What's wrong with Tim Lincecum?

[Blitz Dorsey]

I'll always wonder "What could have been" if the Reds had drafted Tim Lincecum like many of us expected/hoped in the '06 draft instead of Drew Stubbs. Lincecum becomes the youngest player in MLB history to win two Cy Young awards and it looked like a move that the Reds would regret for ages.

However, after a down year last season (that many wrote off as an aberration and/or fatigue from pitching so much during the WS championship year of 2010) Lincecum has been one of the worst starters in the NL more than 1/4th of the way through the season.

His ERA is now up to 6.41. He used to be one of the hardest guys to hit in the league, but has given up 57 hits in 53.1 innings. He does have 58 strikeouts, but that's nothing impressive for his standards. He's also walked a whopping 28.

For those that follow the Giants (or follow Lincecum closer than I) has he lost velocity? What's the deal here? I can't believe how quickly he has seemingly gone from one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball to (statistically) one of the worst in the NL. And we're going on a full 1.5 years of him being bad. I still think he will turn it around and will at least be good/above average, but he's trending downward and then some. Any explanation? Any guesses? Theories?

[membengal]

I drafted him in fantasy baseball this year.

[Tornon]

I heard that he said it hurts his elbow too much when he throws his slider so he had to stop throwing it. That kinda shoots up red flags for me, in that he's missing a pitch he used to throw and that he could possibly be injured

Edit: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-bi...145050974.html

[DGullett35]

Ive heard his velocity has dropped in each of the last 3 years although not enough to warrant his play this year. Seems like he has fallen in love with the splitter. I think the same thing has happened to Ubaldo Jiminez. Roger Clemens was one of the few players that could throw that pitch year in and year out

[dougdirt]

His fastball velocity is down and has dropped nearly every year since he made his debut. Here is his FB velocity since 2007: 93.6, 94, 92.4, 91.2, 92.2, 89.9.

He has thrown more sliders in each of the last two seasons than ever before and less curveballs than ever each of the last two seasons.

One interesting thing though, as his fastball has lost veloctiy, his change up has stayed exactly the same, never lower than 83.1 MPH on average and never higher than 83.7 MPH on average.

A .353 BABIP isn't helping him and his LOB rate is an insane 59.3% when league average is over 70%. His FIP is 2.94 this season, XFIP is 3.53. So we should expect a rebound of sorts from him assuming he doesn't get injured.

Still, ever declining velocity is a big red flag.

[membengal]

My explanation was shorter.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

His fastball velocity is down and has dropped nearly every year since he made his debut. Here is his FB velocity since 2007: 93.6, 94, 92.4, 91.2, 92.2, 89.9.

He has thrown more sliders in each of the last two seasons than ever before and less curveballs than ever each of the last two seasons.

One interesting thing though, as his fastball has lost veloctiy, his change up has stayed exactly the same, never lower than 83.1 MPH on average and never higher than 83.7 MPH on average.

A .353 BABIP isn't helping him and his LOB rate is an insane 59.3% when league average is over 70%. His FIP is 2.94 this season, XFIP is 3.53. So we should expect a rebound of sorts from him assuming he doesn't get injured.

Still, ever declining velocity is a big red flag.

Doug knocking it out of the park with detailed analysis. Nicely done, thanks. Lincecum's rapid decline makes a lot of sense after reading what you wrote.

[The Operator]

My first guess would be that he's a short right-hander. Add that to his weird delivery and throwing a ton of innings at a young age, it's cause for concern.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by membengal

My explanation was shorter.

LOL

[kaldaniels]

Tip of the hat to SF for extending the right guy.

[KronoRed]

Originally Posted by membengal

I drafted him in fantasy baseball this year.

I destroyed Ian Snell's career that way.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by membengal

I drafted him in fantasy baseball this year.

You should see my pitching staff this year.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

His fastball velocity is down and has dropped nearly every year since he made his debut. Here is his FB velocity since 2007: 93.6, 94, 92.4, 91.2, 92.2, 89.9.

He has thrown more sliders in each of the last two seasons than ever before and less curveballs than ever each of the last two seasons.

One interesting thing though, as his fastball has lost veloctiy, his change up has stayed exactly the same, never lower than 83.1 MPH on average and never higher than 83.7 MPH on average.

A .353 BABIP isn't helping him and his LOB rate is an insane 59.3% when league average is over 70%. His FIP is 2.94 this season, XFIP is 3.53. So we should expect a rebound of sorts from him assuming he doesn't get injured.

Still, ever declining velocity is a big red flag.

I don't see any red flags in velocity until the 89. That's a pretty alarming dip.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by The Operator

My first guess would be that he's a short right-hander. Add that to his weird delivery and throwing a ton of innings at a young age, it's cause for concern.

And that's the exact reasons many teams (including the Reds) were leery of drafting him.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

And that's the exact reasons many teams (including the Reds) were leery of drafting him.

Well, let's not pretend like the Reds made the right choice though. Even if Lincecum would retire right now (which he's obviously not going to) he would have accomplished more in his brief MLB career than Drew Stubbs will likely accomplish if he plays 15 years in MLB. Lincecum has two Cy Youngs and a WS championship under his belt (a WS the Giants don't win without him). That's going to be hard for Stubbs to ever top.

So, while it's interesting that Lincecum is declining so rapidly at such a young age, let's not act like the Reds made the right call. We might be talking about a 2010 WS championship for the Reds if they had drafted Lincecum.