the low 3's.

dougdirt · 05-24-2012, 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jhu1321

Most of that era came from one bad start against the Brewers. he keeps this up he'll be well over .500 and his ERA will be in the low 3's.

3.42 ERA in every game except the Brewers game. Needs to avoid the 'Brewers game', but Bailey has been pretty darn good this year.

Superdude · 05-24-2012, 11:26 PM

I'll take him every day as a #4 guy. Nice to see him finally getting some movement on that splitter. It all comes down to the fastball though IMO. If he stays healthy and gets that late season velocity spike ala 2010, this division will be staring at tail pipe all summer long.

RedEye · 05-24-2012, 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

I've argued that Homer is a much better pitcher than his ERA has shown the past few years because of his strong K rate. His K rate has fallen pretty far, but his results have been slightly better so far this year. I'm a bit nervous that it's a mirage, because of the ratios, so I'm not thumping my chest just yet.

Ridiculously small sample size caveats understood, he does have 13 K in his last 12 innings, which would put the Kd9 back up in good company indeed.

Topcat · 05-24-2012, 11:48 PM

I hope so , sadly because of the hype he is expected to do more but he is still very young and I want to keep him as a Reds fan.

WVRedsFan · 05-25-2012, 12:11 AM

I'm not worried about what he does beyond his next start. So far, so good. Do I expect him to win the Cy Young? No. As a fourth starter, he's doing pretty good. Will he ever be an ace? Nope.

marcshoe · 05-25-2012, 01:14 AM

I've been saying for a while now that I expect Homer to turn into a solid major league starter and remain one for a long while. I want to believe that this is what we're seeing now. I know he's pitched well at times before, but I think he's settling in now.

It's entirely possible that as Bronson ages, Homer will take his place as the dependable mid-rotation guy that keeps teams from falling apart.

Redhook · 05-25-2012, 07:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedEye

Quality starts in 7 of 9 games this year

This really doesn't have anything to do with Homer, but why is it considered a quality start when someone gives up 3 runs in 6 innings? A 4.50 era is almost garbage, not quality, especially with the league-wide era decreases in recent years. It should be 6 innings giving up 2 or less runs like Homer did last night. I don't get it.

dougdirt · 05-25-2012, 07:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redhook

This really doesn't have anything to do with Homer, but why is it considered a quality start when someone gives up 3 runs in 6 innings? A 4.50 era is almost garbage, not quality, especially with the league-wide era decreases in recent years. It should be 6 innings giving up 2 or less runs like Homer did last night. I don't get it.

Probably because if you give up 3 runs in 6 innings you gave your team a chance to win the game.

MikeS21 · 05-25-2012, 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redhook

This really doesn't have anything to do with Homer, but why is it considered a quality start when someone gives up 3 runs in 6 innings? A 4.50 era is almost garbage, not quality, especially with the league-wide era decreases in recent years. It should be 6 innings giving up 2 or less runs like Homer did last night. I don't get it.

I think also that it should depend on who you are playing. Holding a team like the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, or Rangers to three runs over six innings is a far better start than holding the Pirates, Cubs, or Twins to three runs over six innings.

dunner13 · 05-25-2012, 08:07 AM

I haven't watched a ton of homer pitching this year so I could be wrong but it seems like his fastball is sitting 90-92? I thought this was a guy who threw 94-95? Am I wrong did he never throw that hard or did he develop a cut fastball or something?

MikeS21 · 05-25-2012, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dunner13

I haven't watched a ton of homer pitching this year so I could be wrong but it seems like his fastball is sitting 90-92? I thought this was a guy who threw 94-95? Am I wrong did he never throw that hard or did he develop a cut fastball or something?

He has scaled back a notch, but I saw a LOT of 93 mph fastballs last night and a few 94 mph fastballs. His last start, I remember seeing at least three 95 mph fastballs, and even one 96 mph heater. But mostly, he sits around 91-93.

IMO, the harder he throws, the straighter the pitches. Maybe it is just me, but he seems to have better movement at 92 than he does at 95 mph.

05-24-2012, 10:18 PM	#1
RedEye Ojo Rojo Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Moving to Atlanta in July Posts: 5,025	Is this the real Homer Bailey? Quality starts in 7 of 9 games this year, and he no longer seems to wilt so quickly under pressure. The Braves are a very good hitting team, and he looked solid this evening. Many argue that his biggest problem over the past few years has been health -- something he seems to have figured out this year KNOCK ON WOOD 6.7 Kd9 has me a bit worried that this is all a mirage though (I think even that number has seen an uptick over his last few outings though). Thoughts? Is this a sustainable performance level for our favorite erstwhile elite pitching prospect? And is this as good as it gets for Homer?

05-24-2012, 10:25 PM	#2
Homer Bailey I'm back... and forth Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 4,612	Re: Is this the real Homer Bailey? I've argued that Homer is a much better pitcher than his ERA has shown the past few years because of his strong K rate. His K rate has fallen pretty far, but his results have been slightly better so far this year. I'm a bit nervous that it's a mirage, because of the ratios, so I'm not thumping my chest just yet.

05-24-2012, 10:26 PM	#3
VR Member Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: Vancouver, Wa Posts: 8,265	Re: Is this the real Homer Bailey? .500 record w/ a 4.19 earnie? Yes, I believe that is who Homer is and will be his entire career. __________________ “Our team is a team full of fighters. They never panic. We don't necessarily get all the hits we want all the time, but we find a way to win.” – Dusty Baker

05-24-2012, 11:26 PM	#6
Superdude Member Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 2,468	Re: Is this the real Homer Bailey? I'll take him every day as a #4 guy. Nice to see him finally getting some movement on that splitter. It all comes down to the fastball though IMO. If he stays healthy and gets that late season velocity spike ala 2010, this division will be staring at tail pipe all summer long.

05-24-2012, 11:48 PM	#8
Topcat Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1,929	Re: Is this the real Homer Bailey? I hope so , sadly because of the hype he is expected to do more but he is still very young and I want to keep him as a Reds fan. __________________ 2006 Redzone mock Draftee's- 1(st) Daniel Bard(redsox), 1(st sup)( Jordan Walden (Angels), 2(nd) rd.- Zach Britton(Orioles), 3(rd) Blair Erickson(Cardinals), 3(rd) Tim Norton( Yankees),(cuz its a Tim Hortons thing Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory... lasts forever.

05-24-2012, 10:58 PM	#4
jhu1321 Member Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 381	Most of that era came from one bad start against the Brewers. he keeps this up he'll be well over .500 and his ERA will be in the low 3's.

05-25-2012, 12:11 AM	#9
WVRedsFan Lime in da Coconut Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: Rainelle, WV Posts: 7,727	Re: Is this the real Homer Bailey? I'm not worried about what he does beyond his next start. So far, so good. Do I expect him to win the Cy Young? No. As a fourth starter, he's doing pretty good. Will he ever be an ace? Nope. __________________ www.ris-news.com "The price of seeking to force our beliefs on others is that someday they might force their beliefs on us." Mario Cuomo "You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5." -Beano Cook

05-25-2012, 01:14 AM	#10
marcshoe Ex-tixe Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Just past Mars Posts: 4,526	Re: Is this the real Homer Bailey? I've been saying for a while now that I expect Homer to turn into a solid major league starter and remain one for a long while. I want to believe that this is what we're seeing now. I know he's pitched well at times before, but I think he's settling in now. It's entirely possible that as Bronson ages, Homer will take his place as the dependable mid-rotation guy that keeps teams from falling apart. __________________ At the Edge of the Woods Preview Go to the edge of the cliff and jump off. Build your wings on the way down. --Ray Bradbury

05-25-2012, 08:07 AM	#14
dunner13 Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 593	Re: Is this the real Homer Bailey? I haven't watched a ton of homer pitching this year so I could be wrong but it seems like his fastball is sitting 90-92? I thought this was a guy who threw 94-95? Am I wrong did he never throw that hard or did he develop a cut fastball or something?

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